Gordon Brown proposes electoral reform!

To be fair it was in Labour's manifesto in 1997 (because Labour thought they could only just squeak in, and may even need the Liberal Democrats) and their 2001 manifesto (Well there was foot and mouth, the fuel protests and maybe they had forgotten to take it out).

But now we here that Gordon Brown, who could have forced it a long time ago is all in favour! And no, he has not looked at the polls!

Well it is such a transparent effort to rig the voting system it will never fly in the court of public opinion. Even Labour supporting unions are scratching their heads.

There is not enough time to get something through in this parliament. If there is a referendum on it (or even the possibility), then up will pop the Lisbon treaty referendum question.

This will achieve nothing for Brown other than make it look like he is trying to fix an election. That will drive Labour even lower in the polls.

The BBC has this.

Gordon Brown to survive until June 3rd 2010

Well, actually, given that the general election count may be the following day Gordon Brown may still be PM on June the 4th 2010.

That is when he will call an election, waiting for something like the Falklands war to turn up.

There are still some who laughably think Labour will topple Gordon Brown. They won't.

Firstly if they want to mount an official challenge then they have to get 72 MP's to agree on one candidate who also agrees to be nominated. That will be like herding cats, no matter how much damaging infighting goes on.

Secondly there is no way any number of resignations will get the message through. It just will not happen. He can appoint as many Lords and Ladies as he likes to fill in for the fact that there are few with talent on the Labour commons benches prepared to serve.

The only possible way that they may get a big enough hint across is to vote against Labour in the no confidence vote the SNP and Plaid Cymru have tabled, with the caveat that if they actually win Labour losses the general election a month or two later, so they need to vote against but make it close, and in doing so sacrifice their chances of staying on as MP's. No that is not going to happen either.

In short, Labour are headed for a meltdown, and no one or two quarters of growth before a general election even if that does happen will not save them because unemployment will still be growing.

All good stuff.

Caroline Flint and Tony McNulty resign!

And Caroline Flint criticised Gordon Brown for treating her like female window dressing!

Ouch.

Labour are clearly melting down here.

The BBC has this.

Hazel Blears resigns from cabinet!

Hazel Blears resigned from the cabinet today, a couple of hours before Gordon Brown faces the House of Commons at Prime ministers questions.

After yesterday's resignations which led to headlines like this, things seem to have got worse for Labour. This looks like a co-ordinated attack on Brown.

The BBC has this, and politicalbetting has this.

Jacqui Smith to stand down as Home Secretary!

Apparently there are strong rumours that Jacqui Smith is to stand down as Home Secretary!

This is amazing news, if not that surprising. Downing Street dismissed the rumours as speculation, whilst not denying it.

Also Whitehall sources are confirming this.

Apparently she is standing down to spend more time in her constituency of Redditch as it is a bit of a marginal. I think she is nuts if that is the case as she has lost her seat anyway.

Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson and Gordon Brown's leadership

I have to say it is fascinating watching the machinations of a party on self destruct, with a leader as Stalinesque as Gordon Brown.

On Sunday the Sunday Telegraph published a story claiming Harriet Harman would contest the Labour leadership, if it became available, as it were. The theme being a stop Alan Johnson candidate, but without suggesting that Alan Johnson wanted to be a candidate.

This led to a fairly unequivocal like ruling out of leadership ambitions by Harriet Harman on Monday morning.

This is followed in today's Telegraph that the way is now clear for Alan Johnson, whose leadership ambitions appear to be not unequivocal enough.

Bearing in mind Guido's suspicions that the Telegraph is morphing into the Labourgraph, taking copy from Number 10's spin machine, you do have to wonder who is feeding the Telegraph the briefings, and why.

Are they Brown insiders looking to get a clearly unequivocal ruling out by Alan Johnson so that he could not stand for the leadership? Or is it Ed Balls using the same machine to clear his way.

The only thing you can be certain of is that nothing is what it seems.

Labour just don´t get the banking crisis

It is fascinating to note how Labour just do not get the banking crisis.

This is all exemplified by an interview with John Redwood and Derek Draper, on the Nolan show. You can download the MP3 here, or read a partial transcript here, thanks to the University of Manchester Conservative Future, via Iain Dale´s Daily Dozen.

You see, in Draper world, and from having talked to real world New Labour supporters, New Labour world, this is a combination of American bankers, and greedy bankers here, and if there was any fault here, it was not enough regulation but Labour would have regulated more than any one else as everyone else wanted more regulation.

Well I have news for people who live in Draper world or indeed New Labour world, and it is this.

It does not matter how much regulation you have, if you are regulating the wrong things, with the wrong people who don´t know what they are looking at.

There is no sensible way that a regulator could decide what sort of mortgages a bank should offer to an individual. There is every way that a regulator could supervise a banks balance sheet and its spread of risk verses it capital and cash.

It is true that the Conservative party does want less regulation, in the sense of less looking at each individual deal. What we do want is to get a tighter control of the bigger picture. That is the way it used to be done, before Gordon Brown, and it is the way it will be done after him.

Labour meltdown continues, latest poll is dire!

The latest Ipsos Mori poll in today's Telegraph is dire news for Labour.

It reports the shares as follows; Conservatives 52% (+4), Labour 24% (NC) and the Liberal Democrats on 12% (-5).

On this basis the Conservatives would win 481 seats, and give them an overall majority of 312. This would be a landslide of staggering proportions.

Ouch.

Political betting also has this.

Labour meltdown

It is at times like this you do have to wonder, as a spectator, if it can get any worse.

We have ever increasing calls for a Labour leadership contest, and much gnashing of teeth. Curiously this has bumped the Liberal Democrat conference of the news agenda a bit which is bad manners, bu then they don't have much to say of significance anyway.

The big question has to be; Will there be a Labour party in 2015?

The answer is of course yes, as the Liberals suffered a massive prolonged wipe out and have to some extent made a bit of a comeback. The lesson here is not that Labour will be here for ever, just that it takes a long time to wipe out a party, for the Labour party has never delivered its promises to its base and now has alienated its base with its current message and awful leadership.

Labour Ministers plot to oust Brown as polls show dire news!

And all I have to say is:

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

The latest polls indicate a remarkable defeat for Labour at the next general election, for example the Sunday Telegraph has this poll of key marginals which shows Labour behind the Liberal democrats whilst Comres for Saturday's Independent shows Labour 22% behind nationally. (As I write this their website is down so you can read about the poll on politicalbetting.com)

The Sunday Telegraph also carries this news on the plots to oust Gordon Brown in September!

The problem with all the plotting stories is this:

It can't happen.

The rules of the Labour party say that they can only actually get rid of a sitting leader if 70 MP's decide they want to, and place a motion for conference sometime in April.

They haven't so they need to get Gordon to resign and that isn't going to happen because no one has got the Balls.

In short, Labour are going to be fighting like rats in a sack for a while to come, egged on by the media, with no real result.

What is more laughable is that some Labour insiders (Not all I hasten to add) seriously think that Gordon Brown is the problem. Well he is, but not as Prime minister, but more so as chancellor for the first 10 years.

The fact is that people have been sold a lie by Labour, and now they have found them out.

Labour are in for a drubbing no matter who they have as PM going into the next election.

Glasgow East: Will Labour lose?

It has to be said that Glasgow East is Labour's 3rd safest seat in Scotland. Some polls have placed Labour 17% ahead of the SNP.

So what happens if Labour lose?

Well the by election has been carefully timed so that MP's are away on holiday until September so we will not know for a while.

Labour hit new low in poll Shocker!

The latest poll for the Sunday Telegraph conducted by ICM, puts Labour at their lowest share of the vote since the polster started and also gives the Conservatives their largest lead since 1987.

The Conservatives are on 42 %, Labour are on 26% and the Liberal Democrats are on 21%. That is enough to give us Conservatives a 100 seat majority.

The article points out that the 42 day detention policy is popular with the public but the Conservatives are still considered tougher on terrorism.

In short, what ever Gordon Brown does, he loses. Cool!

Labour losing out amongst all voters!

There is a poll in today's Independent. It is by ComRes, and shows the Conservatives on its highest share of the vote for ComRes at 44% (+4) with Labour on 30% (+4) and the Liberal Democrats on 16 (-4).

However the devil is in the detail. If you read the article, us Conservatives lead in all social groups, all ages and all areas except Scotland.

Impressive.

Much done, much still to do.

Labour hits historic low in new poll!

A YouGov poll in today's Telegraph shows Labour have hit their lowest poll percentage since polling began in 1943, worse even than Michael Foot's worst showing.

The poll has the Conservatives on 47% (+3), Labour on 23% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1).

Anthony Wells election calculator gives:
Conservatives 450 (+252)
Labour 144 (-212)
Liberal Democrats 27 (-35)
Others 11 (-1)
Northern Ireland 18 (NC)

This of course would be devastating for Labour if these numbers were repeated at a general election. I don't think it would be quite that bad for Labour, but then I did not think we would be quite this far ahead in the polls either.

I must admit I may have to rethink my position on this. I had worked on the basis that Gordon Brown was safe as PM for a number of reasons: Labour MP's could not get rid of a second leader in one parliament and look credible (they would also face pressure to hold a general election) and that there are enough Brown acolytes around to hold the party together by fear. Accordingly I had been working on the basis of Gordon Brown being PM as we go into an election in 2010.

I may be changing my mind. Guido points out did say how much of a disaster Gordon Brown would be as PM. I think he is being that us right leaning bloggersdisingenuous. No one could have thought he would be quite this bad. Also I suspect that Gordon's band of trusted acolytes is actually dwindling fast. I also doubt they can cast as much fear in Labour MP's as the polls do. The net result is that Gordon Brown is now far from safe as PM.

Politicalbetting also has this and this.

Could Labour debt bankrupt Gordon Brown?

The Guardian has an interesting article today on the continuing financial woes of the Labour party and how it may well go bust next month. (Also see this discussion on Politicalbetting)

It goes on to point out that if it does so then members of the NEC would be liable for the debts, including the following MP's.

* Janet Anderson MP (Div. V - PLP/ELP)
* Gordon Brown MP (Leader)
* Angela Eagle MP (Government)
* Harriet Harman MP (Deputy Leader)
* Pat McFadden MP (Government)
* Dawn Primarolo MP (Government)
* Dennis Skinner MP (Div. V - PLP/EPLP)
* Keith Vaz MP (Black Socialist Society)

(Hat tip to Timothy's helpful post here on PoliticalBetting)

My understanding is that if you are an undischarged bankrupt you can't be an MP. So there could be some interesting by elections.

The other interesting point is that the GMB have indemnified their two members on the NEC. Depending on how they have done this, it could leave the GMB liable for all Labour's debt, if the indemnity is to cover all loses. If however the indemnity allows for its members to go bankrupt but then the GMB will, as their "friend" buy out their interest in their assets (such as houses and pensions) then obviously that will not be a problem.

The big question is, however, will Labour go bust?

No. I can't see it happening. No matter how much noise the creditors make something will turn up or some deal will be negotiated. What is clear though is that Labour is in no shape to fight any elections.

Another week, another rebellion?

This weeks rebellion on the Labour benches is over car tax, specifically the way in which tax increases for higher emitting vehicles will now be backdated to 2001.

According to this article in the Telegraph the change affects 18 million drivers, whilst the Daily Mail has this.

This seems to be causing some angst on the Labour benches, and not because a green tax is being raised, but because it is being done retrospectively.

There are a number of issues with the tax as proposed of course, like how it seems to hit quite a lot of what people think of as "family cars" and also the fact that it is more likely that a 7 year old family car is likely to be owned by someone on lower income than a new one.

I would pose the question "what will next weeks revolt be about?" but we still have the 42 days thing coming up.

Has a Prime minister ever looked so weak and inept?

Crewe and Nantwich: Labour's dire predictions!

I have heard from a Labour MP that he thinks the Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be grim.

Ben Brogan has heard similar with some Labour people telling him that they expect the Conservatives to get over 50%.

This is of course slightly nuts as there are 10 candidates and that makes it almost impossible to get over 50%.

The other thing people are watching for is if the swing is higher than Eastbourne in 1990 (20%), because not only did the Conservatives win the seat back at the next general election but also won a majority in the House of Commons. The thinking seems to be that they would win the seat back at the next general election. That analysis misses the way that we got rid of Mrs Thatcher and a few hated policies.

Is Alan Milburn about to mount a leadership challenge?

Rumours reached me last night that Alan Milburn, the former health Secretary and strategist of Labour's 2005 general election campaign is to challenge Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership this weekend, presumably on the basis that Labour will get absolutely smashed in the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

My source for the rumour is a reliable Labour insider, who has dual sourced it himself. Furthermore this thread on Politicalbetting shows that other Labour insiders are talking about it as well.

I do not know how successful such a bid will be, but it really does look like ferrets will be fighting in a sack.

Draft Queens Speech, my reaction:

Well, Gordon Brown's draft Queens speech was of course a rehash of broken promises and policies lifted from Conservative manifestos and policy documents.

The big question is however, what will be in next weeks relaunch?

The answer is of course, that there will not be one next week, because that will be when Labour lose the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The re-launch will be the following week.

So what will be in that relaunch?

I have no idea, but then, neither has Gordon Brown, he has enough trouble dealing with the panics of today.

The Sun says this whilst the BBC has this.

Tamsin Dunwoody denies Gordon Brown is an asset!

Tansin Dunwoody, Labour's PPC in the Crewe and Nantwich by election has been caught on film refusing to say whether Gordon Brown is an asset to the Labour party or not!



Hat tip to the Crown Blogspot here.

If Gordon is being deserted by candidates before they become MP's what hope has he got?