Monday, June 30, 2008

Housing and oil gloom

Not only has oil reached yet another record high, at over $143 a barrel but the crisis in the housing market looks set to get deeper as mortgage lending sets a new record low.

So no more boom and bust then Gordon?

The BBC has this on the housing market and this on oil.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Whats up in Zimbabwe? Can't they rig a ballot properly?

Well, we are still waiting for the results of the presidential election run off in Zimbabwe, not that anyone thinks it is either free or fair.

The vote took place on Friday. Apparently they were counted yesterday.

So why the hold up? Given the amount of beatings, murders and intimidation is the result still embarrassing?

After the result, all eyes will be on Africa and we will see if they recognise the nasty evil Robert Mugabe as president.

The BBC has this
.

Is Sweden stark staring mad?

The Times carries this story today about a Swedish child's attempts to organise a birthday party in which not all his classmates were invited.

According to this article in the Times this has sparked a national debate. The child's invitations were even confiscated.

They must be mad.

Bonkers smoking ban in Holland!

I have to say that I am against the smoking ban in this country. If they want clean air then they can legislate for clean air and if someone can provide that without banning smoking that is a matter for them.

However in a surreal move Holland, famous for its "coffee houses" where people smoke marijuana legally there is to be a smoking ban also. The thing is that it only applies to tobacco and not to marijuana. So you can smoke a joint if it has no tobacco in it but not if it has.

Is this just mad or what?

The BBC has this.

The great gun control experiment!

The Supreme Court of the United States of America has ruled that a ban on hand guns in Washington DC is unconstitutional.

Washington DC has both the some of the highest gun crime rates in the USA as well as the strictest laws on gun control. You could argue therefore that gun control laws do not work. Those who favour gun control argue that is rubbish and that gun crime is so rampant because you can nip across to Virginia and buy what you want.

There is some merit in both arguments, though gun control laws here came in and then gun crime rocketed. That does not mean they are related of course.

However it occurs to me that whilst the USA is going down this route we may get an answer on how useful gun control laws really are.

The BBC has this
.

Are Labour just a bunch of muppets?

Well, the Crown blog thinks so here.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Wendy Alexander resignation

Firstly this obviously throws Labour in general and Labour in Scotland into some disarray.

Iain Dale apparently is not crowing about it here on the grounds that she only committed a technical breach of the rules whilst Guido points out that it goes much deeper than that in that she received two donations for £950 from a foreign source.

Well, Iain laments a system that is unclear in its rules that will catch out the honest but unwary. Well it does and that is wrong, though to be fair many who have been found guilty of "technical breaches" have been let off.

There is an air of mutual mud slinging going on where political enemies are getting at each other by leaking damning stories about sleaze. As the SNP note a lot of these enemies are in the same party as the accused.

This is all very damaging to politics and the only answer is a simple clean and transparent system of both making donations and declaring them.

The BBC has this.

Babies with MRSA Shocker!

Apparently 5 babies in a specialist unit in Glasgow have MRSA on their skin.

It would actually be shocking if 5 babies did not have MRSA somewhere as it is actually a remarkably common bug, and no the babies are not in any danger at all. They probably have it up their noses as well, as do the rest of us.

The trick is not to treat an open wound just after you have picked your nose, unless you have washed your hands first. Likewise there is no point in assuming that anyone else has washed their hands so if you have touched anyone else, wash your hands before you do anything important.

Or in short, don't deep clean hospitals, or get visitors to wash their hands, sack staff who do not wash their hands properly.

Meanwhile the BBC has this non story here.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Zimbabwe Elections: Will it backfire?

My understanding is that the presidential election run off is still going ahead despite the fact that Morgan Tsvangirai has stood down as a candidate to avoid further bloodshed.

However, Robert Mugabe is not only going ahead with the vote, but it seems that the voters have been told that if they do not vote they will be beaten.

I have to say that is a very dangerous tactic. I have to wonder if people will vote out of fear but vote for Morgan Tsvangirai.

Needless to say Mugabe is also saying that African leaders should mind their own business. So they should.. except that Zimbabwe is flooding the place with refugees. That causes them pain.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

The Law Lords and Anonymous witnesses

The Law Lords have, in a well argued judgement ruled that Ian Davis had not received a fair trial because there was too much anonymous witness evidence. (See the BBC here)

The Police have expressed great concern about the ruling because they have many cases which rely on anonymous witness evidence.

So why the problem?

Obviously criminals, particularly those who have committed serious crimes such as murder have no respect for other peoples lives, and will not think twice about intimidating witnesses. There friends, family or gang members may do the actual intimidation so the fact that the accused is locked up is not enough.

However the right to a fair trial is a common law right, now in the Human Rights act as is the right to see and confront your accuser. This is vital to a fair trial.

Imagine the situation where you (and yes, I do mean YOU) are accused of a crime, say murder, and the only evidence against you is that of 2 anonymous witnesses. Neither you nor your defence team know who they are. You do not know what if any axes they have to grind against you.

Is there a precedent for anonymous witnesses? Yes, though not a happy one, the Spanish inquisition used them were on the list of , though I have heard that you had to have 3 accusers and got to write down a list of enemies. If your enemiesaccusers they were struck off.

If you think about it having anonymous witnesses is a very bad thing. Someone who feels you have done them down, or who has some axe to grind could be a witness against you, and you would never know.

So what is the real problem here? What is the ill we seek to cure?

It is fear. Remove the fear and then there is no need to have anonymous witnesses.

To remove the fear of witnesses we need to do two things. Firstly there needs to be a fully funded witness protection program, secondly there needs to be a specialist unit to investigate witness intimidation of any sort. We need to make sure that anyone who intimidates a witness serves a long prison sentence, say 10 years as a minimum, or longer if the crime that the intimidation is over has a longer sentence.

If people can't get away with witness intimidation they will stop doing it.

The BBC also has this article by Professor Jon Silverman, of the University of Bedfordshire.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

New house Building hits 70 year low!

According to this article in the Evening Standard new house building in London is at its lowest level since the great depression 70 years ago.

New building targets are flying out of the window, redundancies in house building are on the way.

Grim news indeed.

Zimbabwe: Is it time for the Colonels to seek promotion?

Much spleen has been vented by Zimbabwe's generals about how they will never accept an MDC government, they say on the basis that it would be selling out to the former colonial power.

It is clear that Zimbabwe is going a bit pear shaped and has been for a while. The ultimate loyalty of the lower ranks of both the army and police has been drawn into question.

We know hear that the UN Security Council has condemned the violence and said there can not be a free and fair election. Bear in mind that this includes Russia, China and South Africa. Robert Mugabe and the Generals must feel very lonely.

This is the time when ambitious colonels can snatch a promotion and rid Zimbabwe of Mugabe and his clique. Go on, you know it makes sense!

The BBC has this.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Boris Johnson, James McGrath and The Shrill Cry of Racist!

And so we have our first casualty of the Boris Johnson mayoralty.

James McGrath was a senior aide to Boris Johnson who gave an interview to Marc Wadsworth, who is a member of the Labour party, alleged journalist and race campaigner.

Alas before doing so he appears (according to Marc Wadsworths article here) not to have bothered looking the man up. As refreshing as this is, after all it is good to know that those in government don't spin, it was also a mistake, because those in "journalism" certainly do.

James McGrath has stood down, over this exchange:
McGrath was far from politically correct, David-Cameron-new- cuddly-Conservative Party, when I pointed out to him a critical comment of Voice columnist Darcus Howe that the election of "Boris Johnson, a right-wing Conservative, might just trigger off a mass exodus of older Caribbean migrants back to our homelands".

He retorted: "Well, let them go if they don’t like it here." McGrath dismissed influential race commentator Howe as ‘shrill’.
Now it is clear to me who is saying "blacks go home", it is Darcus Howe, though why is unclear as I can't find the article in the Voice online.

The problem we have is that whilst someone like Ken Livingstone can tell Jews to "go back to Iran" and get away with all sorts of other comments some might view as racist, (as indeed can Labour with their "British Jobs for British Workers" slogan) we can't. That sort of mud sticks to us far more than it does to Labour. We can't change that perception over night.

So was Boris right to ask for his resignation? I fear he was. I have not met James McGrath, but hear he is a decent, kind and honourable man.

The problem is that our opponents aren't.

They will use any means to smear our party.

We need to be much more careful about playing the game.

People like Marc Wadsworth and Darcus Howe will use what ever means they can to both get at the Conservative party and to divide the Afro Caribbean community from the rest of society. After all, how else could Darcus claim to speak for older Caribbean migrants?

Iain Dale has this, Conservative home has this and the BBC has this.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Morgan Tsvangirai quits race to avoid resounding beating

Morgan Tsvangirai quits race to avoid resounding beating according to sources close to Zanu PF.

This is of course entirely accurate, though would have been more so if they had also used adjectives such as brutal, murderous and possibly fatal.

There is no doubt that Robert Mugabe and his regieme are doing anything to hang on to power whilst South Africa's Thabo Mbeki bestrides the stage like a paralised streak of piss.

At least some of the SADC nations are beginning to speak out, like Zambia's president Levy Mwanawasa. The BBC has this on what he has said:

But Levy Mwanawasa, president of neighbouring Zambia, said the run-off should be postponed "to avert a catastrophe in the region".
He said Zimbabwe's economic collapse was affecting the whole region, and he called on SADC to take a similar stance.

"It's scandalous for SADC to remain silent on Zimbabwe," he said.

"What is happening in Zimbabwe is embarrassing to all of us."
The BBC has this.

Is this the NHS we are paying double for?

We are now paying roughly twice what we were paying for the NHS than we were 11 years ago, yet according to this article in the Mail on Sunday a pregnant woman had to give birth in a hospital corridor after being turned away from two closer hospitals.

Emma Johnson of Brighton went into Labour, so called her local hospital the Royal Sussex county, who said they did not have enough beds. She called the next nearest at Worthing and got the same story. Then she called my local hospital in Haywards Heath, the Princess Royal. After a 40 minute car journey she ended up giving birth in the corridor. It is unclear why it was in a corridor, though presumably it was because the baby had to be delivered before she could be got into a birthing suite rather than a lack of one.

A spokesman for Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals trust said:
We do everything we can to ensure women are able to give birth in a hospital of their choice.

We are sorry that this was clearly not Miss Johnson's experience.

Occasionally if a site is very busy we have to ask mums to travel but we do this as infrequently as possible because we know it is not what mums want.
Well, the cutbacks in maternity services are due to the PCT structure more than the hospital trust so maybe they can be let off that one. That it is not what mums want is bizarre statement. I can't see anyone queuing up to be sent from pillar to post for an urgent visit to a hospital.

The sad thing about all this is that the maternity unit at the Princess Royal is still under threat with its services due to be downgraded to a maternity led unit. Had that been the case then what would have happened to Emma Johnson and her baby had she had complications? Just how far would she have had to have traveled? Could she have been half way through birth at the Princess Royal and then need an urgent surgical procedure like a cesarean?

All this of course despite the amount of money being spent on the NHS whilst there are over 10,000 less beds than 1997. Where has all the money gone.

You can support the Save the Princess Royal Hospital campaign here.

The Mail on Sunday has this.

Health and Safety madness!

Firstly when I first heard this story the other day I did not believe it.

Secondly it is not the Health and Safety executive who are behind the latest piece of lunacy but the private, and hopefully soon to be bankrupt, shutdown or laughed at so loudly that they disappear in shame, The British Standards Institute.

They are working on a new standard of tree inspection. That ought to raise some suspicion for a start. 6 people a year die due to falling trees or bits falling off them. I don't want to belittle those who have died but that is not a lot in the scale of things, 30 people die in a bath each year.

It seems that trees should be inspected once every 3 years.

Why? Which tress?

Do they include Bonsai trees, ones in parks or do they include ones on private land over which people have the right to roam.

At £70 per tree per inspection this is of course a good way for tree surgeons to make a killing but I can't see it saving lives. The number of trees that will be cut down will cause massive loss of carbon absorption, causing deaths and also there are the deaths caused in the process of cutting down a lot of trees.

The chilling quote I read was this one here in the Daily Mail:
'We are not suggesting that everyone goes out and buys the standard," he said. "But people who have a tree in their garden and want to understand what their duty of care is can at least get an idea of what the standard is.'
Just so that we understand what this means, they are trying to tie a standard that we as a country do not need to solve a problem we do not have to the term "duty of care".

The issue here is that if you owe someone a duty of care and your breach of that causes the death or injury of someone then you are liable under the laws of negligence.

In other words, if you have a tree, buy are standards to avoid being sued.

This is wrong, very wrong.

Catastrophic Slump for Gordon Brown in latest poll!

There is a poll in today's Mail on Sunday that carries some very bad news for Labour and Gordon Brown. It was carried out by BPIX.

Gordon Brown's personal ratings are so low that there seems to be no way back for him. On almost any measure David Cameron is held in much higher regard.

The main polling numbers are devastating as well. The Conservatives are on 49%, Labour on 26% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%.


The would give the Conservatives 455 seats to Labour's 150 seats and 17 for the Liberal Democrats according to Anthony Wells election calculator here.

BPIX are not currently a member of the British Polling Council so do not publish their data. This may change. Whilst that is the case though, polls like this need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

In reply to David Davis Critics

Much waffle has issued forth on this issue, so I will cut to the chase. A conversation on PoliticalBetting.com.

To this comment from Sea Shanty Irish here, I replied thus:

I could not agree less.

David Davis is so certain to retain his seat that the only question on the betting odds is whether you can beat the bank interest rates.

The real issue is how he changes the political weather on the issue.

Viscount Stansgate (My Lord Tony Benn for those not in the know) says there are two types of politician, the weathercock and the signpost.

What David Davis is trying to do is to change the weather so that he brings the weathercocks with him.

I think that is all that need be said on the matter.

Or at least I would, if Labour, led by Gordon "bottler" Brown could put up some kind of argument.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Cure for Cancer?

Some good news on a black day.

There is news of a new treatment for cancer. It seems that the body always has had a cure for cancer in its immune system but the problem is that the immune system does not see cancer as quite the threat that it is.

The treatment revolves around the idea of taking a blood sample, isolating the immune cells that attack the cancer that someone has then picking the most aggressive and cloning them until you have something like 5 billion of them. Then you inject them.

This therapy has been used on advanced skin cancer but there is no reason why it could not work on all cancers.

At the moment it looks expensive because of the large amount of work and expertise involved in each case but then things that needed that combination 20 years ago are so cheap now it is ridiculous.

There is hope!

The Telegraph has this
.

Energy bills set to rise another 40% as economy is in the Brown stuff

Insiders in the energy business report that they expect to see 40% price rises before the winter.

That is going to hurt.

Meanwhile the economic outlook is very bad. Inflation is apparently 3.1%! That's a laugh. RPI is well over 4% and has been for ages. Peoples disposable income has been either static or going down for the past two years.

Its grim.

Quite a lot of this is not of the governments making, however the charge that they should have fixed the roof whilst the sun shone stands. The government built a healthy surplus in the years that it followed Conservative spending plans so that when the dot com bubble burst followed by September the 11th they had the cash to prevent a problem.

The problems were two fold. Firstly they over spent to prevent that crash, secondly they continued to spend to the point where they now have no room for maneuver at all.

It is too early to say how bad things will get, but it is clear that this government has squandered an opportunity to build in stability.

The BBC has this and the Telegraph has this.