Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Brexit: Project fear turns to project fact.... Project Fear 2.0

For all those irresponsible people who voted to leave the EU... Project fear is turning to project fact.

Forecasts show that the government will have to borrow £100 billion more than it would have otherwise...

And this is what the remoaners will be saying tomorrow.

However, it's as rubbish as the project fear was that they are now claiming will be fact.

The reason why is rubbish is this: The borrowing forecasts are just that, and they are based on economic forecasts. These have been downgraded. That isn't a surprise, after all the economists threatened that they would downgrade our growth forecasts and hence downgrade the tax revenue forecasts.

Thing is though... They are just forecasts. What is more, since 2008, economists have (or at least the OBR has) forecast that tax revenue would be higher than it turned out to be. Growth and tax did not meet forecasts. The forecasts for post Brexit were dire and turned out to be wrong. They were wrong. In fact our economy is now growing faster than forecast and so is tax revenue.

So when remoaners say project fear is turning into project fact, it isn't. Project fear has turned into project forecast, or perhaps better known as project fear 2.0.

No comments: