Labour hits historic low in new poll!

A YouGov poll in today's Telegraph shows Labour have hit their lowest poll percentage since polling began in 1943, worse even than Michael Foot's worst showing.

The poll has the Conservatives on 47% (+3), Labour on 23% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1).

Anthony Wells election calculator gives:
Conservatives 450 (+252)
Labour 144 (-212)
Liberal Democrats 27 (-35)
Others 11 (-1)
Northern Ireland 18 (NC)

This of course would be devastating for Labour if these numbers were repeated at a general election. I don't think it would be quite that bad for Labour, but then I did not think we would be quite this far ahead in the polls either.

I must admit I may have to rethink my position on this. I had worked on the basis that Gordon Brown was safe as PM for a number of reasons: Labour MP's could not get rid of a second leader in one parliament and look credible (they would also face pressure to hold a general election) and that there are enough Brown acolytes around to hold the party together by fear. Accordingly I had been working on the basis of Gordon Brown being PM as we go into an election in 2010.

I may be changing my mind. Guido points out did say how much of a disaster Gordon Brown would be as PM. I think he is being that us right leaning bloggersdisingenuous. No one could have thought he would be quite this bad. Also I suspect that Gordon's band of trusted acolytes is actually dwindling fast. I also doubt they can cast as much fear in Labour MP's as the polls do. The net result is that Gordon Brown is now far from safe as PM.

Politicalbetting also has this and this.

Are house prices collapsing?

There is more doom and gloom about with the latest survey from the Nationwide about house prices. Apparently they have fallen for the 7th month in a row. (The BBC has this)

There is an interesting if gloomy article in the Guardian here which not only points out (as the BBC article does) that the rate of fall since this time last year is 4.4% the worst since 1992, but that over the last 3 months it has been falling at an annualised rated of 16%, worse than since the Nationwide started to collect this information.

Is this a good thing? Well, house prices are ridiculous, so in the long term a correction is good. In the short term however it is dire. It is going to cause people untold pain and will cause pain in the wider economy as well.

It has been obvious to me that housing had become and asset bubble for some years now, and we all know that these bubbles burst. We also know that causes pain, which is not good. The question is what can be done about it in advance? It is a hard one, but have to wonder what interest rates would have done to the housing market if they were tied to RPI not CPI. The former includes for housing costs the latter does not. Would that have curbed the excesses of the housing market, defusing the bubble before it burst?

Could Labour debt bankrupt Gordon Brown?

The Guardian has an interesting article today on the continuing financial woes of the Labour party and how it may well go bust next month. (Also see this discussion on Politicalbetting)

It goes on to point out that if it does so then members of the NEC would be liable for the debts, including the following MP's.

* Janet Anderson MP (Div. V - PLP/ELP)
* Gordon Brown MP (Leader)
* Angela Eagle MP (Government)
* Harriet Harman MP (Deputy Leader)
* Pat McFadden MP (Government)
* Dawn Primarolo MP (Government)
* Dennis Skinner MP (Div. V - PLP/EPLP)
* Keith Vaz MP (Black Socialist Society)

(Hat tip to Timothy's helpful post here on PoliticalBetting)

My understanding is that if you are an undischarged bankrupt you can't be an MP. So there could be some interesting by elections.

The other interesting point is that the GMB have indemnified their two members on the NEC. Depending on how they have done this, it could leave the GMB liable for all Labour's debt, if the indemnity is to cover all loses. If however the indemnity allows for its members to go bankrupt but then the GMB will, as their "friend" buy out their interest in their assets (such as houses and pensions) then obviously that will not be a problem.

The big question is, however, will Labour go bust?

No. I can't see it happening. No matter how much noise the creditors make something will turn up or some deal will be negotiated. What is clear though is that Labour is in no shape to fight any elections.

Prime Minister Canute orders back tide of oil price increases!

According to this article in the BBC, Prime Minister Canute (AKA Gordon Brown) has ordained that oil prices must go down.

As Guido noted, having formerly noted that oil prices had already dropped from $135 per barrel to $126, prices rose on Gordon Brown's request.

Oops.

Filth: The Mary Whitehouse story

I have just watched Filth: The Mary Whitehouse story, with Julie Walters playing Mary Whitehouse.

I have to say that it was both a very moving inspiring and funny programme.

I appreciate that Mary Whitehouse is not every ones cup of tea, neither was she mine, but I have now got a great deal of respect and admiration for her.

I had not realised how much of a campaign of personal vilification had been launched against her, and more shockingly her family.

It took a lot of courage to make the stand that she did, and organise the campaign that she did. She showed that people power can work.

She was also responsible for the concept of the watershed, which many parents are truly grateful for.

The mistake of Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes

I already highlighted Denis MacShane's opinion piece in yesterday's Telegraph .

Both Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes use that as some kind of argument to say that David Cameron should be saying that we will be cutting taxes as soon as we get in. They are both wrong for a number of reasons.

• There is a problem of political presentation. If we say we are going to cut spending then the vacuous left will equate that (wrongly) to a number of nurses or doctors. It is true that someone like Denis MacShane calling for tax cuts makes it easier and makes it harder for Labour to make the argument over nurses etc.
• Who carries out the cuts? This is important because if the management responsible for the waste are asked to make cuts then they tend to cut what is necessary over what is waste. They are only wasting money because they are incompetent anyway. As an example Margaret Thatcher tried to cut 15% from the NHS budget in the 1980's. I worked in the NHS at the time and you could see that could be done. The only problem is that the people doing the cuts were to stupid to see where to do it so cut services instead.
• We do not know how bad the public finances are going to be when we win the next general election. We already know that Labour will borrow money hand over fist to pay for their own mistakes like the 10p tax fiasco and hock the country to the eyeballs in a fascist finance scheme.

So, we need to be careful. We are promising sustainably lower taxes, which can only be achieved by being careful and thoughtful. As an example by looking to reduce family breakdowns and the associated costs to society and the tax payer that ensues. We do need to cut out waste but we need to find the right mechanisms for doing that, like fund holding GP's. The problem is that there will not necessarily be any immediate tax benefit to any of this on day one. Many policy changes will take 3 to 5 years to start having a positive effect. In the meantime we can "share the proceeds of growth".

Denis MacShane: A closet Conservative?

Denis MacShane has an interesting comment piece in today's Telegraph here. Below is a sample.

A government should be no different. Labour should not be frightened of being a party that leaves more money in the pockets of hard-working individuals, starting with those at the lower end of the income scale. A Labour government that got serious about weaning its bureaucracy and clients off dependency on the citizen's money would find itself popular again. David Cameron's only policy to curb public spending appears to be abolishing MPs' pension rights, which may be no problem when your household's net worth is in the millions. Today's Tories are not toffs in top hats, but most shadow cabinet members are very wealthy and do not experience the weekly worries of making ends meet.

Worth a read.

One thing that strikes me though is how much of it seems died in the wool Conservative thinking.

Another week, another rebellion?

This weeks rebellion on the Labour benches is over car tax, specifically the way in which tax increases for higher emitting vehicles will now be backdated to 2001.

According to this article in the Telegraph the change affects 18 million drivers, whilst the Daily Mail has this.

This seems to be causing some angst on the Labour benches, and not because a green tax is being raised, but because it is being done retrospectively.

There are a number of issues with the tax as proposed of course, like how it seems to hit quite a lot of what people think of as "family cars" and also the fact that it is more likely that a 7 year old family car is likely to be owned by someone on lower income than a new one.

I would pose the question "what will next weeks revolt be about?" but we still have the 42 days thing coming up.

Has a Prime minister ever looked so weak and inept?

£250,000 for hurt feelings, £57,000 for losing a leg?

Apparently according to this article in the Telegraph a paratrooper who was a man called Ian Hamilton who changed to a woman called Jan Hamilton has been given £250,000 in an out of court settlement by the MOD for "hurt feelings" after being required to turn up in "male uniform" to a medical.

Ah diddums.

Hurt feelings?

Paratroopers in Iraq and Afghanistan get a lot more than hurt feelings, they get injuries of all sorts, followed by the MOD doing its level best to hand out as little money as possible, despite a clear responsibility to do so yet it has caved in over "hurt feelings".

Has the world gone mad?

The Phoenix has landed!

I would just like to say well done to NASA for landing its Phoenix probe on Mars' North pole. It will be looking for water and other signs of life.

I wish the mission well.

The BBC has this.

Oil Price Crash imminent!

Oil is still continuing to rise relentlessly in price. Some fear it will hot £200 a barrel.

It might just do that but it will crash, make no mistake about that.

The reason why it will crash is that supply does in fact outstrip demand, though not by much and oil states are beginning to have trouble selling their oil. In fact according to this comment piece in the Times yesterday oil tankers are waiting in ports laden with oil awaiting a buyer whilst Iran can't sell enough so is pumping less. Prices are rising because oil speculators think it should and are buying and selling futures at inflated prices.

The oil market is yet another asset bubble. It will burst. When it does oil will return to $70 a barrel.

Conservatives gain Crewe and Nantwich with almost 50% of the vote!

The Conservative party has gained Crewe and Nantwich from Labour!

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Monster Raving Loony	The Flying Brick	236	0.57
Labour	Tamsin Dunwoody	12679	30.5
Independent	Gemma Garrett	113	0.27
UK Independence	Mike Nattrass	922	2.22
English Democrats	David Roberts	275	0.66
Liberal Democrat	Elizabeth Shenton	6040	14.53
Green	Robert Smith	359	0.86
Cut Tax on Diesel and Petrol	Paul Thorogood	118	0.28
Conservative	Edward Timpson	20539	49.41
Independent	Mark Walklate	217	0.52
Spoiled ballots		67
totals		41565

Crewe and Nantwich: Conservatives to get 50%?

this was raised as a possibility earlier but it seems that even Erick Pickles thinks we can get 50% of the vote.

If so, that is outstanding!

Crewe and Nantwich turnout 58.2%!

This is a staggering turnout for a by election.

If the turnout is 58.2% that is impressive.

Wow.

Crewe and Nantwich: Labour's dire predictions!

I have heard from a Labour MP that he thinks the Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be grim.

Ben Brogan has heard similar with some Labour people telling him that they expect the Conservatives to get over 50%.

This is of course slightly nuts as there are 10 candidates and that makes it almost impossible to get over 50%.

The other thing people are watching for is if the swing is higher than Eastbourne in 1990 (20%), because not only did the Conservatives win the seat back at the next general election but also won a majority in the House of Commons. The thinking seems to be that they would win the seat back at the next general election. That analysis misses the way that we got rid of Mrs Thatcher and a few hated policies.

Crewe and Nantwich By Election:My prediction

Well, I predict a Conservative win, but then so does just about everyone else apart from Eric Pickles who is working on the basis that this is an uphill struggle. Fair enough, he is in charge of the campaign and complacency is the quickest way to lose an election.

The big question is what will the fall out be like. Well here is my view:

1. A Conservative win, even by one vote breaks a duck.

2. If the Conservatives achieve a swing of 15% then Labour are in trouble and set to lose the next election.

3. If the Conservatives get a swing of more than 20% Gordon Brown will be dragged out of number 10 by the men in grey suits and shot in the street.

You do have to wonder what place Labour and the Liberal Democrats will come though, and what percentage of the vote they will get.

I sense that die hards of either party will turn out regardless and so they must get at least 10% each, however they have both done immense damage to both their local activist base and core vote by the way they have run their campaign. We shall have to see how bad it gets.

Paddy Power calls Crewe and Nantwich for the Conservatives!

The Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has, according to this article on politicalbetting called the Crewe and Nantwich by election for the Conservatives and paid out on those bets already.

Personally I think this is nuts and unhelpful but then if it is correct then the bookmaker gets a lot of kudos.

There has been a lot of money placed on this by election, pretty much all on the Conservatives. The bookmakers stand to lose a fortune if we win tomorrow.

Is Alan Milburn about to mount a leadership challenge?

Rumours reached me last night that Alan Milburn, the former health Secretary and strategist of Labour's 2005 general election campaign is to challenge Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership this weekend, presumably on the basis that Labour will get absolutely smashed in the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

My source for the rumour is a reliable Labour insider, who has dual sourced it himself. Furthermore this thread on Politicalbetting shows that other Labour insiders are talking about it as well.

I do not know how successful such a bid will be, but it really does look like ferrets will be fighting in a sack.

Obama the Messiah

Well, perhaps that is over egging it a bit but according to this post Barack Obama is pulling in massive crowds lined up on every available vantage point to hear the man speak.

He is a truly inspirational speaker, and more importantly, whilst of African decent is not a traditional "victim" black politician. He will have the ability to lead.

I still want Senator John McCain to win, and think he may well do so, but one thing is sure, Barack Obama will one day be President of the United states of America.

When Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will be involved in a presidential race like no other for decades which will reinvigorate American politics and will raise turnout. All very good for Democracy.

Labour poll position still dire

It looks like Labour's poll woes continue despite the £2.7 billion bribe and yet another relaunch.

The Sunday Times has news of a Yougov poll with the the Conservatives on 45% (+1), Labour on 25% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1). (Please note the changes are on the last Yougov Sunday Times poll, not the last Yougov poll which had the Conservatives 26% ahead)

The Independent on Sunday has news of a 17% lead in a Comres poll. It places the Conservatives on 43% (+3), Labour on 26% (NC) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (+1).

It should be noted this is the highest percentage that Comres has given the Conservative party. It in combination with other polls shows that Labour is drifting in the mid twenties which should come as a shock to them as that is lower than Michael Foot achieved in 1983, with a manifesto described as the longest suicide note in history.

Things do not look good for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich either with this poll in the News of the World indicating a decisive Conservative victory. It places the Conservatives on 45% compared to Labour on 37% with the Liberal Democrats on 14%.