Thursday, May 01, 2008

Boris to win London Mayoral Election!

Well, that is my prediction. Boris Johnson MP will beat Ken Livingston in the race to be the next mayor of London.

That said the question will be by how much. According to this thread on politicalbetting.com the last YouGov poll is much tighter than before.

To be honest I don't know what the margin will be but what I do know is that there seems to be a mood for a change. Labour voters are demotivated and we have the wind in our sails.

On the wider picture I suspect we will pick up over 100 seats in the council elections which will be a real bonus because 2004 when these seats were last contested was already a very low water mark for Labour. To give you some idea of how bad that was, if these elections were held with the same positive sentiment that existed for Gordon Brown between June and September last year then Labour would have gained at least 100 seats. No one thinks they will have any net gains now.

4 comments:

Wolfie said...

I really hope your instincts are accurate.

Adam Green said...

The problem for Boris is the second preferences. No doubt that most of the Lib Dem second preferences and almost all of the Green second preferences will go to Ken. Boris can win and I hope you are right and he does, but he needs to secure the UKIP second preferences and a significant percentage of the Lib Dem preferences to win.

On the whole I believe the Conservatives will do well today and win around 40% of the vote nationally. Although in my city of Lincoln I am not so hopeful that the Conservatives will do well.

Benedict White said...

Wolfie, so do I :)

Adam green, i suspect you are wrong about Liberal Democrat second preferences. I suspect them to split for Boris.

Baht At said...

It beats me why anyone attaches any credibility to yougov polls. They only poll the sort of losers who respond to what is essential junk mail about nothing very important.

At least the other polling organisations actively approach people (although personally I always tell them to eff orf)