Conservative Chloe Smith wins Norwich North with majority of 7,000!

Well done to all who campaigned there, this is a fantastic result!

Chloe Smith got 13,591 votes, and a majority over Labour's Chris Ostrowski of 7,348 who got6,243.

That is a swing of 16.6%!

(Source Wikipedia here)

The BBC has this.

SNP win Glasgow East!

Well there you have it, Labour have lost Glasgow East to the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats have been pushed into 4th place behind the Conservatives.

This is a fantastic result!

The question is what does this do for Gordon Brown?

The answer is of course, nothing, as no one in Labour has any balls, not even Yvette Cooper.

Glasgow East, and the winner is: Me!

I am sorry, but I could not resist at 50 to 1 odds on, I had to lay some SNP, so took 40 pence worth!

Then I backed Labour at 7 to 1 and after a while someone took up that bet and so win whoever wins the vote!

That is all about being fast and clever :)

SNP sure favourites to win Glasgow East say punters!

I have just had a look at the Betfair prices and the SNP are sure fire fifty to one odds on favourites.

Spectacular!

Glasgow East: Will Labour lose?

It has to be said that Glasgow East is Labour's 3rd safest seat in Scotland. Some polls have placed Labour 17% ahead of the SNP.

So what happens if Labour lose?

Well the by election has been carefully timed so that MP's are away on holiday until September so we will not know for a while.

Gordon Brown does not have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions!

It appears that Gordon Brown is not intending on fielding a candidate against David Davis. Clearly the man does not have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions (for he has no convictions or indeed courage of his own).

It appears that Rupert Murdoch may have some courage and may put up Kelvin MacKenzie as a candidate instead, who has started off by calling Hull a shocking place! (See Iain Dale here)

The BBC has this.

Conservatives gain Crewe and Nantwich with almost 50% of the vote!

The Conservative party has gained Crewe and Nantwich from Labour!

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Monster Raving Loony	The Flying Brick	236	0.57
Labour	Tamsin Dunwoody	12679	30.5
Independent	Gemma Garrett	113	0.27
UK Independence	Mike Nattrass	922	2.22
English Democrats	David Roberts	275	0.66
Liberal Democrat	Elizabeth Shenton	6040	14.53
Green	Robert Smith	359	0.86
Cut Tax on Diesel and Petrol	Paul Thorogood	118	0.28
Conservative	Edward Timpson	20539	49.41
Independent	Mark Walklate	217	0.52
Spoiled ballots		67
totals		41565

Crewe and Nantwich: Conservatives to get 50%?

this was raised as a possibility earlier but it seems that even Erick Pickles thinks we can get 50% of the vote.

If so, that is outstanding!

Crewe and Nantwich turnout 58.2%!

This is a staggering turnout for a by election.

If the turnout is 58.2% that is impressive.

Wow.

Crewe and Nantwich: Labour's dire predictions!

I have heard from a Labour MP that he thinks the Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be grim.

Ben Brogan has heard similar with some Labour people telling him that they expect the Conservatives to get over 50%.

This is of course slightly nuts as there are 10 candidates and that makes it almost impossible to get over 50%.

The other thing people are watching for is if the swing is higher than Eastbourne in 1990 (20%), because not only did the Conservatives win the seat back at the next general election but also won a majority in the House of Commons. The thinking seems to be that they would win the seat back at the next general election. That analysis misses the way that we got rid of Mrs Thatcher and a few hated policies.

Crewe and Nantwich By Election:My prediction

Well, I predict a Conservative win, but then so does just about everyone else apart from Eric Pickles who is working on the basis that this is an uphill struggle. Fair enough, he is in charge of the campaign and complacency is the quickest way to lose an election.

The big question is what will the fall out be like. Well here is my view:

1. A Conservative win, even by one vote breaks a duck.

2. If the Conservatives achieve a swing of 15% then Labour are in trouble and set to lose the next election.

3. If the Conservatives get a swing of more than 20% Gordon Brown will be dragged out of number 10 by the men in grey suits and shot in the street.

You do have to wonder what place Labour and the Liberal Democrats will come though, and what percentage of the vote they will get.

I sense that die hards of either party will turn out regardless and so they must get at least 10% each, however they have both done immense damage to both their local activist base and core vote by the way they have run their campaign. We shall have to see how bad it gets.

Paddy Power calls Crewe and Nantwich for the Conservatives!

The Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has, according to this article on politicalbetting called the Crewe and Nantwich by election for the Conservatives and paid out on those bets already.

Personally I think this is nuts and unhelpful but then if it is correct then the bookmaker gets a lot of kudos.

There has been a lot of money placed on this by election, pretty much all on the Conservatives. The bookmakers stand to lose a fortune if we win tomorrow.

Labour poll position still dire

It looks like Labour's poll woes continue despite the £2.7 billion bribe and yet another relaunch.

The Sunday Times has news of a Yougov poll with the the Conservatives on 45% (+1), Labour on 25% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1). (Please note the changes are on the last Yougov Sunday Times poll, not the last Yougov poll which had the Conservatives 26% ahead)

The Independent on Sunday has news of a 17% lead in a Comres poll. It places the Conservatives on 43% (+3), Labour on 26% (NC) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (+1).

It should be noted this is the highest percentage that Comres has given the Conservative party. It in combination with other polls shows that Labour is drifting in the mid twenties which should come as a shock to them as that is lower than Michael Foot achieved in 1983, with a manifesto described as the longest suicide note in history.

Things do not look good for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich either with this poll in the News of the World indicating a decisive Conservative victory. It places the Conservatives on 45% compared to Labour on 37% with the Liberal Democrats on 14%.

Draft Queens Speech, my reaction:

Well, Gordon Brown's draft Queens speech was of course a rehash of broken promises and policies lifted from Conservative manifestos and policy documents.

The big question is however, what will be in next weeks relaunch?

The answer is of course, that there will not be one next week, because that will be when Labour lose the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The re-launch will be the following week.

So what will be in that relaunch?

I have no idea, but then, neither has Gordon Brown, he has enough trouble dealing with the panics of today.

The Sun says this whilst the BBC has this.

Tamsin Dunwoody denies Gordon Brown is an asset!

Tansin Dunwoody, Labour's PPC in the Crewe and Nantwich by election has been caught on film refusing to say whether Gordon Brown is an asset to the Labour party or not!



Hat tip to the Crown Blogspot here.

If Gordon is being deserted by candidates before they become MP's what hope has he got?

Is Darling's £120 bung enough?

In what is frankly outstanding news Alistair Darling the Chancellor has given all basic rate tax payers £120 per year by raising personal allowances by £600. Apparently this will not affect higher rate payers.

This does compensate all those who lost from the 10p tax issue, but it does not give all of them their maximum loss. However it does sort things out now. Where it does fall down though is compensating an a lot of people who actually gained by the abolition of the 10p tax band. Suits me though.

So is it enough?

The short answer is yes and no. If it was to buy of Labour rebels led by Frank Field then yes it appears it is. Frank Field even apologised to Gordon Brown in the house for getting personal over the weekend.

If it was in the hope of not losing Crewe and Nantwich, it has not got a hope. For a start the manner in which the concession was dragged out of the government speaks of a government that is aloof, slow and difficult. Secondly the electorate can bank this now and still give the government a good kicking. In short, the Crewe and Nantwich by election will still show a Conservative win.

The BBC has this.

Crewe and Nantwich by election: Who is going to win?

The short answer is I suspect not Labour.

The Conservatives clearly won the local elections there on the 1st of May pushing Labour into 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats. That in my view puts us as clear favourites though the Liberal Democrat by election machine is good.

However both Labour and The Liberal Democrats seem to have irritated their base. The former by undue haste in moving the writ for the by election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral then parachuting her daughter, a Brown loyalist, in the latter by talking rubbish about how our candidate is not local because he ran the New york Marathon.

More later, meanwhile the BBC has this.