Private Poll Puts Labour and Conservatives neck and neck!

There were reports that the Conservatives had private polling indicating they were doing much better than YouGov's latest poll suggested.

For example Ben Brogan had this, naming the pollster. As a result Anthony Wells asked Populus to release their report under the British Polling council rules which they have now done. Anthony carries this.

The headline figures are Labour 37% (-2), Conservatives 36% (+3) whilst the Liberal Democrats are on 16% (+1).

Interesting. We are due a Times commissioned Populus poll next week sometime.

Marriage, Telling it how it is

Yesterday on Newsnight there was an interview with David Cameron, my favourite economics correspondent and the daughter of one of my favourite musicians, Stephanie Flanders.

From my point of view it told me nothing new, but then as I am a Conservative, you would hope I had a clue about the thinking of the Conservative party.

Opinions have varied as to whether David Cameron came off well or not. Most say he did.

The one point in question is when Stephanie Flanders said that she had a child, and asked if David Cameron if he thought she should be married.

We do not know by whom she had this child, nor the relationship she has with the child's father.

David Cameron laid out in fluffy language what the Conservative party position is.

I would have been somewhat more direct.

My position would have been this:

The Conservative party believes that marriage is the best option.

If elected we will make it clear that marriage is the best option.

We will, if elected reduce the penalty of getting married.

What you, as an individual do with your own life, is your own choice.

End of discussion.

Newssnight's infuriatingly hard to link to what you want to web page is here. I would link direct to the show or any articles written about it there, but obviously the person who runs that website is a muppet.

GCSE Science to be dumbed down?

The Times yesterday carried this article on how GCSE science exams are being dumbed down.

I have read the example paper and some of the questions are good. Most are asinine whilst some are based on subjective criteria where the question setter does not understand the subject matter enough to be able to make a comment let alone set a question and some of the multiple choice question's have the potential for all answers to be correct.

Utter stupidity.

I will Fisk some of the government comments and the paper at a later date. It does however break my heart. It is clear that science in this country is not being dumbed down. Clearly it has been already.

A Clarification on the "Arms Dealer" Story

I Chris Paul has written up his comments on my story which cribbed from a report in the Sunday Times. I said that the times had reported that Imrand Khan had donated money to labour via a group called the "Muslim Friends of Labour" which is similar it seems to the Midland Industrial Council.

I note that, but frankly don't care, my gripe is that Labour really don't like the Midlands Industrial Council so should not be caught in similar circumstances.

I also note that said Imrand Khan has been linked in the report to an arms dealer/salesman. In these circumstances Labour folks seem to go off on one if it is a Conservative donor, but as yet appear not to have in this case. Again, I personally do not have a problem with this trade any more than I would have with a knife salesman. Guns and knives are tools that we make extensive use of, and it is only if someone is trading them irresponsibly that an issue arises and there is no such allegation here.

The point of my story is not that I find Imrand Khan has actually done anything wrong, because as far as I can see it, he hasn't. The point is that had he been a Conservative donor rather than a Labour one, then people like Chris Paul would have gone off the deep end.

Chris Paul hopes I have insurance. Presumably for libel. Well, in this case I would not need it, as even if my facts are wrong I am not accusing Mr Khan of doing anything that is either wrong*, or indeed should attract opprobrium from anyone, it certainly does not from me. In order for there to be an actionable libel you have to make an incorrect statement** about someone which would damage their reputation amongst right thinking people. I can't see that it would, and obviously I exclude Chris Paul from this, as he thinks many things that are legal are wrong.

So my story is not an attack on Mr Khan, but on Chris Paul who insists all sorts of things are bad, but when it is pointed out to him that his own side does it seems to be a tad silent.


* According to the Times report the Electoral Commission are investigating the Muslim Friends of Labour. That does not mean there is any wring doing there, though obviously they may find some.

**Technically you can say something about someone which is true, and still be found guilty of libel. For example you can bring up a criminal conviction which is spent under the provisions of the 1974 Rehabilitation of Offenders act. There is a defence that to raise such a conviction is in the public interest, and also if I remember correctly the claimant would have to show malice.

Gordon Brown to face massive rebellion over EU treaty

Apparently, according to today's Telegraph, which is not as yet available online, Gordon Brown may have up to 120 MP's rebelling against the EU constitution/treaty unless there is a referendum.

When the report comes online I will link to it.

Interesting. Gordon Brown has already had more rebellions in his first month as PM than all others put together since the war, and he has only had one month or parliament sitting.

Could make politics interesting, though I suspect that Gordon will twist the odd arm or two.

Labour's Lead cut in New ICM Poll

The latest ICM poll is out in today's Guardian. It shows Labour at 39% (+1) Conservatives at 34% (+2) and the Liberal Democrats at 18% (-2).

The Guardian chooses the the headline "Poll warning to Brown over October election gamble" and then goes on about regional variations and trends on particular issues.

The problem with the regional variations is that the sample sizes are just too small to make them worth looking at seriously though they do show Labour strong up north, down in Scotland and Wales, doing well in other regions but not in the south. Crucially however the Liberal Democrats are doing very badly in the South where their voters are going Conservative.

As I said though, the sample sizes on a region by region basis are too small and so too volatile to be taken seriously.

The interesting thing though is the Conservatives leading Labour on health, crime and the economy.

I stand my prediction that the first poll to show the Brown bounce to go will be the Communicate Research at the beginning of October.

Apart from that the poll is fairly dull really.

Labour getting money from arms dealers shocker!

Labour is potentially about to get involved in a new sleaze row involving money. The Sunday Times reports that Labour has its equivalent to the Midlands Industrial Council which Labour party supporters have complained about bitterly.

It gets worse, however, one of the key figures in their equivalent, the Muslim Friends of Labour, Imran Khand has set up businesses with a Pakistan based arms dealer.

What would Chris Paul say? Chris who? You know, the Labour blogger who thinks Michael Gove can't be our shadow Schools Minister because he happens to have spent some time in private education. Alas Chris "double standards" Paul has not as yet called for Ed Balls to be moved whose whole secondary education was private.

Well, Chris also wrote this article about someone who had donated money to the Conservative party, and has links to the arms trade. Obviously Chris Paul will be be getting on his high horse about Labour getting dirty money. Or perhaps not, as he does seem to have double standards.

Ministerial Cover up as gun crime quadruples under Labour

You often hear ministers trot out numbers that show that crime is failing. In fact according to the British Crime Survey it has been falling since 1994.

However that survey hides important factors such as crime against the under 16's, rapes and murders.

There is no doubt our streets are less safe than they used to be even 10 years ago.

The Sunday Times has this article, prompted by David Davis, the Conservative shadow Home Secretary highlighting a four fold increase in gun crime since 1998. In short 10 people a day are either killed of injured by guns. These guns are for the most part illegally held so all the gun control legislation in the world is not going to help. What is needed is some fresh thinking on the issue.

Labour clearly is not working.

A Standing Ovation for Rhys Jones

I must confess I get a bit depressed when I hear of a minutes silence for this or that. We have a silence for the millions who died in both world wars. That is appropriate. So much loss on such a massive scale.

I am impressed with the parents of Rhys Jones, Melanie and Steve, and indeed his primary school classmates. Rhys's parents asked not for a minutes silence for his death, but for applause for his for his life. Very moving and very right. Rhys's normal seat at Goodison park remained empty. (See the Sunday Times here)

Meanwhile his classmates have set up their own tribute site, here. It is also very moving.

It is good though to see a bit of British grit, the Dunkirk spirit showing through though.

This must be such a sad time for them all.

May Rhys Jones rest in peace whilst his killers are brought to justice.

Yet more youth crime

I was very saddened to hear that a 21 year old described as having learning difficulties, Brent Martin, was beaten so badly in Sunderland on Thursday that he died of his injuries today.

The police have arrested a number of people, a woman of 21 and three youths, two aged 17 and one 16.

There is no doubt that this is a horrible crime. Clearly for a small number of youths, something is going very very wrong.

As a society we need to do something, though passing more laws is probably not the answer.

The BBC has this on the attack and this on the death of Brent Martin.

Youth Crime, and the murder of Rhys Jones

You expect murders from time to time. You even expect children to be murdered (usually by family) from time to time. However we are going through the most awful spate of murders of children by children, with the 11 year old Rhys Jones being the latest victim. (See the BBC here)

It is truly sad to see so much young life thrown away, by children, who when (or perhaps if) caught will also spend years in prison.

As if to underline this shocking state of affairs, youths are also attacking and killing others too. Sophie Lancaster (21) and her boyfriend Robert Maltby were walking in a local park in Stubbylee park in Bacup, Rossendale when they were set on by a gang of youths between 15 and 17. Sophie died in hospital whilst Robert was seriously injured. (See BBC here).

Clearly something is going seriously wrong. Youth violence is on the rise, both on young people and on everyone else.

Foot and Mouth, Where is the updated HSE report?

Firstly I am pleased to see that the foot and mouth outbreak appears to be limited, I would not be surprised to hear of a few more scares, but would be shocked if there was another outbreak.

During the initial outbreak suspicion fell on the laboratories at Pirbright, there was a flurry of activity, an initial HSE report and spinning blaming it all on Merial.

Two things are relevant here. Firstly the HSE report clearly identified the strain as being from the Pirbright. The second is that the initial report promised further tests to say whether the sub strain was from the Animal Health Institute or Merial.

Where is it?

For more on foot and mouth, see here, and for the initial HSE report see here.

Are Gollywogs racist? or indeed racist?

There is a storm in Sussex about the sale of golliwogs, which some people complain are racist.

You can see the video report from South East today here.

You will note that one of the shopkeepers selling them is himself of Afro Caribbean origin.

Let us get this straight. A golly wog is a rag doll, that happens to be of Afro Caribbean appearance (well some parts of Africa any way as there are many racial groups there).

Is it wrong to sell a rag doll of Caucasian appearance? If not, what is wrong with one of Afro Caribbean appearance?

Offence is often in the eye of the beholder in much the same way as beauty is. I wonder who finds them offensive, and if you are going to give a view, could you please state your own ethnic origin?

Update 22:00

I should add that I can see how people may find the name offensive (golly wog as opposed to golly doll)

Longer trips to Accident and Emergency costs lives Shocker!

In a study reported on in Today's Grauniad, an unbelievable report says that longer trips to Accident and Emergency costs lives.

Government has denied this, and has also refuted claims that the Pope (Benedict XVI, a suspiciously Catholic name) is a Catholic as well as insisting that bears do not defecate in woodland.

What is bizarre is that this statement of the bl**ding obvious requires some sort of study. The study was in fact paid for by the Department of health and shows a direct correlation between distance to an A&E department and mortality rates, though to be fair I suspect the issue is more related to time to treatment.

The thing is that Labour are trying to convince everyone that centralising services is a good idea. Red Dawn Primarolo has been on the airwaves spewing propaganda that both the medical profession and patients want this. This is disingenuous in the extreme. It is true that some consultants favour it, and it is also true that there is a case for some types of treatments to be carried out at specialist centers such as cancer care, major heart surgery and so on, but crucially not emergency care in the case of either heart or stroke care (you need to stabilise a patient quickly). There is considerably less of a case for the centralisation of maternity units as it can be very hard to get maternity places in Sussex as it is. Clearly in this area there is a distinct lack of capacity and traveling long distance whilst in labour is problematic in any case.

In fact most GP's and patient groups are up in arms about service closures, with mass demonstrations for keeping services at many hospitals including the Princess Royal in Haywards Heath whilst of course Labour ministers have been out in protest as well.

The BBC has this.

Baby snatchers at work even where they believe there is no risk?

It appears that the baby snatchers are at work even where they do not believe there is an immediate risk.

A couple in Calderdale in Yorkshire taped a conversation with social services and published it on the internet (see below)



The thing is that they are talking about taking extreme action on nothing other than suspicion. No facts, just a suspicion. To take a new born baby away from its blood family at birth is wrong unless you are sure that the child will come to harm. In this case the council are certain there is no short term risk. So why do it?

However the reason the story came to light is that social services are in a bit of a tiz because they have been recorded and the recording has been made public.

Tough titty chaps, the data protection act does not cover you.

The Telegraph has this whilst Dizzy thinks has this and John Hemming has this and this.

Oil prices set to rise

It is with regret that I expect oil prices to rise, as hurricane Dean threatens oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rather oddly summer in the USA causes an increase in oil usage as Americans get in the cars with engines that are impracticably large and set off around the USA so pushing up prices anyway. However after hurricane Katrina disrupted oils supplies in 2005, expect worries about hurricane Dean to drive up oil prices as at this stage, Dean is stronger than Katrina was at a similar stage.

With a bit of luck it won't do too much damage, however as the sea in the gulf gets hotter year by year so the hurricanes get stronger.

NHS, Just where has all the money gone?

Today the Daily Mail carries a story of a woman, Catherine Brown who was advised to have a chemically induced abortion at 18 weeks, because otherwise she would have a severe risk of death. The procedure involves inducing labour early and results in a live, if short lived birth.

When she went in to labour in the brand spanking new Queen's Hospital Romford, opened at a cost of £238 million last December, there were no staff on hand to assist. Staff were found, who said they did not have the training to help and left here to it.

With her mothers help she gave birth to Edward in a toilet. No medical staff were in attendance. Edward died shortly afterwards. To make matters much worse the hospital almost disposed of Edward with medical waste.

The hospital has issued a statement expressing regret and saying they have now bolted that stable door. This is clearly not satisfactory.

There are many other instances of Labour cuts and overspend making a mess of the NHS.

In a hospital which has lost its Accident and Emergency department a patient fainted whilst having a blood sample taken. The member of staff carrying out the procedure called for help and was simply told to call an ambulance to taker the patient to an A and E elsewhere.

In central Sussex we have our local hospital, the Princess Royal is under threat. Both the maternity and accident and emergency (already downgraded) are facing closure. As it is women in labour sometimes have to travel many miles to other hospitals when there is no space at the Princess Royal also finding that there is no space at the Royal Sussex in Brighton either.

There is not the spare capacity in Sussex to cope with hospital services being cut, yet the local health trusts, having wasted pots of money wants to do it.

The NHS is breaking down in places, Labour having made a complete hash of running it. It would at least be understandable if vast sums of money were not being spent, but it is hard to fathom how this amount of money being spent could lead to these sorts of horror stories.

Normal Service to be resumed Saturday

Normal service will be resumed during Saturday evening.

Just thought I would let you know.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Financial Markets bounce back

Well at least there is some good news on the financial markets
tonight. Yesterday's losses have been wiped out.

It did take the US Federal Reserve to lower its inter bank interest
rates making it clear that it will not allow any good banks to go down
though.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Black Thursday! Exclusive to all papers!

There has been another day of losses on the stockmarket today, a bit
like last Friday which I called black Friday. The papers did not major
on it then, but they are now.

The markets are of course looking for any opportunity to over react.

There are issues in the markets which I will cover when I am back home
on Saturday, but nothing to panic about. However if the press sell the
bad news too hard they are in danger of causing a massive loss of
confidence, thereby causing a bigger problem.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White