The short answer is I suspect not Labour.
The Conservatives clearly won the local elections there on the 1st of May pushing Labour into 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats. That in my view puts us as clear favourites though the Liberal Democrat by election machine is good.
However both Labour and The Liberal Democrats seem to have irritated their base. The former by undue haste in moving the writ for the by election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral then parachuting her daughter, a Brown loyalist, in the latter by talking rubbish about how our candidate is not local because he ran the New york Marathon.
More later, meanwhile the BBC has this.
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My name is Paul Thorogood and I'm the candidate for the Cut Tax On Petrol And Diesel Party...
To the voters of Crewe and Nantwich: You are about to make history. Thursday's by-election is effectively the first referendum in the UK on whether the Government should Cut Tax On Petrol And Diesel.
1. Like me you are probably sick and tired of paying so much for petrol. The Government blames the high prices on the state of the world oil markets but the fact is that for every £1 spent at the fuel pump about 70p is tax. We pay the highest taxes on fuel in Europe. If the Government had the political will they could reduce the terrible burden now faced by low income families, OAPs, the disabled, anyone who needs their car to get to work and the British haulage industry.
2. Every time the voters of Crewe and Nantwich go to a petrol station to fill up their cars between now and the election they’ll be reminded about why I’m standing as a candidate.
3. A vote for me is a chance to bloody the nose of the Labour Party over the terrible way they are handling the economy – especially taxation and spending. The 10p tax band debacle just being another example.
4. I want VAT abolished on fuel as it is effectively a tax on a tax and I want the current tax on diesel (57p per litre) and petrol (about 50p per litre) halved so it is in line with the average fuel duty in Europe.
5. I often get asked how can the Government afford it? But you are asking the wrong question. What you should be asking is how can low-income families, OAPs and hauliers afford the prices being demanded at the pumps?
6. Another argument I often hear is if the Government doesn’t take revenue from fuel, they’ll need to take it from somewhere else. WRONG! This Government has wasted billions over the last ten years including £12.4billion on the infamous NHS computers that never worked , £2.35billion on tarting up the MoD's London HQ, £2.3billion on consultants to tell civil servants how to do their jobs and the £3.3billion the military presence in Iraq costs every year.
7. They’re about to waste £10billion on the identity card scheme and £30billion on the replacement of the Trident missile system. Also much has been swallowed up in bureaucracy, with costly and often pointless managers, boards and quangos creating and chasing artificial targets.
8. Blockades don't work. The ballot box does. Vote for PAUL THOROGOOD. The UK is counting on you - don't waste this chance. It's over to you...
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