Volatility continues in the polls with the size of Labour's lead changing from poll to poll, in different directions.
The Latest poll in today's Sunday Mirror shows Labour on 39% (-1), the Conservatives on 33% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (-1). The poll was carried out by ICM and is directly comparable (changes shown compared to last Wednesday's Guardian poll) to a poll conducted only last week.
With this sort of volatility I can't see Gordon Brown calling a snap election, but then I never could. Further more I can't see him building a bigger lead either.
What is clear is that Brown is tactically trying to out manouver his opponents in the short term. Tactically this is working a bit, but what about the long term? Is it a strategic mistake? I think so. I can see his big tent blowing up in his face, with recriminations later on.
On Monday I listened to Lord Paddy Ashdown talk about Gordon Brown, and it is clear he does not care for him much. the clear implication was that he thinks Brown is a tactician not a strategist. I agree. However that may make him inclined to cut and run.
If Gordon Brown does go for an October election his majority will be cut.
Political betting also has this.
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