Frank Field gave an interview to the BBC's World Service last night, which was repeated on the Today program this morning.
Alan Johnson, Minister for Health was interviewed on it before they went on to discuss social care.
You can listen to it here.
I have to say Alan Johnson's reply sounds so plaintive. Please please stop attacking Gordon Brown!
Is this Gordon Brown's worst week since the last one?
Monday, May 12, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Has Nasrallah played his last card?
Hezbollah are on the streets of Beirut, taking control of the whole of the western half, including Sunni areas.
Hezbollah's guns have been turned on Lebanese of all varieties who do not agree with them.
This is crucial because all militias were disarmed after the Taif accords of 1989 except Hezbollah who kept theirs as they were a resistance movement to Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon which only finished in 2000. The basis on which they kept their guns was that they were for resistance against Israel and would not be used against Lebanese. Even then of course the fact that they had the guns even if they were not to be used against Lebanese does not mean they are not able to intimidate.
Prior to the 2006 Israeli Hezbollah summer war pressure was growing
on Sheik Nasrallah to disarm, and the cynics* amongst you may wonder if that war was not engineered to maintain an excuse for keeping the guns.
After the war Hezbollah could sell themselves as being victorious and so ensure that they kept their guns. It worked. Ehud Olmert fell straight into Nasrallah's trap.
The thing is that Nasrallah has done what he said he would not do which is to use those guns which were held solely for resistance against his own people. (By that I mean Shia, Sunni Druse and Christian who are not on his side). he has broken his agreement and now the political pressure will grow to disarm Hezbollah. It will take a lot of time, but it will happen. Legitimate resistance is no longer an excuse as those guns have now been misused.
*Well, to be fair you don't need to be much of a cynic to think that.
The BBC has this.
Hezbollah's guns have been turned on Lebanese of all varieties who do not agree with them.
This is crucial because all militias were disarmed after the Taif accords of 1989 except Hezbollah who kept theirs as they were a resistance movement to Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon which only finished in 2000. The basis on which they kept their guns was that they were for resistance against Israel and would not be used against Lebanese. Even then of course the fact that they had the guns even if they were not to be used against Lebanese does not mean they are not able to intimidate.
Prior to the 2006 Israeli Hezbollah summer war pressure was growing
on Sheik Nasrallah to disarm, and the cynics* amongst you may wonder if that war was not engineered to maintain an excuse for keeping the guns.
After the war Hezbollah could sell themselves as being victorious and so ensure that they kept their guns. It worked. Ehud Olmert fell straight into Nasrallah's trap.
The thing is that Nasrallah has done what he said he would not do which is to use those guns which were held solely for resistance against his own people. (By that I mean Shia, Sunni Druse and Christian who are not on his side). he has broken his agreement and now the political pressure will grow to disarm Hezbollah. It will take a lot of time, but it will happen. Legitimate resistance is no longer an excuse as those guns have now been misused.
*Well, to be fair you don't need to be much of a cynic to think that.
The BBC has this.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Conservatives in 26% poll lead shocker!
According to PoliticalBetting Yougov have just released a poll showing the Conservatives having a poll lead of 26%.
Yougov is described as a controversial Internet pollster despite getting closer to actual results time and time again.
Any way, this article on PoliticalBetting has the following numbers:
Conservatives 49% or 462 seats
Labour 23% or 137 seats
Liberal Democrats 17% or 23 seats
Leading to a Conservative majority of 274, according to Anthony Wells swing calculator.
I have to say these are outstanding figures, and make Michael Foot's 1983 election defeat look like a stunning victory.
Yougov is described as a controversial Internet pollster despite getting closer to actual results time and time again.
Any way, this article on PoliticalBetting has the following numbers:
Conservatives 49% or 462 seats
Labour 23% or 137 seats
Liberal Democrats 17% or 23 seats
Leading to a Conservative majority of 274, according to Anthony Wells swing calculator.
I have to say these are outstanding figures, and make Michael Foot's 1983 election defeat look like a stunning victory.
Police should harass young thugs says Home Secretary
I have to say I despair when I read of things like this in the Guardian and this on the BBC.
Jacqui Smith, the alleged Home Secretary has made a speech to an audience who work in the field of anti social behaviour.
It seems she wants the police to harass young thugs. This seems reminiscent of David Blunkett's threat to turn up outside a fireman's house who had been accused of football hooliganism in Portugal.
Harassment is a crime, made so by the Protection from Harassment act 1997. Presumably therefore this is not quite what she means though according to the BBC article persistent offenders will be targeted. Fair enough, if you think that person A keeps on breaking the law, watch him till he does and then arrest him. Keep doing so till learns.
The plan however seems to include for all sorts of other things as well. If there is someone in a household who is "persistently anti social" then they will check to see if you have paid your council tax, road tax have a car insured and even check if you have a TV licence. I do not which to defend people who break the law, but at least now we know what all those databases are for.
If you do not cooperate with the state, then they will dig and keep digging until they have something. Scary stuff. However you may feel that is fair enough as we are not talking about Mother Teresa here. It is not fair enough. If you happen to be the brother of a criminal it is not right that the police should single you out for special treatment. You have a right to be treated equally before the law.
Of course all this rampant populism fails to deal with the key issues which are that the police have far too much paperwork to do, even more if they arrest a youth and therefore not enough time to put feet on the ground to persistently arrest persistent offenders. Instead we now see the scary side of the database state, where if the state does not like you for one reason it will find many other ways of picking on you.
Jacqui Smith, the alleged Home Secretary has made a speech to an audience who work in the field of anti social behaviour.
It seems she wants the police to harass young thugs. This seems reminiscent of David Blunkett's threat to turn up outside a fireman's house who had been accused of football hooliganism in Portugal.
Harassment is a crime, made so by the Protection from Harassment act 1997. Presumably therefore this is not quite what she means though according to the BBC article persistent offenders will be targeted. Fair enough, if you think that person A keeps on breaking the law, watch him till he does and then arrest him. Keep doing so till learns.
The plan however seems to include for all sorts of other things as well. If there is someone in a household who is "persistently anti social" then they will check to see if you have paid your council tax, road tax have a car insured and even check if you have a TV licence. I do not which to defend people who break the law, but at least now we know what all those databases are for.
If you do not cooperate with the state, then they will dig and keep digging until they have something. Scary stuff. However you may feel that is fair enough as we are not talking about Mother Teresa here. It is not fair enough. If you happen to be the brother of a criminal it is not right that the police should single you out for special treatment. You have a right to be treated equally before the law.
Of course all this rampant populism fails to deal with the key issues which are that the police have far too much paperwork to do, even more if they arrest a youth and therefore not enough time to put feet on the ground to persistently arrest persistent offenders. Instead we now see the scary side of the database state, where if the state does not like you for one reason it will find many other ways of picking on you.
Democratic Primaries go on, and on, and on..
And on, and on, and on and on.....
It seems that Hillary Clinton just does not get it. She simply can't win the nomination.
So why has she vowed to carry on?
She will win the primaries next week, and even the week after, but so what. They will not be enough.
I have heard of one Democrat strategist on channel 4 outlining some sort of way she could win, reliant on super delegates coming to the conclusion that Barack Obama isn't winning the demographic that Hillary Clinton is, and hers is more important. In short, it seems they are saying that white working class voters have shown by voting for Hillary that they will not vote for a n.... n... gentleman of African extraction.
Lets take that load of tosh head on. Firstly it is quietly raising the race card, which is ridiculous, secondly it seems to me that they are saying that those who vote in Democratic nominations for Hillary Clinton are less likely to vote for Barack Obama at the general election.
Where is the evidence for this? Not only that, but if Hillary Clinton conceded and backed him, she would surely bring over all but the bigots?
I have to say Barack Obama is such a powerful speaker that if he gave a speech at a Klu Klux Klan meeting, I would expect him to have a 50/50 chance of getting a standing ovation. He is that good at it.
The reason she will not and has not therefore becomes questionable. Is she a racist? Or is she after something else, like guaranteeing the Vice President spot?
The idea that she is after that spot is odd to say the least. She will be 61 in October, and if Barack Obama wins the presidency and then gets a second term that means she will be 69 before she gets another crack at being the presidential nominee. Can you see the USA jumping back a generation? I can't. There will be another nominee making waves.
However a joint Omaba Clinton ticket could be the Republicans dream ticket because without having to utter a word they will get the support of both racists and misogynists whilst still having Hillary Clinton around to energise the Republican base like no other politician can which is fantastic for my betting position as I win biggest if Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination as president and John McCain wins as president.
The BBC has this.
It seems that Hillary Clinton just does not get it. She simply can't win the nomination.
So why has she vowed to carry on?
She will win the primaries next week, and even the week after, but so what. They will not be enough.
I have heard of one Democrat strategist on channel 4 outlining some sort of way she could win, reliant on super delegates coming to the conclusion that Barack Obama isn't winning the demographic that Hillary Clinton is, and hers is more important. In short, it seems they are saying that white working class voters have shown by voting for Hillary that they will not vote for a n.... n... gentleman of African extraction.
Lets take that load of tosh head on. Firstly it is quietly raising the race card, which is ridiculous, secondly it seems to me that they are saying that those who vote in Democratic nominations for Hillary Clinton are less likely to vote for Barack Obama at the general election.
Where is the evidence for this? Not only that, but if Hillary Clinton conceded and backed him, she would surely bring over all but the bigots?
I have to say Barack Obama is such a powerful speaker that if he gave a speech at a Klu Klux Klan meeting, I would expect him to have a 50/50 chance of getting a standing ovation. He is that good at it.
The reason she will not and has not therefore becomes questionable. Is she a racist? Or is she after something else, like guaranteeing the Vice President spot?
The idea that she is after that spot is odd to say the least. She will be 61 in October, and if Barack Obama wins the presidency and then gets a second term that means she will be 69 before she gets another crack at being the presidential nominee. Can you see the USA jumping back a generation? I can't. There will be another nominee making waves.
However a joint Omaba Clinton ticket could be the Republicans dream ticket because without having to utter a word they will get the support of both racists and misogynists whilst still having Hillary Clinton around to energise the Republican base like no other politician can which is fantastic for my betting position as I win biggest if Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination as president and John McCain wins as president.
The BBC has this.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Will Indiana and North Carolina settle the Democratic nomination?
The short answer is no.
Barack Obama has won North Carolina but it seems Indiana is still too close to call, according to this from the BBC.
I don't see Hilary Clinton conceding regardless.
However if Obama wins Indiana then the pressure on Hilary will grow. She has ignored it so far though.
Barack Obama has won North Carolina but it seems Indiana is still too close to call, according to this from the BBC.
I don't see Hilary Clinton conceding regardless.
However if Obama wins Indiana then the pressure on Hilary will grow. She has ignored it so far though.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Crewe and Nantwich by election: Who is going to win?
The short answer is I suspect not Labour.
The Conservatives clearly won the local elections there on the 1st of May pushing Labour into 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats. That in my view puts us as clear favourites though the Liberal Democrat by election machine is good.
However both Labour and The Liberal Democrats seem to have irritated their base. The former by undue haste in moving the writ for the by election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral then parachuting her daughter, a Brown loyalist, in the latter by talking rubbish about how our candidate is not local because he ran the New york Marathon.
More later, meanwhile the BBC has this.
The Conservatives clearly won the local elections there on the 1st of May pushing Labour into 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats. That in my view puts us as clear favourites though the Liberal Democrat by election machine is good.
However both Labour and The Liberal Democrats seem to have irritated their base. The former by undue haste in moving the writ for the by election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral then parachuting her daughter, a Brown loyalist, in the latter by talking rubbish about how our candidate is not local because he ran the New york Marathon.
More later, meanwhile the BBC has this.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Captain of the Titanic reassures crew
Gordon Brown, the captain of the Titanic has given several interviews today in which he sought to reassure his crew that despite hitting that massive iceberg on Thursday that he could steer the Labour party safely to another election victory. Others were a bit more sceptical.
Meanwhile Matt in the Telegraph a few days ago has this cartoon which really says it all.
Meanwhile Matt in the Telegraph a few days ago has this cartoon which really says it all.
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Dogs in mangers to be humanely euthanised!
This is the big shock news from Boris Johnson's speech after signing his acceptance of office. If you keep any dogs in mangers, you have been warned.
You can view the whole speech here.
That said he does seem keen to build a government of all the talents. It will be interesting to see what next week brings.
You can view the whole speech here.
That said he does seem keen to build a government of all the talents. It will be interesting to see what next week brings.
Is it just me, or has the BBC been a pile of excrement?
Well is it just me?
From the ridiculous Stalin to Mr Bean stuff, the cold winter bit or the wild west show over the Liberal Democrat vote that Jeremy Vine did last night to the lack of rolling results as they came in for the London mayoral elections the BBC has been a large pile of fetid urine soaked manure of the most odious kind.
One person who texted me insisted that it was because they are all lefties. I say no, it is because they are all a complete bunch of merchant bankers. It has nothing to do with political bias, it has all to do with the sort of bankers in the news departments of the BBC.
In order to get up to date results I decamped to my local pub and watched it on Sky news. There was no sound, but then there was no Jeremy Vine making a spectacle of himself. What there was in the bottom right hand corner of the screen was up to date results which were missing from the BBC.
From the ridiculous Stalin to Mr Bean stuff, the cold winter bit or the wild west show over the Liberal Democrat vote that Jeremy Vine did last night to the lack of rolling results as they came in for the London mayoral elections the BBC has been a large pile of fetid urine soaked manure of the most odious kind.
One person who texted me insisted that it was because they are all lefties. I say no, it is because they are all a complete bunch of merchant bankers. It has nothing to do with political bias, it has all to do with the sort of bankers in the news departments of the BBC.
In order to get up to date results I decamped to my local pub and watched it on Sky news. There was no sound, but then there was no Jeremy Vine making a spectacle of himself. What there was in the bottom right hand corner of the screen was up to date results which were missing from the BBC.
That Boris Speech: Echos of Thatcher.
in victory and it echoed I have to say I thought Boris' acceptance speech was fantastic. MagnanimousMargaret Thatcher's speech when she took office in 1979, echoing Saint Francis of Assisi's prayer.
Boris said:
Ken Livingstone also delivered a gracious speech.
Well done all.
Can I just say this.
The voting is over. It is excruciatingly hard work to lose an election,
(well, it is if you are trying to win) let alone winning one, however the work for the winner has only just begun.
I am personally confident that Boris Johnson will be a fantastic Mayor of London and will deliver results even if Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh is his diplomatic adviser. He may say some things that will throw seasoned hacks in to spin, but that is just Boris.
Boris said:
Where there have been mistakes we will rectify them,Outstanding speech. I should add that he started by thanking all those who voted against him many of whom he said he had met over the last month, not all of whom were entirely polite.
where there are achievements we will build on them
where there are neglected opportunities we will seize on them.
Ken Livingstone also delivered a gracious speech.
Well done all.
Can I just say this.
The voting is over. It is excruciatingly hard work to lose an election,
(well, it is if you are trying to win) let alone winning one, however the work for the winner has only just begun.
I am personally confident that Boris Johnson will be a fantastic Mayor of London and will deliver results even if Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh is his diplomatic adviser. He may say some things that will throw seasoned hacks in to spin, but that is just Boris.
Ken Livingstone wins more votes in London than he has ever done!
However, Boris Johnson won more and so is Mayor of London.
It is a fantastic result.
Brian Paddick also won more votes for the Liberal Democrats than they have in the past.
This is a win for the Conservative party, but a massive win for democracy as voters have turned out in much larger numbers than they have in the past.
It is a fantastic result.
Brian Paddick also won more votes for the Liberal Democrats than they have in the past.
This is a win for the Conservative party, but a massive win for democracy as voters have turned out in much larger numbers than they have in the past.
Friday, May 02, 2008
Liberal Democrats lose Liverpool then regain it this afternoon?
Rather amusingly Labour took enough seats of the Liberal Democrats to put Liverpool into No Overall Control. Then this afternoon they signed up an independent Labour councilor and regained control.
Bizarre but true. See the BBC here.
Bizarre but true. See the BBC here.
Local Elections: Conservatives outstanding win!
The local elections have produced an outstanding victory for the Conservatives, gaining 256 seats.
The last time these elections were held was a very low ebb for Labour. In reality it would have been possible for Labour to claw back some net gains, certainly with the Brown bounce last summer. All that is now gone and labour have had a right kicking losing 331 seats.
The BBC have calculated the national share of the vote and that puts Labour in third place on 24% of the vote with the Conservatives on 44% and the Liberal Democrats on 25%. This is the worst Labour result for 40 years.
The BBC has this.
The last time these elections were held was a very low ebb for Labour. In reality it would have been possible for Labour to claw back some net gains, certainly with the Brown bounce last summer. All that is now gone and labour have had a right kicking losing 331 seats.
The BBC have calculated the national share of the vote and that puts Labour in third place on 24% of the vote with the Conservatives on 44% and the Liberal Democrats on 25%. This is the worst Labour result for 40 years.
The BBC has this.
Conservatives gain Southampton!
Fantastic.
Also Nuneaton and Bedworth!
Looks like a good night for the Conservatives.
Also Nuneaton and Bedworth!
Looks like a good night for the Conservatives.
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Turnout high in Conservative areas
Various reports on blogs are indicating that turnout is high in Conservative areas and low in Labour ones. See Iain Dales blog here and politicalbetting here.
The mood for a change in London also seems strong. Boris Johnson looks like he is going to win.
The mood for a change in London also seems strong. Boris Johnson looks like he is going to win.
Boris to win London Mayoral Election!
Well, that is my prediction. Boris Johnson MP will beat Ken Livingston in the race to be the next mayor of London.
That said the question will be by how much. According to this thread on politicalbetting.com the last YouGov poll is much tighter than before.
To be honest I don't know what the margin will be but what I do know is that there seems to be a mood for a change. Labour voters are demotivated and we have the wind in our sails.
On the wider picture I suspect we will pick up over 100 seats in the council elections which will be a real bonus because 2004 when these seats were last contested was already a very low water mark for Labour. To give you some idea of how bad that was, if these elections were held with the same positive sentiment that existed for Gordon Brown between June and September last year then Labour would have gained at least 100 seats. No one thinks they will have any net gains now.
That said the question will be by how much. According to this thread on politicalbetting.com the last YouGov poll is much tighter than before.
To be honest I don't know what the margin will be but what I do know is that there seems to be a mood for a change. Labour voters are demotivated and we have the wind in our sails.
On the wider picture I suspect we will pick up over 100 seats in the council elections which will be a real bonus because 2004 when these seats were last contested was already a very low water mark for Labour. To give you some idea of how bad that was, if these elections were held with the same positive sentiment that existed for Gordon Brown between June and September last year then Labour would have gained at least 100 seats. No one thinks they will have any net gains now.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Voter Fraud to mar London and local elections
Those of us who follow politics know about voter fraud and how easy it now is. This will no doubt be a factor in some elections on Thursday.
The Labour government brought in universal postal votes in order to rig the voting system in their favour however at the expense of introducing much fraud.
Well there is a new report out by the Joseph Rowntree foundation that backs that up. Having said that I am not sure it tells us anything we did not already know. The Times has this article here.
The Labour government brought in universal postal votes in order to rig the voting system in their favour however at the expense of introducing much fraud.
Well there is a new report out by the Joseph Rowntree foundation that backs that up. Having said that I am not sure it tells us anything we did not already know. The Times has this article here.
Gene Therapy working! 18 year old has his sight fixed.
One of the interesting things about modern times is genetic testing.
In its early days this led to fears that if you had a genetic test which said you were very likely to get say cancer, you then would not be able to get life insurance.
However now we have the upside of the testing which is gene therapy. It is now being tried on a rare genetic condition that causes eyesight to generate over time until it is lost.
Well, the Independent has a headline "The blind man who was given the gift of sight by gene therapy" which may be over egging it a little as he still had some residual sight so was not blind though he would have become so in time.
What is now going to happen is the techniques and understanding of how to replace defective genes in situ will grow in leaps and bounds, which may well lead to curers for many diseases which are at there heart genetic, and where they don't lead to a full cure they may at least stop the progress of the diseases.
The BBC has this.
In its early days this led to fears that if you had a genetic test which said you were very likely to get say cancer, you then would not be able to get life insurance.
However now we have the upside of the testing which is gene therapy. It is now being tried on a rare genetic condition that causes eyesight to generate over time until it is lost.
Well, the Independent has a headline "The blind man who was given the gift of sight by gene therapy" which may be over egging it a little as he still had some residual sight so was not blind though he would have become so in time.
What is now going to happen is the techniques and understanding of how to replace defective genes in situ will grow in leaps and bounds, which may well lead to curers for many diseases which are at there heart genetic, and where they don't lead to a full cure they may at least stop the progress of the diseases.
The BBC has this.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Humphrey Lyttelton dies at 86
I have to wonder if he would say it was not a moment too soon.
Humphrey Lyttelton was and I suppose still is a legendary jazz musician, but I remember him for "I am sorry, I haven't a clue" a Radio 4 show that I have been a fan of since I was knee high to a grasshopper.
I will miss this great talent on the one hand but celebrate his life on the other.
Alas, I can't think of any funny innuendo.
The BBC has this whilst wikipedia has this.
He will live in my heart forever, and will always be remembered with a chuckle.
Humphrey Lyttelton was and I suppose still is a legendary jazz musician, but I remember him for "I am sorry, I haven't a clue" a Radio 4 show that I have been a fan of since I was knee high to a grasshopper.
I will miss this great talent on the one hand but celebrate his life on the other.
Alas, I can't think of any funny innuendo.
The BBC has this whilst wikipedia has this.
He will live in my heart forever, and will always be remembered with a chuckle.
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