Crewe and Nantwich: Labour's dire predictions!

I have heard from a Labour MP that he thinks the Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be grim.

Ben Brogan has heard similar with some Labour people telling him that they expect the Conservatives to get over 50%.

This is of course slightly nuts as there are 10 candidates and that makes it almost impossible to get over 50%.

The other thing people are watching for is if the swing is higher than Eastbourne in 1990 (20%), because not only did the Conservatives win the seat back at the next general election but also won a majority in the House of Commons. The thinking seems to be that they would win the seat back at the next general election. That analysis misses the way that we got rid of Mrs Thatcher and a few hated policies.