The Mid Sussex view

Well, there can't be much surprise that Nicholas Soames will win. Serena Tierney has thrown the kitchen sink at the campaign, but the nasty Liberal Democrat campaign has not gained traction.

The reception on the doorstep has been both good and warm.

I also think we will have done well holding our by elections.

That said, if I am wrong then I will have to eat humble pie.

Sedgefield by-election prediction

Well here goes:

	Conservative			20.0
	Labour			45.0
	Lib Dem			17.0

My Predictions for Ealing Southall

To be honest I think this is very hard to call. It could go either of 3 ways, but here is my prediction anyway.

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Conservative				34.8
Labour				30.2
Lib Dem				27.9

A Conservative win on a reduced turnout of 47%

That Gordon Brown Honeymoon

When I entered the politicalbetting.com 2007 prediction competition I predicted that Gordon Brown would get a poll bounce of 3% when he took over compared to the average ICM position of the previous 3 months.

Well, the last ICM poll just before he took over had Labour on 38% compared to the Conservatives on 35%.

According to Conservative home, there is a new ICM survey showing Labour on 37% and the Conservatives on 35%.

Hmm.. losing points already after wall to wall positive coverage?

I also predicted that Gordon Brown would be 5% down on his first honeymoon polls after 3 months.

Looks like I was right, or at least the numbers are going the right way.

The Ashenground Story

First of all, this is my first, and indeed Katy Bourne's first campaign. We have not done this before.

We were virgins together! (Don't tell her husband!).

For one reason or another I took the view that I would rather fight a fight than be given a safe seat, only to mess it up, and it was not hard to find a fight.

Ashenground is old ground to me because I know so many people who live in it, and when it came up, I grabbed it, so did Katy.

We have in a month and a half leafleted the ward 5 times, canvased it once, taken on board what people have said and have done what we could. (Including dealing with planning woes, and some anti social behavior, whilst also looking at pot holes)

The result has been that the Liberal Democrats have been hit hard in their safest seat in Haywards Heath and have had to respond. In fact as far as I can tell they have pulled out all the stops.

It has been a hard fight. Katy and I have pulled out all the stops, but we are limited in numbers. We have made the Liberal Democrats fight their corner, but ultimatum speaking it will be all down to who has got their vote out, and the postal votes which are such a shambles I don't know which way it is going to go.

I do know that we pushed them hard and made them work for their vote. I also know that it is no longer a safe seat for the Liberal Democrats, and what is more, I will make sure that it is a safe Conservative seat next time, even if it is not this time.

Mid Sussex ward by ward after poll predictions

As far as I can tell, we will make about 7 gains.

We will gain Heath ward in Haywards Heath, (2 member ward).

We will gain Victoria ward in Burgess Hill, (2 member ward) unseating the Liberal Democrat leader.

We are moderately confident of regaining Lucastes, though postal votes and a three way LD Independent Conservative split makes that difficult to fully call.

We expect to take at least one seat in Herontye ward in East Grinstead.

We also are moderately confident of taking one seat in Leylands ward in Burgess Hill.

Speculation on the other hand is another thing. In East Grinstead we expect we may get another seat, and we will certainly have pushed the Liberal Democrats hard.

Oh, and there is an Independent in Hustpeirpoint who used to be a Conservative, and we expect that seat back.

Mid Sussex District Council predictions

As the final day of campaigning draws to a close, and election day beckons, I thought I would make some predictions about how it will go.

Currently there are 25 Conservative councilors out of 54, with 24 Liberal Democrats, 2 Labour and 3 independent.

We expect to make 7 gains, leaving us with 32 out of 54 councilors, with an outside possibility of another 3.

It does not look like it is going to be a good day for the Liberal Democrats in Mid Sussex.

My other predictions for 2007

Politicalbetting.com is running a prediction competition for 2007, and here is my entry:

On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party None
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Douglas Alexander
6. President of France S Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Barak Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain

For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 280
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 125
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365

What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +3%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -5%

What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 24

Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +4
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -7
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -550
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -75

Which is also here.

Iain Dale has his here.

You can view the whole thread here.

My Predictions for 2007

Here are my predictions for 2007:

• 2007 will start on January the 1st.
• There will be charges in the Cash for Peerages/Honours scandal.
• The threat of charges will cause canaries to sing.
• Charges will be brought for obstructing the police investigation.
  
• Gordon Brown will end up with a coronation in about September.
• There will be no deputy leadership election either on grounds of cost.
• There won't be a snap election, or indeed any in 2007.
• Labour will lose 350 to 500 seats in the May locals.
• Labour will lose control of the Welsh and Scottish Assemblies.
• There will be no consensus on party funding so Labour will force something through which will be unpopular in the country and will be reversed when the government changes hands.

I could go on, but I think that covers it. I think the first prediction is a cert as well ;)

Update 22:14

I forgot to say Happy New Year to every one! I hope you all had a good Christmas!