Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Loose lips sink ships

So when you blog or pass on any information remember this. During the second World War there were campaigns to get people not to repeat important and vital information. After all you could be overheard and provide information which may give a German spy a clue on Allied shipping which they could pass on, resulting in ships being sunk.

In fact to give you an idea of how careful we were, Bletchley Park (who broke the Enigma codes) had worked out that Coventry was going to be bombed but as it was the only source of that information, doing anything about it would let the Germans know we had broken Enigma and would have cost far more lives.

In this day and age things are very different. When the Americans get a lead on Osama Bin Laden because they can trace his satellite phone the US press just loved publishing that, it sold a few more papers but ultimately he just turned his phone off so a valuable line of intelligence was lost.

Well, the press, presumably briefed by someone "close to the investigation" are keen to tell us exactly how the current terrorist operation was rolled up. They say that the two cars in London yielded vital intelligence to whit mobile phones ....

We have in essence told the enemy exactly what they did wrong. Do we seriously think they will not learn?

This is nothing short of treason, yet the same bunch of cretinous jerks have insisted we can't use intercept evidence because it would reveal vital information about how we do things whilst at the same time revealing vital information how we do things.

Shameful.

The end of the War on Terror?

I have often criticised the language used in the somewhat laughably named "War on Terror" and terms like Islamo fascist.

In this article I dealt with how you can't have a war on terror because terrorism is a defined act and you are not going to remove it from every dictionary, whilst also pointing out that it is a political war as well as a military one and we need to win the political one.

I have pointed out that terms like Islamo Fascist serve the enemy by driving people toward them rather than us. (See this article here).

It seems that some while ago David Cameron took that up and started to question the language. Well now in the face of the current threat the government, or more specifically Jacqui Smith have stopped using stupid language that appeals to our core vote whilst alienating the very people we need to bring on side.

Remember this, asymmetric wars are primarily political, and as such language is very important.

For more on the War on Terror see here.

Monday, July 02, 2007

NHS Capital Spending in England cut by a third, but not in Scotland or Wales

In one of Gordon Brown's last acts as chancellor he has cut the hospital building program in England by one third whilst leaving that in Scotland and Wales alone.

Is that fair?

It does explain why there are huge and increasing problems in the NHS, in part caused by Dr John Reid's appalling time as Secretary of State for Health making a mess of Doctors pay.

They even want to downgrade our local hospital the Princess Royal and sell off some of the land, in what is a fairly new state of the art hospital to move patients to an overcrowded and for many in central Sussex difficult to get to hospital in Brighton.

Ridiculous.

The FT has this.

No more Conservative defections to Labour?

I bring you shocking news that Blinky Ed Balls appears to have over egged the pudding somewhat by suggesting that Thursday would be better than Tuesday.

Rumours then reached me that there would be a couple of defections over the weekend.

They have not materialised.

The reality is that Ed Balls has been trying to sow division and confusion in opposition ranks. It has worked a treat with the Liberal Democrats, but not quite with the Conservatives.

I take this opportunity to pour scorn on all those Conservative bloggers and commentators who have been virtually dragging out and shooting potential defectors in what it is they have written. All I can say is that you have been doing Ed Balls work for him, and shame on you.

Beware of the Baby Snatchers and the Secret Courts

According to figures obtained by the Sunday Telegraph the numbers of babies less than 1 week old taken into care has risen by 3 times since 1997 to 900 a year whilst the total number under 1 year old have risen from 970 to 2,120.

These cases then go before the Family Courts which operate in complete secrecy. To give you an idea how bad it is a Solicitor concerned about one such case (Sarah Harman) was suspended from practicing for three months for showing papers to the then Solicitor General, Harriet Harman (her younger sister).

These cases can't be discussed beyond a very narrow group of people, breach of this secrecy counts as contempt of court. So we don't know what goes on in these courts. What is more they rely on expert evidence which is frequently from one source.

It gets worse than that though. Unless you can find evidence to prove the expert wrong there is no point in appealing, it takes time and money to find new expert witness evidence and both are frequently in short supply as young children end up being put up for adoption fairly quickly. Once adopted that is it. No appeal will get the children back. They are lost and gone forever.

There was a case of a family from Norfolk who had had 3 children taken into care on the footing that it had suspicious broken bones, and without any need to prove who did what the children were taken into care. When the fourth child was on the way they went on the run and got as far as Ireland. Regrettably they were sent back. However they eventually scored a victory as their council backed down and accepted that the child whose broken bones led to their children being taken into care did in fact have a medical condition which led to that. By this time of course the 3 other children had been adopted so no appeal will get them back. This is a full life sentence for a family convicted not beyond reasonably doubt, but on the balance of probabilities with no appeal, no time of fro good behavior or anything else and all done in the strictest secrecy.

Some say that the numbers are going up because of the incentives for councils to get more children adopted, and it is a lot easier to get a new born adopted. Obviously this has been denied.

There is however a real problem here. Children are being taken away from their families, and once adopted there is no recourse to law, that is it, the end. This happens in secret so there is no scrutiny. This is patently unjust and wrong, even though the secrecy is supposedly there for the best of reasons, to protect the anonymity and best interests of the children. It seems to me that the secrecy now only benefits the system by hiding the injustice and absurdity of some of the decisions.

John Hemming MP has a blog and frequently raises this issue. In this article he links to a Times law report of a judgement in the Court of Appeal which came to the conclusion that as the law currently stands if a child is taken into care and it now should no longer be in care, that if the judge views it in the best interest of the child then that child will be adopted.

The Sunday Telegraph has this.

Sunday, July 01, 2007

Iran on the brink as the working class blame Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

The fuel protests in Iran last week seem to be crystallising into a general feeling that president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is letting his core voters, the average working man in Iran down.

Not only do they have to face petrol rationing but also inflation that is much higher than it used to be largely caused by president Ahmadinejad's policies and sanctions.

It seems that he also has some madcap plan to build steel plants well away from the sources or Iron ore as well, which shows just how daft he is.

The regime does appear to be keeping intellectual dissent stifled and the reformists are divided but there is an increasing amount of grass roots discontent on the streets.

I expect Iran will try to pull some sort of stunt to get its people to unite behind it. It would be a mistake to help them out. What we need to do is quietly increase the pressure and avoid sabre rattling.

The Telegraph has this.

Comment from Hassan Butt, an ex Jihadi extremist

There is an interesting piece in today's Observer written by Hassan Butt, and ex jihadi, here.

It makes interesting reading.

Observations on the current terror campaign

After two car bombs were found in London and one has been driven into Glasgow airport, I won't do a full round up of the news, but I will make a few observations.

Clearly the people involved this time have not been successful, however many got away and they may well learn. We do need to find them.

There have been 3 vehicles involved. It is possible that they were all fitted out by the same team, and in the same place. This would be a lockup garage, possibly able to hold one, two or three cars at the same time. if you have recently rented such premises to someone be on the look out for odd comings and goings. If you have suspicions let the police know.

I have so far been pleased with the governments response. Serious but not scare mongering nor looking, so far, to drive through yet more silly measures on the back of this. This threat will not be beaten by the endless passing of yet more laws, but may be beaten by careful hard work.

I understand that one of the two arrested in the Glasgow Airport attack was wearing a suicide belt. He is currently critical in hospital. I suspect that is not the half of it, I suspect he is outraged at the maker of the belt.

The suspect device at the Glasgow hospital where the suspects were taken to may well have been the suicide belt that one of the suspects had.

Whilst we do need to raise our game in terms of public vigilance, security service action and budgets we should also put some numbers in perspective.

We have had less than 100 people killed by terrorists in the last 10 years. In that time over 300,000 have died in road accidents, roughly 150,000 have died of hospital acquired infections and millions have died of cancer.

You are very very unlikely to die in a terrorist attack so don't panic, and carry on.

Saturday, June 30, 2007

Spare a thought for the tow truck crew

One of the things I thought was fascinating about the two car bombs found in London is that one of them was towed away after having been given a ticket and then clamped.

When the crew who towed the car away realise who they are, there will be no alcohol or cigarettes in the house, nor will there be any clean underpants.

Friday, June 29, 2007

Gordon Brown gets a bounce in the polls

According to reports on Conservative home and politicalbetting.com Gordon Brown has a bounce.

Figures are not yet clear but an ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow will show Labour on 39% compared to the Conservatives on 35%. Other numbers are not yet available.

I expected some bounce for Brown, but this is a little bigger than expected. I don't think it will last past the conference season, nor is it as big as John Major's bounce in 1990, which took the Conservative party to 49% compared to 39% for Labour. (hat tip to Liberal Tory here for the numbers, but please note that a 17 year old poll is not that good a poll.)

So in essence Gordon Brown does not have the poll lead he needs to guarantee victory in 3 years time and it is touch and go now.

My take is this, Gordon's best chance of getting reelected is to call a general election sooner rather than later. The longer he leaves it the more the "it's time for a change" will count against him.
If he takes this chance and calls a general election for September or October he may get an overall majority, though my money would be on a hung parliament. If he leaves it Labour will lose.

I will add more when I have seen the online reports. There is also a Yougov poll with a Labour lead, Labour 38%, Conservatives 35%, from politicalbetting.com here.

Is there going to be a Revolution in Iran?

For some time now I and many others have been hearing about rumblings on the streets of Tehran, and indeed other parts of Iran. The population of Iran is becoming younger by the day and frankly they are not happy.

Iran is a religious country full of traditions, but people do need jobs and frankly the economy stinks. Inflation is running at 20 to 30%. Not an issue that would bring about a revolution on its own, but it adds to the mix. Then there is unemployment which is high and growing, disaffection with the rules of the theocracy and last but not least the sudden imposition of petrol rationing.

Iran does not have much in the way of refining capacity so although it produces and exports a lot of oil, it does not produce petrol. The problem here is that it then has to import petrol, which it then subsidises, at immense cost to the treasury. Iran is running out of the cash to buy petrol.

Obviously the answer is simple, or at least it should be, Iran has some very clever scientists capable of building some test nuclear plant and clearly seems to think it has the money to do so, so it clearly can and indeed ought to develop its own refineries. It isn't. Instead it is spending vast amounts of money not only on its own defence, but a nuclear program which is causing the country immense problems and money on mucking about in other peoples countries as well, like hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah to fund the rebuilding the the Lebanon, a war which the average Iranian in the street did not ask for or want to be involved in.

Iran's economy is slowly collapsing when it should be reaching dizzying heights. It is doing so because Iran's government has grand plans of its own. The people don't care. They want jobs and security.

So what happened when petrol was rationed? Well the rationing was imposed without consultation or advanced warning to anyone, including the petrol station owners or the police. The result was riots and petrol stations being burnt down. The text messaging service has been closed down so that people can't organise protests and journalists are being ordered not to report any trouble. Clearly the government is under pressure.

What the Iranian government needs right now is some external threat to unite the people. It had that in the sabre rattling over its nuclear plans, and it helped. We need to remove the obvious threats to Iran so that it can't unite its people (as well as making sure they can a news service that tells them how bad things really are in Iran). In short we need to appear to take the pressure off.

That does not mean we stop working on its nuclear program, it just means we do so quietly and carefully so as not to give the Iranian regime ammunition to unite the Iranian people behind it.

The BBC has this on the fuel protests.

Base Interest rate set to rise, and probably rise again

Sir John Gieve, deputy governor of the Bank of England has said that the Bank of England's base interest rate is too low, and are helping to fuel the demand for loans and credit.

Some analysts expect the interest rate to hit 6% by the end of the year.

The fact is that it has been obvious that consumer debt has been out of control for years as indeed has government debt but not much has been done about it.

The chickens will be coming home to roost. I just hope it is gentle.

The BBC has this.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Felicity Jane Lowde jailed for 6 months today

According to this report in the Oxford Mail Felicity Jane Lowde jailed for 6 months today, been given a 5 year ASBO and has a restraining order against her. This follows on from persistent online harassment of Rachel North.

She was originally convicted in April in her absence as she did not attend court and had sacked her defence team. A warrant was issued for her arrest, hence the wanted campaign, and then arrested in an Internet cafe on Brick Lane on the 7th of June.

Regret ably there is no mention of treatment of help for any mental health issues.

Felicity Lowde did say she was appealing, a sentiment I do not share.

Ministry of Defence Just not important

We have our forces engaged in very difficult fighting situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet apparently Gordon Brown does not think the Ministry of Defence needs its own dedicated minister.

Des Browne, the buffoon who should have been sacked after allowing the Iranian hostages to sell their stories not only stays at defence, but has been made minister for Scotland as well!

Labour sources insist that Scotland is a part time job after devolution. Well that may well be so, but the Ministry of Defence most certainly is not.

What are are troops supposed to think now they have a part timer in charge?

Gordon Brown has made a drastic blunder here.

Cash For Peerages, Tony Blair questioned by Police again! Was it under caution?

Apparently Tony Blair has been questioned again by police according to the Press Association.

I wonder if it was under caution, after all they wanted to question him under caution but did not, (see here) as he was a sitting Prime Minister.

Yesterday I asked if they would now question him under caution and it appears that they may have done.

This could be very interesting.

Many thanks to those on Politicalbetting.com for highlighting the news, Iain Dale also has this whilst Guido has this.

For more on Cash for Peerages see here.

Update 13:04

According to Radio 4's World at One Tony Blair was not questioned under caution.

Update 15:53

Apparently the questioning happened 3 weeks ago, but the news was not released until today.

Good news management?

I wonder if they will question him under caution?

So Tony Blair has gone

And boy am I pleased.

It was quite correct for David Cameron to be complimentary to Tony Blair yesterday at Prime Ministers Questions. Love him or loath him Tony Blair was one of the best political communicators there has been in modern times. I was never convinced by his sincerity but all to many were.

He is quick witted, humorous and I have no doubt would make good company on a long journey.

He is gone now, as as David Milliband said, "people will be saying 'wouldn't it be great to have that Blair back because we can't stand that Gordon Brown."

And yes they will. I am so pleased Tony has gone because it will make the Conservative party's job of winning the next election a bit easier.

That said Gordon Brown is no walk over, he is a political operator of some skill, quote possibly one of the best. He can play all sorts of games and stymie internal opposition like no other, hence being elected unopposed. However he is nothing like as electable as Tony Blair and will not appeal to the general public as well.

I do wish Tony Blair well on his mission in the Middle East. Regrettably the best way of telling if an international envoy is making some progress is how many assassination attempts there are on them.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Tony Blair appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern

One of the interesting curiosities of the House of Commons is that an MP can't resign. Apparently that is due to a rule dating from 1623.

However, it seems that if an MP takes office for profit under the crown then he can no longer be an MP and so the seat becomes vacant.

So today Gordon Brown, The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed the Right Honourable Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern.

I wonder if he enjoyed signing that piece of paper?

If we double the spending on schools will our children learn more?

It appears to be the governments plan to raise spending on education to the same level as the independent sector.

I scratch my head when people talk like this. For a start, which part of the independent sector? Eaton? The average? Who knows what the target actually means.

The next problem is this, is this not the most facile target you have ever seen?

If I go out to buy a weeks shopping and spend £100, would my children be better fed if I spend £200?

The answer is, it depends. You can buy a given product at all sorts of prices. If I buy a box of corn flakes for £2 are they better than the one I brought for £1 last week.

This issue is really important because throwing money at a problem, and then being proud of it, is not the answer. Holland and Sweeden (along with most of the rest of the developed world) spend less than us on secondary education, but neither country has sink schools. Why? Because schools are easy to set up, and sink schools don't get parents sending their children there so improve or close.

Now will Tony Blair be questioned under caution?

Regular readers will remember that the word on the street was that Yates of the Yard did want Tony Blair questioned under caution, but decided mot to after they were sent strong signals that it would not be a good idea to do so to a sitting Prime Minister.

Well, he isn't anymore, and he is about to disappear to Jerusalem so I hope they question both him and Lord Levy before they are off!

Also Guido seems to think that Ms Courtney Coventry has been questioned again about what she or her husband may have been offered in the way of inducements to donate. (Please note she is not a suspect). I wrote this at the time the story broke as it was very funny!

Lord Davies of Grantham?

I heard Ed Balls on BBC Radio 4's Today program referring to Quentin Davies as Lord Davies of Grantham. This, after Quentin Davies has said he does not want a place in the House of Lords.

Was Ed mischief making or has Quentin got all the moral courage of Harriet Harman?