10p tax rate abolition: Will it be Gordon Brown's last stand?

Many people commented on the abolition of the 10 tax rate when it wasn't announced by Gordon Brown last year, but was hidden in the budget detail.

Many, including me, thought it was a case of robbing the poor to pay the rich. We still do. The finance bill which contained it passed without much revolt at the time because Labour MP's either were too scared of their soon to be new Supreme Leader or because they thought they could get away with it.

Well, the truth is coming home to roost now. That cut is unpopular. No one bar the most sycophantic minister will appear to defend it. The wagons are circled around Downing Street. There will be no giving in apparently.

The only problem is that up to 75 Labour MP's have smelt the coffee, and will rebel when an amendment is voted on for this years finance bill.

We have to be clear on this. It would be a huge smack in the face of this government and Gordon Brown in particular to lose a vote on a finance bill. It is the sort of thing you expect to bring down governments.

So if Gordon loses, will he call a general election or try hand over to Ed Balls who will guarantee a Conservative victory of massive proportions?

Who knows. I would not want to be in Labour now though.

The BBC has this.

African dockers have more balls than African Presidents: Official!

Well, it turns out that Durban dockers have refused to offload the cargo of ammunition bound for Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe.

They have shown principle and balls where no African President has, particularly Thabo Mbeki.

The High Court in Durban has also said that the ammunition can not be shipped across South Africa.

Those waiting for Thabo Mbeki to show either principles or courage have received medical advice that holding their breath until he shows either will be fatal.

The BBC has this.

Gwyneth Dunwoody died yesterday

Now, here was a parliamentarian whom all ought to respect. A fighter, a battler and someone who would not be intimidated.

Parliament will miss her even if the whips don't.

May she rest in peace.

The BBC has this, wikipedia has this.

Gwyneth Dunwoody was MP for Crewe and Nantwich. I suspect they will sorely miss her also.

The ridiculous harassment of photographers

There is an interesting article on the BBC website about the harassment of photographers. Apparently in one case an amateur photographer was asked for "his licence" and pointing out he did not need one did not help. A police officer took him down a side street and made him wipe his camera.

This is all bizarre because you can, and are entitle to, take any picture you want of something in a public place (barring some defence establishments) including people. What is more that also extends to taking picture of things that can be seen from a public space, so if you are driving down the road and see an extraordinary garden, you can stop and photograph it from the road or pavement without requiring permission.

Mind you that is not the first time I have heard of over zealous police not knowing what the law is in a particular circumstance.

For example a police officer thought that a learner driver could drive on his own because he had a full class H licence. Another who demanded to see the MOT on a JCB, which does not require one so you can't get one and so on.

I like to take photographs, and if I were stopped, and told I could not, I would tell them where to get off.

So are we in for more exam chaos?

It seems the managing director of Edexcel, Jerry Jarvis has expressed some concerns over the preparations for the new diploma system which is due to start in September, in this article in the Guardian.

Apparently the IT system that it relies on has not as yet been fully tested, and teachers have received limited training. Also it seems the establishments which are to teach them have not as yet got the guidance they need on how to teach them.

On the other hand we have had Mike Tomlinson, the former inspector of schools, and the schools minister have been on the radio saying that all is well. Firstly they say that the scheme is small, not across the whole country. Colleges who are to teach them have been vetted and teachers have been organised into self help groups.

Well, it is difficult to tell what is right. We will only know it two years time though once people start sitting exams. Experimenting in this way with children's education does concern me though.

The BBC also has this.

Bank of England to leave interest rates as they are

Well, the Bank of England will no doubt actually cut its base rate, but this will have no effect on the real world where interest rates will remain unaffected.

The problem is that no one wants to lend our banks money unless they get paid well for it. That means money costs more. Unless the Bank of England is going to lend money on a serious scale (which I do not think it should) then it can't actually affect the real interest rates that much.

We are caught in an asset bubble on the way down. We will all feel a bit of pain I am afraid. I just hope it is not too much.

Zimbabwe Elections results miscounted: Official!

A Zanu PF spokesman, who did not wish to be named has made issued a statement:

The election results have been miscounted by the Electoral Commission of Zimbabwe. They did not realise that each vote for Zanu PF should be cherished and loved, and more importantly counted many times. We have invited the electoral commission to a secret location so that they can correct their error without being held up to public ridicule.

We do however expect the recount to take some time as some fingers of the electoral commission staff were accidentally injured whilst explaining their error to them.

We thank the people Zimbabwe for their patience and the results will be available as soon as they have been cooked enough recounted.

The BBC, on the other hand, has this.

Food riot shocker!

The Guardian reports food riots.

This is due to sharp rises in food prices.

Fair enough.

However much land has been taken out of food production in places like Africa because there is no money competing against American and European subsidised food dumping.

With a bit of luck these poor farmers can now make a dollar or two growing food again, thereby lifting people out of poverty.

House Price Slump Shocker! Cut interest rates now! Don't panic!

There has been a 2.5% drop in house prices, according to the Halifax since last month. This is not good new for people who bought houses last month. However it is better news for first time buyers.

Thing is times are tough. For years people, like me, have been saying that house prices are out of control and that will cause a problem, for first time buyers if no one else. We have also been saying that there is a problem with the way the economy has grown on debt alone.

The banks (or rather the mortgage lenders) are saying "cut interest rates now!".

I would love to think that would help, it would if the money that the banks needed to borrow was lent by British savers. The problem is that with the lowest savings ratio for nearly 50 years, the banks are borrowing money from overseas, sovereign wealth funds, and the like. They see no need to pay attention to our central bank rates and will demand, and incidentally get, what ever interest rate they like. After all they could invest their money somewhere where property prices are on the up.

Gordon Brown says "Don't panic!"

He is right in that, after all there will be a Conservative government along in a while, who will sort out the massive mess an ignorant Labour government has created.

Diana Inquest verdict in: What was the point?

Well, the short answer is that the point is that anyone who dies like this is entitled to an inquest, and up until now there has not been one.

That said apart from that there was no point. Clearly the only thing that would have satisfied some (I will not mention any names like Mohamed) would only have been happy had the Duke of Edinburgh been dragged from the court and stoned to death in the street.

For a number of reasons that was never going to happen.

That said there still will be conspiracy theories because they don't require evidence, just rumour.

The BBC has lots, here here and here for example.

That said you do wonder what the Daily Diana Express is going to write about next week!

Robert Mugabe: Going, going, gone?

News is leaking out of Zimbabwe that Zanu PF and Robert Mugabe are in negotiations about his retirement.

The US State department predicts a statement shortly.

Good news I'd say.

That said, I do hope Morgan Tsvangirai does not make Mugabe's mistakes.

The BBC has this.

Labour's Immigration case destroyed?

Todays papers carry news of a report due to be published later today from the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which seems to attack Labour's case for the mass immigration we have had in the last 11 years.

Needless to say the Guardian has an article which is more positive for immigration than the article in the Daily Mail, whilst the Times seems to find some kind of middle ground.

The bullet points are these:

• The £6 billion a year to the economy measure is irrelevant.
• People already here who are low earners are under pressure.
  
• Those who benefit are employers, immigrants and the higher paid.

They recommend a limit on non EU immigration to reduce net immigration.

The thing is I can't see that this tells us anything new. Still it does make it harder for Labour to ignore

So who has the balls to tell Mugabe he has lost?

It appears the big hold up in announcing the results of the presidential election in Zimbabwe is that no one has the balls to tell Robert Mugabe he has lost, whilst he appears not to have the power to get anyone to announce he has won.

Well, there seem to be two ways to solve this problem.

1. Someone go tell Morgan Tsvangirai he has one, and his first job is to tell Robert.
2. Give me Roberts mobile, and I will tell him what a loser he is*.

*I may be unkind when doing so, and am not in a position to promise not to laugh. A lot.

The BBC has this.

NUT vote against the Army!

But who cares? Did anyone ask this bunch if ignorant people, who could not teach their way out of a paper bag what they thought?

No.

So who cares?

I don't.

The NUT are an anachronism in much the same way as Arthur Scargill's NUM was. Useless and pointless, devoid of thought. Where they differ if course is that at one time the NUM had relevance, the NUT never have.

Iain Dale has this, the BBC going overboard on positive coverage of the NUM has this, this, and this.

More dire news for Labour! 13% behind in a new ICM poll

According to a new poll in todays Guardian by ICM the Conservatives are 13 points ahead of Labour.

The Conservatives are on 42% (+2), Labour on 29% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats are on 21% (+1).

So it looks like firm swings to the Conservatives and Boris Johnson is ahead in the London Mayoral elections.

The only thing we Conservatives have to fear is complacency. That said we need to be fiscal Conservatives before tax cutting ones. The state of the public finances is horrific.

Politicalbetting has this whilst Iain Dale has this.

Conservatives 16% ahead in latest poll as Labour drop to an all time low!

There is a YouGov poll in tomorrows Sunday Times which has the Conservative party on 43% (+3), Labour on 27% (-6) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (No change). This is a good pol for us and terrible for Labour. It would give David Cameron a majority of 122 which is staggering.

There is also a poll by ICM in the News of the World which gives the Conservatives 40% (+3), Labour 31% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats 20% (-1). That would lead to hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party on 313 seats compared to 259 Labour.

Geraldine Ferraro stands down!

Well, I just heard it on ABC news.

So much for the cover the Clinton campaign has given. She should have been fired ages ago.

Barack Obama is only where he is because he is a black man!

According to Geraldine Ferraro, a senior member of Hilary Clinton's campaign team.

Geraldine stood as the VP candidate with Walter Mondale in 1984.

Upon getting some flack for these ridiculous remarks, she said that people were being racist because she was white.

Hilary Clinton has "regretted" the comments, but not fired her, and has sent people out to defend her. See this thread on politicalbetting.com and look at the MSN video for how well this is going down.

The bizarre thing is that it may be true that candidates who are not white males may well get where they are when they would not if they are white males. (Geraldine maintains he would not have got there if he was a black woman). However Barack Obama is one of the greatest orators I have heard speak, on a par with people like Michael Heseltine, maybe even above. In short he could turn up at Klu Kux Klan meeting and stand a good chance of getting a standing ovation.

There is no one in American politics, and possibly world wide politics today who is as good at inspiring people.

Barack Obama is where he is today despite being black. If he was white this contest would have been done and dusted months ago. He is simply the best public speaker of his age.

JFK was no Barack Obama. He is simply that good.

Bio Fuel duty set to rise by 20 per litre?

Alistair Darling gave the budget today, as expected.

His forecasts were somewhat more rosy than most independent commentators, and he did not do that much.

He did put up cigarettes, beer wine and spirits though, so the ferries are going to be busy.

The one thing he did not mention but is hidden away in the red book is the removal of the tax differential on bio fuels, worth something like 20p per litre, effective from 2010 where it will according to chapter 1, page 9, raise £550 million.

According to various other bits of the red book (See pages 7, 89, 95, and 107) this is all to encourage sustainable bio fuels, via the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation or RTFO. Hooray I hear you say! (Or not as the case may be). However the problem is there is no corresponding account of how much the RTFO will cost the treasury.

In short the government is either taking £550 million by ditching the tax differential on bio fuels, a very un green measure, or it is not accounting for the RTFO in which case the budget has got yet more dodgy figures in it.

Good eh?

A difficult budget

Alistair Darling will present his first budget today. We already know it is going to be a bit of a dogs breakfast, because of the hurriedly announced measures in the pre budget report to "shoot the Tory fox" have been found out. They neither shoot the Conservative foxes, nor do they answer the questions the Conservative policies proffered.

However, it goes deeper.

This budget will be the most difficult since 1997, when Labour came to power. It will in fact be worse than that and probably be the worst since 1991.

Labour inherited an economy in good shape, with good prospects, but has squandered that.

I have no doubt there will be rabbits from the hat, but once on the plate and examined there will not be much meat there. Instead expect the chancellor to dodge the golden rules by moving the goal posts.

What is the punishment for unauthorised reincarnation?

Some time ago, China passed a law which made it illegal for Tibetans to reincarnate without permission from the state.

This is of course bizarre on a number of different levels.

Firstly, a supposedly atheist country China, is in its laws, accepting religion. Secondly by laws, it seems it intends on controlling the supernatural.

However, you do have to wonder what the Chinese government proposes to do with offenders.

Imprisonment?

The death penalty?

And if the death penalty, what do you do with repeat offenders?

Re offending not normally a problem you have when the penalty is death, but in the case of reincarnation, it clearly could be.

The Chinese are of course nuts. They can't control the people of Tibet because the do not want to be controlled. China is in fact an imperialist power just like Russia occupying lands that are not theirs gained by conquest and held by force, unlike the British Empire which has relinquished all land gained by force where it is not held by consent*.

*Diego Garcia excepted as a Labour government sold its people down the river handing the land over to the USA for a military base and therefore not holding that land by consent. In all other territories, the land is held by the consent of those who live there.

Northern Rock to be nationalised!

The Northern Wreck is to be nationalised. Apparently the two bids left on the table, by Richard Branson's Virgin group and the management did not guarantee enough of our tax payers money.

This does rather beg the question though, why did we pour such a large amount of money into a bottomless pit in the first place and why did Gordon Brown remove the power the Bank of England hand to restructure a failing bank quickly as it did do to Johnson Matthey Bank. Labour complained at the time, but the action was swift and effective. (See here).

So now we are into the Northern Rock for at least £60 billion.

Labour isn't working.

The BBC has this.

Mitt Romney endorses John McCain!

Mitt Romney has not only backed Senator John McCain, but he has asked his delegates to vote for him. If they do, the race is over. John McCain has won.

This will also help John McCain get more votes.

Meanwhile Hilary Clinton is still trying to stab Barrack Obama in the back, the front, in fact anywhere she can get him but it isn't working. All it is doing is helping John McCain.

The Strong arm of the Lawyer!

I like amusing headlines. This one appears half way down this BBC article about a lawyer who's husband had just been convicted and jailed on drug offences.

The lawyer went up to the female prosecutor and "shook her hand" so hard that she is being prosecuted for assault.

Rowan Williams: You know when you have said the wrong thing!

Rowan Williams is still being attacked on the front pages today, for example there is this in the Times.

I have not commented on this for two reasons. Firstly I have been busy, and secondly I am not sure what he actually said. What is more I doubt the people who are shouting the loudest know what he said either. Politics doesn't work like that. You say something then people comment on either what they would have liked you to have said or what they think you have said, whilst putting the worst interpretation on it.

Reminds me of the the story of the man who did many great things but is only remembered for what he did with a goat.

Sorry about the lack of posts, I am back to dealing with things.

Sorry about the lack of posts, I am back to dealing with things. In particular things of a legal and litigious nature.

Rudy Giuliani endorses John McCain

I forgot to mention it. I suspected he would and he has! So there!

Good.

John McCain is the only sensible candidate for President of the United States of America.

I also note that Rudy Giuliani's endorsement had warm words, was delivered with John McCain, and was in the Reagan Library.

The BBC has this.

Arnold Swarchenegger backs John McCain!

Republican Governor of California, Arnold Swarchenegger has endorsed John McCain!

It has to be said this looks like a band wagon rolling!

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney appears, apparently from the CNN debate to believe that Hezbollah are somewhere in Iraq. What a jerk!

Google has this.

Derek Conway to stand down as a Conservative MP

Iain Dale has his full statement here.

Derek Conway is the MP for Bexley and Old Sidcup. David Cameron withdrew the whip from him yesterday.

What this shows is that David Cameron can act decisively when there is sleaze about. Gordon Brown on the other hand can't.

This is a sad end to a political career, but then politicians have to learn that our money has to be accounted for.

The BBC has this.

Senator John McCain wins Florida

Considering he was written off 3 or so months ago Senator John McCain has had a stunning comeback. He has won Florida where Rudy Giuliani had been campaigning and spending lots of money. Guiliani came in behind both John McCain and Mitt Romney. It looks highly likely that Rudy Guiliani will bow out of the race later today and some think he will endorse John McCain.

With most votes counted the results are as follows:

John McCain: 36%
Mitt Romney: 31%
Rudy Giuliani: 15%
Mike Huckabee: 13%
Ron Paul: 3%

The BBC has this.

Cameron withdraws whip from Derek Conway

It seems that David Cameron has withdrawn the whip from Derek Conway. This is after it was revealed that not only had Freddie worked for him during his time at university, but that also his other son Henry had as well.

There appears to have been no evidence of any work at all being done by Freddie. What is more Freddie did not even know who his fathers office secretary was. Surely there would have to have been some contact between Freddie Conway and his fathers office?

Anyway, David Cameron has now acted decisively. It is a shame that Gordon Brown does not.

The BBC has this on the fact that Derek Conway has been reported to the police.

So what of Derek Conway?

Derek Conway has been hauled up before the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee, not because he hired his son, Freddie as a researcher, or that he was a full time student at Newcastle University, but because there is no record of him doing anything like enough work to justify the amount of time he was paid for.

To be fair, it could be just a case of appalling record keeping on Derek's part,
but as a taxpayer, I expect my taxes to be accounted for, and in this case this has not happened.

David Cameron has not withdrawn the whip from Derek Conway as he has been punished, and apologised to the House of Commons.

Fair enough, just about, had it ended there, but alas it has not. It turns out that Derek's older son, Henry had a similar arrangement, but only whilst he was at university. At this point one has to move on from thinking things are a little unfortunate to politically untenable.

According to this article from the Daily Mail, (which broke the Henry story)
David Cameron would not withdraw the whip for the Freddie offence but would have sacked him from the front bench. Things would be different if it was more serious. It is now.

Oh, and that is 1,000 posts on my blog!

Alan Johnson denies wrong doing

Alan Johnson has got himself into a spot of bother over "illegal" donations.

Apparently he received a donation of £3,334 form a Labour party member, registered to vote in this country. He accepted same. It now turns out that the donation did not come from one Waseem Siddiqui, but his brother Ahmed Yar Mohammed who is treasurer of the Croydon Labour party.

Clearly this is wrong. Donations should not be made in this way. We all know this is exactly the same thing that happened over the David Abrahams affair.

But.. What is a campaign team supposed to do? They checked that Waseem was entitled to donate, even that he was a member of the Labour party. What more are they supposed to do? This does not appear to be like the Abrahams situation in that no one is claiming (yet) that someone in Alan Johnson's campaign knew the actual source of the money. So I can't see anything wrong with what Alan Johnson has done.

On the other hand Ahmed Yar Mohammed has clearly set out to avoid and breach the law, so should be expelled from the Labour party, and investigated.

The BBC has this.

So is Peter Hain just another brick in the wall?

Because now he has resigned that will inevitably up the pressure on Harriet Harman and Wendy Alexander. Possibly even more people.

The mood in Labour must be quite bleak at the moment as the drip drip of bad news stories continues day after day.

Peter Hain resigns as his donations are referred to the police!

Peter Hain has resigned as Work and Pensions Secretary after the Electoral Commission referred his donations to the Metropolitan Police.

About time too. Had someone who had failed to notify the DWP of a change in their circumstances over a benefits payment said "Sorry I was too busy" they would have asked them to tell someone who gives a damn.

Peter Hain will apparently now work to clear his name. Well I am not sure what he means by that. He seems not to have been accused of corruption but breaking the law through incompetence.

The BBC has this.

It is necessary to stage public sector pay awards!

yes, according to our dear leader, Gordon, for it is he, it is necessary to stage public sector pay awards so as not to fuel inflation*!

*Of course this does not apply to those public sector workers who can strike who's unions donate money to the Labour party who get their settlement in full, like the teachers and firemen. I mean, who needs nurses and the police? Sheesh!

The BBC has this.

Inflation beating Council Tax Rise!

Yes citizens of this great socialist republic, rejoice, for whilst it is not possible to have inflation busting pay rises, the Government of Gordon Brown is pleased, nay honoured to announce that it can produce an inflation busting council tax rise!

Meanwhile all us poor downtrodden tax, fuel, food and general bill payers have to work out how to pay for this largess.

Thanks Gordon.

The BBC has this.

The Fed slashes interest rates by 3/4% to 3.5%

The United States Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates not by 1/4 or 1/5 a percent by by 3/4. This is to send a clear signal to everyone.

We will have to see what effect it will have on the Dow as the markets open at 2PM. (those lazy Americans, not getting up until the afternoon!).

With a bit of luck this will stave off disaster and lead to a bit of a rally on other markets.

The BBC has this.

FTSE 100 Bounces off the floor!

After yesterdays drubbing on the stock market the FTSE 100 dropped 400 points on opening this morning only to bounce right back off the floor.

Lets all hope people are calm in the markets and not just running around like headless chickens.

The BBC has this.

Financial Meltdown Continues!

Stock market financial meltdown continues on the worlds financial markets.

Yesterday was, bad, today does not look much better. We are all apparently worried by a recession in the United States of America, where markets are closed. George Bush has announced a series of measures to boost markets, which other market watchers have not been impressed by.

What we are seeing is headless chicken syndrome. The same people who bought into low yielding stocks are running away from them in the same manner.

That said there are underlying problems in both the US and UK economies, mostly due to house price inflation not being controlled. Where there is a silly boom there will always be a bust.

The BBC has this.

Has Obama beaten Clinton in Nevada?

The reason why I ask this daft question is that the process in Nevada is a Caucus not a vote, and it is the state delegates that count. Currently Obama is ahead!

You could not make this up!

John McCain walks South Carolina

At this stage in the evening it looks like a cakewalk for Senator John McCain in South Carolina, and what is more it looks like a decisive victory.

Fred Thompson is looking a tad lame and Mike Huckabee is is severely wounded. Rudy Giuliani has not as yet had a primary where he has bothered to campaign. He may well have left it too late.

MOD data loss: Three questions need to be asked

The MOD has lost a laptop with the records of 600,000 recruits on it. This is ridiculous. Three questions need to be asked.

1. What sort of cretin allows someone to put such data on any laptop?
2. What sort of cretin leaves said laptop in a car overnight?
3. When are the two separate cretins going to be sacked?

This data loss includes bank details of some as well. There is a very lax attitude to data protection about. People need to be punished or else no one will take it seriously.

There is no need nor justification for that information ever leaving the building in the first place, and if the person who's laptop it was really needed access from outside of the building there are several secure ways to allow it.

There is never any need to leave laptops, or any other valuables in a car. You can always take them with you.

The BBC has this.

Coward the Hero!

Get used to headlines like that, I suspect they will magically appear in tomorrow's papers, for John Coward, the co pilot of BA038 was the one who landed the plane after a loss of power.

From news reports the plane lost power at 600 feet. That must have been fun for the pilots. There would have been little time to react, and crucially no room for error. The plane would have had to take a steeper decent to maintain speed, hence landing harder than normal and short of the runway.

The flight crew and emergency services excelled themselves, we would expect nothing less. Then the passengers were kept hanging around with no refreshments for hours by petty bureaucrats who were apparently very unhelpful. With regret, again I would expect nothing less.

The BBC has this on the co-pilot, this on the report, and this on how passengers were let down afterwards.

Well, it looks like Mitt Romney has won Michigan

Which I have to say is a bit disappointing for me, I was hoping Senator John McCain could use that as a bounce to pick up momentum.

The Republican race looks very wide open now.

Peter Hain: The Minister for Incompetence!

Well, the Daily Mail has made much of Gordon Brown's comments on Peter Hain, saying that his failure is one of incompetence rather than corruption.

What concerns me though is Peter Hain's apparent attitude that he was to busy to comply with the law.

Could a benefit claimant who had got work but not quite done the paperwork after wards get off? No Ifs, No Buts, could they?

Nuff said. Peter Hain can not run that department. It would be one rule for him and another for his "clients".

Teachers pay rise: Will it anger the Police?

I see Ed Balls has gone and given the teachers a 2.45% pay award for this year to be followed by two further annual rises of 2.3%. This is of course well above what the government tell us inflation is whilst being well below what inflation actually is.

However the problem is that other public sector workers, for example the police, who have been awarded over 2% by their pay board but had it cut to 1.9% by the alleged Secretary of State for the Home Office, Jacqui Smith. Of course they can't go on strike, and their union does not donate money to Labour.

So how will that make the police feel? Not good I expect.

The BBC has this.

Conflating party funding issues

I note that party funding issues are being conflated.

We had George Osbourne's lack of double reporting over his office expenses, the funds declared to the Electoral commission, but not the Register of Members Interests, and now we have David Cameron's flights, declared to the register of members interests, but not the electoral commission. There may be a legal issue with the latter, I can't comment, but they are totally different to Peter Hain's affair.

Those deluded enough to support his cause make out, despite the evidence, that he went to the electoral commission as soon as the funding issues were uncovered, and in essence he brought the issue into the public domain.

The fact is that these admissions were beaten out of Peter Hain's campaign team by Guido who kept on asking awkward questions which then led Peter Hain to pop along to the electoral commission. That is entirely different from reporting a donation once, rather than twice.

So will John McCain win in Michigan?

Well,that is the question. Currently in the national opinion polls, John McCain is well ahead of all his rivals but still strapped for cash. Winning in Michigan, and knocking out Mitt Romney will help.

I certainly hope he does, as my money is on McCain, but I also back him as he seems to be the only candidate for either party who is not a certifiable loon.

As an example, Hilary Clinton, (and all the Democrats) seem to want to cut and run from Iraq, despite the fact that it seems to be just about coming good now, and that you should not run away from what you have broken.

Barrack Obama on the other hand has said that he will go after the Taleban in Pakistan if they are not dealt with. That is a threat to effectively invade an ally and nuclear power all rolled into one. Brilliant! Not!

The Democrats are also holding a sort of primary in Michigan, but against party rules, so who wins there is not important.

I can't believe Peter Hain is hanging on!

No, seriously I can't. After all the revelations we heard in the Sunday Times that even his aids said he should go, and today the Telegraph will run a story saying that Gordon Brown is coming under pressure to sack him!

Its not hard. he runs the "No Ifs, no Buts" department, yet clearly can't control a small campaign team. What a joke.

What is also laughable is that some Labour apparatchiks are trying to equate this with George Osbourne declaring all his donations to the electoral commission and following the as it now appears wrong advice of the Parliamentary authorities in not registering the same with the register of members interests. There is no comparison.

The fact is that Peter Hain has demonstrated that he can't run a small operation, let alone one the size and with the budget of the Department of Work and Pensions.


Mind you, it is clear why he is hanging on, he is one of the domino's that if he fell would lead to the fall of Harriet Harman and Wendy Alexander.

The BBC has this and this, whilst Guido has this, this and this.

Peter Hain hangs on by his fingertips!

Its seems Peter Hain has no shame, and is hanging on to his job!

How are we supposed to take anyone seriously as head of the DWP, responsible for prosecuting people for benefit fraud, under section 112 of the 1992 Administration of Social Security Act, where to knowingly give false information is an offence yet can't get the hang if his own strict liability for reporting donations!

I mean we are talking about over £100,000!

Can anyone take him seriously when he squarely dodges his reporting responsibilities?

The BBC has this.

Is Peter Hain about to resign?

From early this morning I have been hearing reports that Peter Hain, AKA Hain the vain was about to make a statement over the funding of his deputy leadership campaign. Despite the reports saying the statement was "due shortly", it has not as yet happened.

Why the delay? Is he trying to secure some support so that he does not have to resign but having trouble doing so?

Ah well, we will find out "shortly" I suppose, and I seriously expect him to have resigned by the end of today.

The BBC has this.

So how did Nick Clegg get on at his first PMQs?

Well, in the House of Commons, fine is the answer. Workmanlike, easy introduction to the bear pit that is Prime Ministers Questions. It would be harsh in the extreme to expect him to shine, as he only gets two questions after all.

Overall though, his first outing was disappointing because it got not air time, at least not on TV. That is a shame really as that is more the media than anything else, but there you go.

Still, looking on the bright side, at least he did not start by presenting an open goal like Ming Campbell did!

The BBC has this.

Hilary Clinton's shock win in New Hampshire

Senator Hilary Clinton has won in New Hampshire, in what is a big shock as it runs totally counter to what the polls seemed to be saying. That certainly will give her momentum.

Now all the Republicans need to do is to nominate their winner in New Hampshire, Senator John McCain and they will win a third term on the trott. I don't think any other Republican can do it.

The BBC has this.

McCain and Obama to win New Hampshire

Well, that is a prediction, based in part on the polls which are definately looking that way but also having a feeling for the ground covered and momentum built so far.

Barrack Obama has the momentum in the Democratic race, and not only that seems to be able to communicate with people in a way that Hillary Clinton just can't. I mean, if it was a choice between the two, who would you vote for?

On the other hand Senator John McCain has won New Hampshire before and what is more, being a north eastern state, seems to be talking much more their language than Mike Huckabee does.

Polls seem to indicate that Mitt Romney will come something like second. I have to wonder about Mitt. He seems to excel at irritating all his opponents at the same time which is not a good trait.

One thing is sure, Mike Huckabee will not come first for the Republicans in New Hampshire, though. I don't think he will get the nomination either, but losing in New Hampshire will not kill him off, but losing for Mitt Romney, or worse still coming third may kill him off.

For Hillary Clinton she has been set up for a fall. So many people are saying she is finished if she does not win New Hampshire. Personally I think she is finished anyway, but a good second place could just keep her in. A poor second or, worse still a second third place, with Senator Barrack Obama winning would mean that the momentum would be decidedly with Obama, along with the financial support. It would be so hard for her to carry on.

Oil at $100 a barrel

It seems some people are predicting economic gloom and doom as oil has hit $100 a barrel.

There are lots of reasons to be economically gloomy, but I don't think the price of oil is one of them. It is true that not so long ago oil was $10 a barrel but that was very very low. $100 is also high, but economic growth has not stalled as prices have risen to that level so there is no reason to assume that it will slow now.

The only problem is that crossing the $100 mark will hurt confidence, which will slow spending creating a slow in growth where none would have happened, which is a bit odd as the price hike seems to have been created by speculators leaving the dollar and moving their money into oil and gold and a little bit of trouble in Nigeria.

The Times has this, whilst the FT has this.

Happy New Year!

I wish everyone a happy new year.

Alas, it does not look that happy a new year in either Pakistan or Kenya, but we can hope.

Jack Dromey denies all knowledge of Kenyan count fixing scam!

In a statement Jack Dromey didn't make, he didn't say:

I was not involved in any vote or count fixing and deny all knowledge of any wrongdoing·

Political insiders from all parties chimed in with their support. One said that as far as he could tell, it was a surprise that Jack could even remember his name in the morning let alone any part he may, or indeed may not have played in any conspiracy which of course Jack can't remember.

Jack does need regular reminding that he is in fact Labour party treasurer, though by the time this has sunk in, it is normally his bedtime.

Mwai Kibaki denies vote rigging!

Kenya's president, who was reelected today denied vote rigging in the presidential elections. In a statement he didn't make he didn't say:

The allegations of vote rigging are a dangerous slur put about by imperialist lackeys. I deny totally the allegation that we rigged the vote. That would be too much like hard work. We rigged the count instead, it's so much easier to do, and you need to pay fewer people to do it. What do these people think we are? Stupid?

Meanwhile Raila Odinga, the person who would have won had the electoral commission of Kenya not been up to a bit of cooking is complaining bitterly.

The BBC has this.

Benazir Bhutto reported dead after blast in Rawalpindi

There was a bomb explosion at an election rally held by the Pakistan Peoples Party, after Benazir Bhutto had finished addressing the rally.

Reports are confused, some saying she was injured, some saying critically and some now reporting her dead.

This is not a good day for Pakistan. It is difficult to predict what will happen, but what ever happens next is not going to be pleasant.

I expect riots, possibly directed at perceived extremists.

The BBC has this.

Donorgate: Peter Watts to be charged

According to the front page headline of the Daily Telegraph today, Peter Watts, former General Secretary of the Labour party is to be charged over donorgate.

The interesting thing will be where else this goes, after all we know that this arrangement has been in place for years so others must have known it and indeed set it up.

Not good news for Gordon Brown.

For more on donrogate see here.

Merry Christmas to every one!

I just thought I would wish everyone a merry Christmas, or for those of other religions, happy Eid, Hanuka and Divali (if they are at the right time of year).

For all the members of the secular society who think we should either not celebrate at all, or be celebrating "winterval" I say bah humbug!

Did Chris Huhne really win the Liberal Democrat leadership?

In a bizarre twist of events, Atticus in the Times has a snippet about the vagaries of the Christmas post winning Nick Clegg the leadership due to late ballots. He says;

The deadline for party members to have sent in their ballot papers was Saturday, December 15. But officials arrived the following Monday to find a pile of more than 1,000 late entries, according to insiders at party headquarters.

Lord Rennard, the party’s chief executive, asked Clegg and his rival, Chris Huhne, whether they wanted to include the new ballot papers. But the Clegg camp said no – after all, rules is rules – and he went on to win by 511 votes to become the party’s third leader in less than two years.

Rules may be rules, but who decided to hold a postal ballot this close to Christmas?

As Atticus continues:

It’s possible, of course, that every one of the late entries was a vote for Clegg. But it’s widely thought that Huhne was catching up.

Which is the way I sensed things. And to think that Jesus' birthday may have won Clegg the leadership and he doesn't even believe in God! Sheesh!

On a more serious note, this is a cockup of Scottish, if not Floridian proportions, drawing the whole ballot into question for the bitter for now, and for the doubters (and when things get tough, and they always do for a while, there will be doubters) later. It will make things much harder for Nick Clegg.

However Atticus finishes:

“Both camps have decided on a truce and have agreed not to mention this,” said a party source.

Well I am so pleased someone has!

Hat Tip to UKPaul on Politicalbetting.com.

Madeline McCann, a made up story...

What follows is a completely made up story explaining the disappearance of Madeline McCann. That said, it seems no more made up that some of what has appeared in the press so here goes...

A made up McCanns Story


Maddy was different. Maddys parents Kate and Gerry did not know why she was different but they certainly felt that she had changed. Maddys personality seemed to blow hot and cold for no reason, but this was not always just sometimes. There was also the fact that Maddy would seem to have good physical co-ordination one moment and poor physical co-ordination the next.


Gerry and Kate were both doctors. Gerry was a consultant cardiologist and Kate a GP. They applied there collective knowledge to try and see if there was a medical explanation. Kate took blood and urine samples and sent them for analysis. This was not done under Maddy’s name but under a made up name of Penelope. Both Gerry and Kate wanted privacy for their sick child. There was also the mater of doctors administering to their own children which is frowned upon.

The tests of the blood and urine samples came back. They provided no answers. More tests were carried out but again no answers were found. There were not even any clues.

Kate and Gerry discussed how they might be able to find out more information while still maintaining some privacy. They decided to ask some of their medical friends for help.

These were close friends. People they had known for a long time, they were good people and they could be trusted. The McCanns had been on holidays with a lot of them at one time or another. As the friends had got older these holidays turned into family affairs with children.

They invited the select group of friends for a BBQ. The friends were told of the issue with Maddy and of the McCanns pain caused by the suffering that they thought Maddy may be going through.

At the BBQ Maddy looked well. Maddy was acting just like any normal child would act. This was typical of Maddy and of her condition. She could exhibit no symptoms for days and then suddenly at the drop of a hat act strange for a day only to return to normal afterwards.

The friends discussed the problem. They all looked at the file that the McCanns had started on Maddys condition. The friends then chatted to Maddy herself. They all resolved to look into the problem. To read books, to talk to others, to provide support.

It was a close friend Bill who discovered what the problem was. On a trip to a conference in the USA Bill came across another doctor who had come across something similar. The diagnosis was that Maddy had picked up a bug eating bad pork while on holiday to Thailand. This bug had worked its way through Maddys body. This bug would normally only infect the organs such as the liver but in this instance had reached the brain. The prognosis was not good. They thought that they had stopped the bug growing but Maddy seemed to be getting worse. It was very possible that due to the bug being in the brain that the damage was irreversible. It was also possible that it could get very much worse too.


Bill was a close friend of Kate and Gerry. Bill was a GP and worked with Kate. Bill knew that Maddy would deteriorate quickly. The deterioration would be painful to both Maddy and to her parents. In discussion with Kate and Gerry it was clear that they appreciated this outcome. It was a very difficult situation to find themselves in. Both very good doctors yet unable to heal their own daughter.

Gerry and Kate were best buddies, partners, lovers as well as being man and wife. However the strain of Maddy’s illness was causing a strain on their relationship. It was not easy for the McCanns to communicate each others pain in a way that was inclusive. They were finding that it was difficult to share the pain, they were each being selfish over their own feelings towards their lovely child. This made their feeling exclusive to them and not inclusive as a family.

This is where Bill helped. Maddy was not his child but Kate and Gerry were his friends. Bill could sympathise with both allowing each of them to be selfish with him about their own feelings towards and her illness. Maddy. This was very much so with Kate with whom Bill had become a bit too fond of.

This fondness that Bill had for Kate, led bill to try and find solutions to Maddy’s illness. It was Bill who had found out the reasons for Maddy’s illness. Bill however knew that there was no cure for Maddy’s illness. Maddy was going to die and die painfully. This pain was tearing Kate apart and this hurt Bill. Bill was very selfish about his pain and he did not like it.

One of Bills interests was in pain control. Although a GP he saw this an area that he would like to gain more knowledge in and perhaps as a GP specialise in it. Maddys had a brain problem and Bill knew that this would be a very difficult pain to try and control. Bill knew further that it would be even harder to control the pain felt by Gerry and Kate. Bill decided to concentrate his effort on the pain that Kate was feeling.

Kate’s pain caused Bill pain and Bill did not like pain. Bill could not pass that pain on and just wanted to stop it. Bill was now made selfish by Maddy’s illness.

Bill’s solution to this was radical. Bill had determined that Maddy had to die and die quickly. This would cause some pain to both Gerry and to Kate but would then pass.

Bill was now thinking about how he was going help Maddy die quickly. Bill was aware that Maddy could hang on for two years or she could die next week. Bill did not know but wanted to certainty to the end of his pain. So what to do?

Kate and Gerry were aware of Bills pain management skills. Although not a consultant in this field he knew a lot about it. Kate and Gerry were still very secretive and protective over Maddy and her illness.

Bill saw the opportunity of applying too high a dose of pain killer which would act as a lethal injection. It was a matter of just increasing the strength of the dose and lying to Kate about the strength of the dose. This opportunity would present itself at some point in the next few weeks. Applying too much pain killer to Maddy would help Bills pain go away and that is what Bill wanted more than anything else.

Bills opportunity turned up a couple of weeks later. Bill was at the McCanns home when he managed to switch a dose of pain killer to a more powerful one. Bill made sure that this was the dose that would be applied to Maddy that evening. Sure enough Bill’s strong dose of pain killer was applied lovingly by Kate to Maddy to help with the pain, only to kill her.

There was real pain now. Kate was screaming, Gerry was screaming. But Bill was not there to experience the pain. Bill was at home awaiting the news that he know would come.
Kate called Bill to tell him what had happened and to selfishly tell Bill of her feelings. Bill was now in pain, it was excruciating but Bill knew that it would pass. It would go away.

Family and friends turned up at the McCanns the next morning. Maddys body was still there and not in the hospital. Kate and Gerry were so sad that they had just stayed with Maddy.

These friends now started to take over. Bill in particular wanted to take over as he did not want to have Maddy‘s body examined by the coroner. Bill explained to the other friends there that the McCanns were now in a difficult situation. There professionalism has been compromised by them tendering and administering to their own child in secret. Their careers would be over and they would be thrown out of their profession. It was now important to try and help Gerry and Kate.

A plan was arrived at. The McCanns had been on holiday with a number of friends and their families. What if they were to all go on holiday again together to a country whose police force might not be quite so interested in a foreign couple who lose one of their children. They settled on Portugal.

The plan was for several families to go on holiday. One of the children from another family was to wear Maddy’s clothes and to go with Kate and Gerry through the airport. They would also take a lot of Maddy’s clothes with them and pack for Maddy. With the child playing Maddy and using Maddy’s passport it would appear as if Maddy had left the UK for a holiday abroad. The child would then just come back as herself to the UK.

Maddy’s body was taken to the hospital one evening before the holiday and incinerated in one of the hospital furnaces. It was something that one of the other friends could organise and then bring back the ashes for Kate and Gerry.

The McCanns with their friends had now to just inform the authorities that Maddy was now missing. They had lost a daughter and they knew that would never be found.

What follows is a media storm and the McCanns are at the centre of it.


This story was not made up by me, it is someone elses... but they could surely write some of the junk in the media.

More personal data "lost", this time in the NHS

More data has been lost, this time in the NHS.

This indicates a systematic disregard across government for our data. What is worse is that it infects some parts of the private sector as well.

It is clear that this government can't be trusted with out data.

ID cards must be dead in the water now, surely?

The BBC has this.

Gordon Brown as Popular as a rattle snake in a lucky dip: Official!

A poll by Yougov in today's Telegraph confirms what many have suspected. Gordon Brown is in fact as popular as a rattlesnake in a lucky dip. His personal approval ratings are at an all time low. 60% of people asked are dissatisfied with Gordon Brown, compared with 24% who think he is doing a good job.

To put that in perspective, those sorts of numbers saw Margaret Thatcher ditched and were John Major's ratings in 1997. It does not get much worse, and all this after 5 months in office. Impressive.

Meanwhile the voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 43% (NC) Labour on 31% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (+3). According to Anthony Wells swing calculator that would give the Conservatives a working majority of 68.

Sean Hoey acquitted of Omagh bombing

Sean Hoey has been acquitted of the infamous Omagh bomb.

Apparently the case against him has been built on "Low Copy Number" DNA which can take the minutest sample of DNA and "amplify" it to produce a profile.

There are obvious logical problems with this approach, not the least of which is how do you know that the sample obtained from a crime scene does not contain DNA from a number of sources?

LCN DNA may be useful for directing an investigation, but the Judge at the trial today, Mr Justice Weir did not seem impressed by it as he threw the whole case and gave damning criticism of the police investigation.

Lets be clear. DNA is no magic bullet, Low Copy Number DNA doubly so. No one should be convicted on the basis of such evidence alone.


The BBC has this.

Nick Clegg does not believe in God

God does not believe in Nick Clegg!

Sorry, couldn't resist :)

The BBC has this.

Bob Marshall Andrews on Gordon Brown

Apparently Bob Marshall Andrews has described Gordon Brown as having :

‘the jealousy of Othello, the indecision of Hamlet, the futile rage of Lear and, like Brutus, he goes to the wrong people for advice.’

For a one line character description that is fantastic!

Hat Tip to Kingbongo on politicalbetting.com.

Update 16:24

I see the original came from Michael White of the Guardian in his blog. It is a very funny line and finishes with:

"Thank God we got rid of the Macbeths."

Sluts, Faggots and the Professionally Offended

I have to say I was quite amused by Radio 1's decision to fade out the words "slut" and "faggot" from the Pogues hit "Fairy Tale of New York", with Kristy McColl because the words are apparently insulting (I find it shocking that insults should be insulting!) and offensive.

Sure enough, up pops Peter Tatchell, self appointed representative of the "gay" community (I hear he makes quite a lot of them cringe) to say just how offensive "faggot" is.

It seems to me that there is a group of people who seem to both get a kick out of, and possibly make money from being offended, hence my use of the term "Professionally Offended" as if they seem to think that is a profession. The rise of the professionally offended is not new though, Mary Whitehouse used to be their chief speaker, it is just what these people are being offended about that has changed. Miserable killjoys the lot of them.

Still, Radio 2 carried on with the full unedited version and Radio 1 backed down due to mass ridicule, whilst other gay people I say interviewed were non plused at being drawn into a silly debate on a song which did not offend them in the least.

What is crazy about all this is that not so long ago BBC Radio 1 would broadcast music inciting people to commit acts of violence, in part against the gay community, which regardless of its offence, is a criminal act under the 1986 Public Order act.

The BBC has this.

Nick Clegg scrapes Liberal Democrat Leadership

Nick Clegg has, I see just scrapped in as the new Liberal Democrat leader, by 20,988 votes to 20,477 for Chris Huhne.

I am little bit gutted as I had traded into quite a good betting position on Huhne, particularly by laying Clegg at very short odds, but I am more than pleased as a Conservative that they have elected Nick Clegg as he will not have anything like the media presence of either Vince Cable or Chris Huhne, as has been shown in the last few weeks by Nick Cleggs almost complete absence from TV.

The BBC has this.

Cancer latest: Sun gives and cures cancer!

In the latest study on cancer, this time lung cancer it has been found that exposure to sunlight produces vitamin D (which has been known for a long time) which in turn helps prevent and control lung cancer growth as well as possibly other cancers.

Excessive sunlight is also known to cause cancers as well, which just goes to show you can't win.

The BBC has this here.

A disaster a day keeps the voters away!

And today's disaster was announced by Ruth Kelly, the transport secretary who tells us that 3 million records of learner drivers has gone missing on a hard disk in the USA.

It is anyone's guess when this bunch of Muppet's learn the basic rules of data security.

The BBC has this.

Is there going to be a housing crash?

Probably not, but the Times reports today that house prices have fallen all over England, and sharply in London according to Rightmove.

The scary thing is that whilst some of these properties have fallen by as much as 6.8% in London in the last month, similar properties rose by 41% last year. I don't know what bothers me more, the fact that a house price correction will slow the economy or that the government is such a bunch of pratts that they would not see this problem coming.

Donorgate: Jane Hogarth and Courtney Coventry

Some will remember Jane Hogarth as the Labour fund raiser who was made redundant apparently in June 2006(See Guido here). She was it seems the go between for David Abrahams, possibly up to as far as the PM, as well as the person who dealt with Courtney Coventry and her husband John, who also style themselves as the Count and Countess of Rozel (tough I hasten to add, not to Labour).

I understand that a number of people wish to speak to Jane Hogarth, including the police, but it appears that she has gone missing. What is more, Labour claim they do not know where she is.

Since then Labour say that she has not been working for them. The only problem with this is lots of people think Labour are lying through their teeth, and according to my sources with good reason.

Jane Hogarth has been out soliciting donations for Labour. Sources tell me that she has definitely been in touch with Courtney Coventry and her husband in the last few months. What is more Jane is aware that Courtney is not a UK citizen. Jane does not know if either John or Courtney are registered to vote in the UK, and neither does Labour, because they have never asked. If there was a donation and they were not registered then that is a breach of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

It is interesting that the first priority of Labour's fund raisers is to get the cash and worry about the law second.

Conservatives get biggest poll share since 1992

In a poll for the Sunday Times, by Yougov the Conservatives have the biggest poll share since 1992, (just after the election) the biggest poll share Yougov have ever reported and their biggest lead in any poll for something like 20 years.

The Conservatives are on 45% (+2) Labour 32%(NC) and the Liberal Democrats on 14% (NC).

According to Anthony Wells election calculator that gives the following seat shares:

Conservatives 373
Labour 230
Liberal Democrats 18
Others 29

A Conservative majority of 96!

Having said all that it is a December poll, and we will have to see what other polls turn up. What is also interesting is that Labour tried a bit of a relaunch last week, with Ed Balls 10 year plan for children, massive off shore wind farms and welfare reform. The only problem is that they were too busy making mistakes for anyone to notice.

The poll results are available here in PDF format.

Are Blacks thick?

Or is it the IQ test fundamentalists?

This debate sort of reignited when the Nobel Laureate James Watson claimed that those of African origin were "less clever" than good honest white folks. (For example see the BBC here)

At the time this bugged me, but I said nothing. Now I am.

James Watson said what he did for good reasons, or at least, reasons that I could see someone could think were good. Studies show that Africans score lower in IQ tests than those of "European" stock, on average. What he neglected to mention was that some Asians score higher than white Europeans, but then perhaps that did not fit into the narrative settled into his mind.

I have now had the benefit of reading this article in the New Yorker, which I feel is instinctively right.

The problem that James Watson and the IQ test fundamentalist have failed to ask is what does IQ actually measure?

In principle it measures intelligence, but is based on the idea that the average IQ of a population is 100. Therefore it measures relative intelligence. As James Flynn has found (see article, or google for more) I.Q. has risen over time. Either our grandparents were retards or we are super intelligent, or I.Q. tests measure a way of thinking rather than base intelligence.

The problem with I.Q. tests is that retaking them makes you better at them. It certainly does in my experience. I also find that playing Su do ku on a regular basis not only exercises my brain but gives me a measure of how sharp I am on a particular day.

What I also find with I.Q. tests is that you get a good score by living in the same mindset as the person who wrote the test. Take this quote from the article as an example of what I mean.

The psychologist Michael Cole and some colleagues once gave members of the Kpelle tribe, in Liberia, a version of the WISC similarities test: they took a basket of food, tools, containers, and clothing and asked the tribesmen to sort them into appropriate categories. To the frustration of the researchers, the Kpelle chose functional pairings. They put a potato and a knife together because a knife is used to cut a potato. “A wise man could only do such-and-such,” they explained. Finally, the researchers asked, “How would a fool do it?” The tribesmen immediately re-sorted the items into the “right” categories. It can be argued that taxonomical categories are a developmental improvement—that is, that the Kpelle would be more likely to advance, technologically and scientifically, if they started to see the world that way. But to label them less intelligent than Westerners, on the basis of their performance on that test, is merely to state that they have different cognitive preferences and habits. And if I.Q. varies with habits of mind, which can be adopted or discarded in a generation, what, exactly, is all the fuss about?

The thing is that the brain is a muscle. Research shows, for example that London Taxi drivers have a larger hippocampus than the population norm in much the same way as pigeons do, and that area is associated with navigation. Gay men, it has been said have other brain differences. People who use their brains in particular ways have brain differences from the norm. Are we seriously to believe that people are born to be London taxi drivers? Or indeed anything else?

Fundamentally the issue is this: I.Q. tests measure intelligence in the way that the person writing the test thinks.

They are useful, but like all tests and measures only as useful as your understanding of the test or measure. Balsa is a hardwood. I kid you not. It ranges in density and strength from very very light and soft to remarkably heavy and dense as well, so how useful is the "hardwood" classification? Well it depends on how you use the measure and what you think it means.

To answer the question posed at the beginning of this article I think it is the I.Q. test fundamentalists who are thick, because they do not understand what it is they are measuring nor the limitations of their tests.

Hat tip to Socrates on Politicalbetting.com for the link to the New Yorker article.

Prime Ministers Questions, My thoughts so far.

I did not catch much of Cameron so I can't comment there, but I have to say that Vince Cable got the better of Gordon Brown, by firstly asking what, when Gordon is eating his Brussels sprouts, he would consider what the Labour governments biggest disaster of the year was?

Gordon Brown replied with some flim flam ending with a comment about the Liberal Democrat leadership and how Vince Cable could well be back there soon.

Vince replied that given Gordon Brown's own position he should not speculate on leadership bids!

The only problem for the Liberal Democrats is I have trouble seeing either Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne doing better than Vince Cable.

The BBC has this.

Update 14:23

The BBC also has this on Cable's killer punch!

Credit Crunch to hit consumers this Christmas

The Times reports today a severe tightening of consumer credit which will hit this Christmas, though a lot of consumers will not notice until after they have spent their money.

According to moneyexpert.com 5 million families have not paid off last Christmases debt either.

People who swap credit cards to keep charges down are likely to be in for a bot of a shock as they get turned down for new credit.

None of this makes good reading.

However what the article does not go into is the number of mortgages which were taken out on fixed rates for 3 years which are coming to the end of the fixed rate period. Those people are going to face real difficulties with a possible 50% sudden increase in mortgage repayments and few lenders keen on taking them on.

This is the demon of cheap credit coming home to roost. Many have accused people like me of being a doom monger when we expressed concern that the last 10 years of economic growth was built on borrowing. We now have to start paying that money back, and that will mean far less free money in the economy.

Labour 8% behind with Populus!

A poll conducted for the Times published today shows the Conservatives back in the lead. Last months Populus poll had Labour on 37%, the Conservatives on 36% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. At the time it was one poll that still provided some comfort for Labour.

Well no longer. Today's figures are Conservative 40% (+4) Labour 32% (-5) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (NC).

It is nice to see Populus have caught up. This is the best ever figure for the Conservative party since Populus started polling. What is clear is that the Conservative party has a clear lead, for the moment. Not good enough for a clear election victory but a lead that can be built upon.

According to Anthony Wells swing calculator that would give a hung parliament with the Conservatives on 320 seats, Labour on 269 and the Liberal Democrats on 30 with others on 31.

4 out of 5 of new jobs go to migrants?

That is the headline on the front of this mornings Daily Mail.

This harks back to the scandal in October when the Tan, Peter Hain also incidentally Secretary of State at the Department of Work and Pensions claimed that of the 2.1 million jobs he claimed had been created since 1997 only 800,000 had gone to migrants. This figure was found to be wrong and went up to 1.1 million and then 1.5 million whilst in turn the number of jobs claimed seems to have dropped to 1.7 million. Even the alleged Home Secretary Jacqui Smith managed to get embroiled in the scandal with her own dodgy figures.

David Davies has said this makes a mockery of "British jobs for British workers" as clearly this has not been the case, as well as being highly illegal.

Frank Field has called for eastern Europeans to be banned from working here. That is understandable, but wrong. You can't remove rights like that once given. However we do need to be much more careful in future.

The political issue here is this though. People will vote on the pound in their pocket at the next election, not the pound in someone else's. That is how they will decide how the economy looks. For all the claims of how the mass immigration of the last 10 years has helped the economy it has done little to make the average man or indeed woman in the street feel better off. Their wages are under more pressure whilst all their costs are rising, including council tax and the cost of housing.

Musa Qala falls to Afghan army forces

The Afghan army backed by NATO forces, particularly British and American, have retaken Musa Qala. Taleban forces took the town in February after the British withdrew having made a deal with local elders. That did not hold the Taleban back.

The Taleban melted away once it was clear that they were surrounded by superior forces.

The significant fact here is that the actual assault was led by Afghan forces. It is vital for Afghanistan's future that it has a battle ready and battle hardened army that has the confidence to operate in its territory against insurgents.

The BBC has this.

For more on Afghanistan see here.

Labour MP's on Drugs: Official!

There are strong indications that a few Labour MP's are using some serious drugs, possibly class A, and certainly hallucinogenic.

For evidence of this I cite this article by John Rentoul in yesterdays Independent on Sunday suggesting that some MP's may be plotting already to replace Gordon Brown with Ed Balls.

If Ed Balls is the answer, then those coming up with that answer are on serious drugs, and haven't got a clue what the question is.

John Darwin, missing canoeist charged

Is it just me or is this one of the most bizarre stories of the year.

For a start we have the missing man getting listed as dead after one year, which I understand requires the signature of a minister of the government, then we have the fact that about a year after his death he moved back home and stayed there for 3 years.

We have his wife selling up and moving to Panama some 6 weeks ago and both of his sons quiting their jobs at the same time, before apparently John Darwin surfaced.

There is much more to hear about this story but what I want to know is who is going to make the film?

The BBC has this.

How did they come up with 42 days?

You do have to wonder don't you. It used to be that people could only be held for 24 hours, then for terrorism it was extended to something like 2 days, then 7, 14 and then Tony Blair wanted 90. He got 28.

Now we have had Gordon Brown trying to look tough again, heavens knows why, we all know it is not true and extend it again.

Hints were dropped that 90 days was back on the agenda, despite there being no case that you could point to where 28 days was insufficient. Then 56 days was hinted at. Then Jacqui Smith, the Alleged Home Secretary, said she did not know how long it should be and did not want to get fixated with a number.

Now we have one. 42 days. Why? Why not 41 or 43? Well, OK 42 days is 6 weeks. But why 6 instead of 4? Or indeed 7,8,9 or 10?

The fact is they are just making this up. It is true that ACPO are officially in favour of it, but then ACPO gets its funding from the Home Office. However many have come out against it, for example the former Attorney General Lord Goldsmith, and the current head of the DPP.

They say that in the future there may be a need. Well in the future they may be a need for all sorts of things, on the other hand there may not. Why do we want to hand our enemies propaganda that they can use to bend young minds? You can bet your bottom dollar they will sell this as anti Muslim. How are we supposed to criticise other countries for human rights violations when we would rather forget our own liberties at the first sign of trouble, rather than taking a more thoughtful approach.

In short, its bonkers. I do hope it gets canned in the Commons. If not its up to the House of Lords to throw out this hideous piece of legislation.

More Labour Sleaze over Paul Myners?

This is beginning to stretch credibility. Just how can a government be so institutionally corrupt without the ability to hide it just a little bit?

Paul Myners was appointed to head the governments drive to get people to save for their pensions. Good idea. When appointed in July we were assured that he was just a businessman, no party connections, and oh no, no donations to any political party.

Hmmm.. Then last week on Question Time he laid in to David Cameron and George Osborn as "toffs" etc. You can make up the rest.

Well, it turns out that in May he donated to Gordon Brown's leadership campaign.

Obviously his position is way past untenable, but then so is whoever said he had not donated to a political party.

Why do they think they can get away with this sort of thing?

Bizarre.

The Independent has this.

hat tip to 'Me' on politicalbetting.com for the link.

Labour Lawyers organised Donorgate?

According to this shocking article in the Guardian today Labour Lawyers and officials were involved in setting up David Abrahams round about route of donating £650,000 pounds to Labour in clear violation of the spirit of the recently enacted Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

Later advice has of course shown that this practice is illegal.

We know that previous General Secretaries of the Labour party have denied all knowledge which does beg the question, who did not only know, but ordered this deception?

Just when you think this might blow over, it gets worse!

For more on Donorgate see here.

Labour Officials helped set up Abrahams secret donations

According to the Guardian tomorrow officials in the Labour party helped David Abrahams set up his secret donations, including working with Lawyers to set up covenants.

Its a bit of a shame they did get get advice on the legality of the scheme... ir perhaps they did?

More news later.

I forgot to add, labour are saying nothing. They are not even denying it.

For more on Donorgate see here.

Prime Ministers Questions should be interesting today!

I wonder how Gordon Brown will get on?

Update 12:43

I missed some of it but it was a bit dull.

Gordon Brown did get Vince Cable back for his joke last week with a line something like "I notice you are getting better at jokes than economics".

We will have to see how it plays in the news if at all.

Wendy Alexander: Emails will clear my name!

Well, no they won't. For a start you are the brother of Wee Dougie, and along with Ed Balls, his name is mud in the Labour party right now because they are both juvenile idiots seeming to have no political experience at all. However I digress.

Wendy Alexander, the soon to be ex leader of the Scottish Labour party, (but please note, hanging on long enough to do them serious damage) claims email correspondence will clear her name for she laughably claims she asked questions.

No they won't.

There are only two relevant questions to ask, and they are of the donor, and indeed the donee, (that is wee Wendy) must ask them. They are:

Are you donating in a personal or business capacity?

If personal, are you registered to vote in the UK mainland, or if business is the company incorporated in the UK.

That is it. No ifs, no buts.

Not hard is it?

The BBC has this.

For more on Donorgate see here.

Sean Connery rushed into surgery!

Sean Connery has been rushed into surgery today to have his sides sewn up after they split.

Aids report that he was found laughing so hard that not only had his sides split but was sitting in a suspicious patch of "liquid".

Beside him were reports of the funding scandal Wendy Alexander is embroiled in. Having passed a law almost specifically designed to stop Sean Connery donating to the SNP, which he has now complied with it appears that Sean suffered from far too much laughter seeing them caught in their own trap.

Doctors say that the operation has gone well. There was no need for anesthetic as the laughter was far better.

Visitors to hospital report Sean is sitting up in bed, still laughing his a*se off.

Guido has this.

(PS, for the daft, this is a joke)

Donorgate: Labour's fifth man?

There is an article in the Telegraph online, which will probably make it into the paper today. It leads on Peter Hain and his "administrative error" (which will be the subject of a later post) but goes on to give some interesting information.

George Crawford, a Newcastle based solicitor has been doing some digging and found that a George Crawford had donated £36,000 to Labour in 2004. The thing is that was not George Crawford the solicitor and he suspects his identity may have been stolen. He has has a complaint to Northumbria police who have passed that on to Scotland yard.

So Donorgate looks set for yet another round.

Meanwhile, no one responsible for this has resigned except Peter Watt. Wendy Alexander still hangs on despite the fact that her position has gone way passed untenable. Peter Hain is still there as well. Harriet Harman who ought as a lawyer to know still is as well.

Shocking isn't it? More on Donorgate here.

Paul Gray resigned for 13 days!

Paul Gray the senior civil servant in charge of losing 25 million records at the HMRC resigned for 13 days! That beats most Labour ministers on the resignation reappointment stakes.

He also gets the same money, but is now working in the Cabinet office for Sir Gus O'Donnell.

Has he paid back his severance money?

Channel 4 News,which broke the story has this. Well, when they have a link on their website here I will add it. It lead there news today.

Update 22:12

Apparently a spokesman for the Cabinet office has been on to the BBC and told them he is merely working out his notice, as that was felt to be better value for the tax payer.

Fair enough... if true.

Donorgate: What is the point of more laws?

When the current problem is Labour party senior figures failing to comply with the current ones either through incompetence or sheer mendacity.

For more on donorgate see here.

Peter Hain admits failing to declare all donations, Again!?

Just what is going on. Peter Hain was forced to confess last week that he had not declared a £5,000 donation last week. He blamed that on an "administrative error" Now, after Guido wheedled out the truth from a donor and Peter Hain's SpAd, Joe Carberry Hain has confessed to other donations not reported at all.

Peter Hain claims that this was part of a process of his team double checking all donations according to the BBC here. Anyone believe him?

Wendy Alexander: I won't resign!

Oh yes you will, but maybe just not yet.

In a laughable statement Wendy Alexander insisted she will not resign, and indeed the Electoral commission will exonerate her of any intentional wrongdoing. Her statement is as follows:

I deeply regret the damage which recent publicity has brought to the Labour party.

However, I reject any suggestion of intentional wrongdoing on my part. I intend to address these matters with the Electoral Commission, with whom I am co-operating fully.

I am confident when all the facts are known I will be exonerated of any intentional wrongdoing.

Well, it will soon be a police inquiry because intent is not in the law it is one of strict liability. She will have to show that they did check it was a permissible donation and frankly I don't think they can do that. It does get worse though. As I said in this post, it is clear that her husband knew the wheels had come off three weeks before she stated she had only just heard about it.

There is much speculation that she has been pressurised into staying on by Gordon Brown's team as her going would cause immense trouble in Westminster, not least for the hapless Harriet Harman who as yet has still failed to declare massive loans used to fund her successful campaign to become Labour deputy leader. It is clear Harriet Harman is in breach of the law and as a former Solicitor General knows she cant claim ignorance as a defence.

Well, it is true that Wendy Alexander resigning now would be a disaster for Labour north and south of the border. Wendy was supposed to be rebuilding Labour in Scotland and to be frank they have few other options out of a very limited talent pool. It would cause immense problems for Labour at Westminster as well. If Harriet goes who is next? Does she know where Gordon Brown has buried the bodies?

The problem is that Wendy Alexander will have to be arrested and questioned under caution and will have to resign at some point so all that is happening is the pain is being drawn out. All the other consequences that Gordon is afraid of will follow any way.

It is not a question of if Wendy Alexander resigns, but when.

The BBC has this.

Donorgate, the hole gets bigger!

One of the most interesting things about donor scandals is how the donors don't like the party they have donated to spinning against them.

The Independent on Sunday carries this front page entitled "I accuse" in which David Abrahams not only says that he told Jon Mendelsohn of his donation methods in April but suspects that the seating arrangement was no accident. This was at a meeting in April.

The article goes on to say that 10 senior Labour officials were in the know, and whilst he won't reveal them in the press, he will pass that all on to the police when they ask.

David Abrahams has also penned this piece in Independent on Sunday as an op-ed article in which he makes clear his motivation for keeping his anonymity and how losing it would be a deal breaker.

Then there is this in the Sunday Times in which David Abrahams claims that 10 senior Labour officials knew about the way in which he donated. No rogue official then? Labour are of course denying this.

Gordon Brown's tight fist kills 14

The report into the crash of a Nimrod surveillance aircraft is due next week. It covers the crash that claimed the lives of 14 RAF servicemen from RAF Kinloss.

The Sunday Times carries this damning article on how the faults were warned about, and how a 2004 report was produced at the governments request, saying that a replacement could not be delayed because of the specific faults in the aging aircraft, related to the 1982 Falklands war rapid fit of air to air refueling. The report was ignored for financial reasons, and no work around was looked for or implemented.

Other incidents and reports highlighted the problem, and again because Gordon Brown was too tight, they were not acted on.

Wendy Alexander to resign: Official!

Wendy Alexander, leader of Labour at Holyrood is to resign in the the next few days, or take the whole of Labour in Scotland with her.

It is clear from the front page of Scotland's Sunday Herald that her position has become entirely untenable.

The issue is related to party funding, more specifically the funding of her campaign to become leader of the Labour group in the Scottish parliament after the resignation of Jack McConnell. Wendy ended up getting the job unchallenged. However just in case she had a campaign fund organised which she used to fund a tour instead.

The crucial thing is where the money came from. One donation appeared to come from a company called CPS, but they have denied that and on further digging it turned out to come from a Paul Green of Jersey, who is not registered to vote in the UK and so not a permissible donor. That much has been admitted by the soon to be former leader of Labour in Scotland, Wendy Alexander.

Well OK, mistakes happen.

Well it has now all started to hit the fan,because it is now a question of who knew what and when. Wendy's position was that she only found about it last Thursday. That now looks a bit less credible than Comical Ali's assurances that America was about to be defeated in that famous Baghdad press conference with American tanks in the background.

Guido published this this letter from Wendy personally thanking Paul Green for his donation and sent to his address in Jersey. Wendy Alexander's team argue that whilst it came from a company entitled to donate, the letter had to go to an individual...


well the Sunday Herald's article linked to above and here just blows that apart. They have got hold of an electronic copy of a secret donor list which not only lists Paul Green as the donor, rather that the company he does not own, CPS but also clearly questions its legality. It gets worse. It looks like it was typed up on here husbands computer.

The time is definitely up for Wendy Alexander. Word has it that her brother "wee Dougie" Douglass Alexander is not going to have a good week next week either.

The Sunday Herald also has this and this on just how sleazy Labour are.

Can it get worse for Labour? I suspect it can.

Brown, Mendelsohn and dirty money

Well, David Abrahams has been on TV saying that he discussed the round about route of donating money with Jon Mendelsohn in April, a claim Jon Mendelson hotly denies.

However, you may like to read this about Labour, influence and the buying thereof, and how it may involve both Gordon Brown and Jon Mendelsohn.

Hat tip to Rod Crosby on politicalbetting.com.