I have said all along that there will not be an October election. That is still my view, unless Gordon Brown gets very reckless.
However the failure to rule one out, and it being reported as a ruse to disturb the Conservatives (which has been the underlying current of some of the media reporting) will come back to haunt Labour if Gordon Brown does not have an early election.
There is of course a downside, which is that he does have an early election. If he does then he faces the possibility of losing seats, and bringing on some lame duck feeling. This is a certainty. Labour will have a smaller majority, if it has one at all, than last time.
The other thing is that the electorate may smell a rat, even if one is not there. They seem to punish those that put them through unnecessary elections. What is more, is that they may feel that the election is being called because the politicians know something they don't, for example that there is going to be an economic downturn. To be fair the polls indicate that Gordon Brown is more trusted in a crisis than David Cameron, however firstly that sows doubt, and secondly the last thing you want to do is win an election when things are about to go seriously pear shaped after you have been in power for years. We did that in 1992, and I suspect had we lost that one we would have been back in power in 1997 and still in power now. There are worse things than losing an election, there is winning one.
The big problem Gordon faces though is that election fever could well over take him if he does not quell it. he could look very stupid with all the media, and indeed Labour party speculation clamoring for one, and then not calling one. In short, he would become Chicken Gordon.
In politics, every silver lining has a cloud.
The Daily Mail has this, The Guardian has this, with this by Andrew Rawnsley, and this on comment is free on how vain it would be and this as a leader, the Times has this whilst the Telegraph has this.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Polls to the left of them, Polls to the right of them!
Volatility continues in the polls with the size of Labour's lead changing from poll to poll, in different directions.
The Latest poll in today's Sunday Mirror shows Labour on 39% (-1), the Conservatives on 33% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (-1). The poll was carried out by ICM and is directly comparable (changes shown compared to last Wednesday's Guardian poll) to a poll conducted only last week.
With this sort of volatility I can't see Gordon Brown calling a snap election, but then I never could. Further more I can't see him building a bigger lead either.
What is clear is that Brown is tactically trying to out manouver his opponents in the short term. Tactically this is working a bit, but what about the long term? Is it a strategic mistake? I think so. I can see his big tent blowing up in his face, with recriminations later on.
On Monday I listened to Lord Paddy Ashdown talk about Gordon Brown, and it is clear he does not care for him much. the clear implication was that he thinks Brown is a tactician not a strategist. I agree. However that may make him inclined to cut and run.
If Gordon Brown does go for an October election his majority will be cut.
Political betting also has this.
The Latest poll in today's Sunday Mirror shows Labour on 39% (-1), the Conservatives on 33% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (-1). The poll was carried out by ICM and is directly comparable (changes shown compared to last Wednesday's Guardian poll) to a poll conducted only last week.
With this sort of volatility I can't see Gordon Brown calling a snap election, but then I never could. Further more I can't see him building a bigger lead either.
What is clear is that Brown is tactically trying to out manouver his opponents in the short term. Tactically this is working a bit, but what about the long term? Is it a strategic mistake? I think so. I can see his big tent blowing up in his face, with recriminations later on.
On Monday I listened to Lord Paddy Ashdown talk about Gordon Brown, and it is clear he does not care for him much. the clear implication was that he thinks Brown is a tactician not a strategist. I agree. However that may make him inclined to cut and run.
If Gordon Brown does go for an October election his majority will be cut.
Political betting also has this.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Gordon Brown's Latest Gimmick
I have to say I am quite surprised by Gordon Brown's latest gimmick.
Apparently he has ordered that every hospital should be "deep cleaned" as in shut down ward by ward and effectively disinfected bit by bit.
The purpose is to rid hospitals of the so called "super bug" MRSA and other hospital acquired infections. This is of course a laudable aim, however if that was all that was required, both John Major's government and Tony Blair's would have as well.
It could make hospitals MRSA free, but only if you don't allow patients and staff back in afterwards, particularly ill ones.
What is needed is good solid discipline on things like hand cleaning.
The BBC has this.
PS
Sorry blogging has been light, I have been working on anti spam systems.
Apparently he has ordered that every hospital should be "deep cleaned" as in shut down ward by ward and effectively disinfected bit by bit.
The purpose is to rid hospitals of the so called "super bug" MRSA and other hospital acquired infections. This is of course a laudable aim, however if that was all that was required, both John Major's government and Tony Blair's would have as well.
It could make hospitals MRSA free, but only if you don't allow patients and staff back in afterwards, particularly ill ones.
What is needed is good solid discipline on things like hand cleaning.
The BBC has this.
PS
Sorry blogging has been light, I have been working on anti spam systems.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Sorry about the lack of blogging today and yesterday
I have been working on spam cleaning mail servers.
Just to give you an idea, one mail server I look after handles millions of emails a week.
Just to give you an idea, one mail server I look after handles millions of emails a week.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Northern Rock Shares start the long haul back
Northern Rock shares, have risen 10% this morning, whilst Alliance and Leicester have risen 21% and the Bradford and Bingley have also made up for some of their losses as well.
That is a bit of good news. The Northern Rock is still worth a small fraction of what it was 12 months ago, but at least its shares have stopped falling like a stone. The other two have not made back all their losses of yesterday but at least the rot appears to have stopped for now.
The downside it that some people are still queuing to get their money out of Northern Rock. Trust in government is clearly at a very low ebb.
The BBC has this.
PS forgot to publish yesterday. Doh!
That is a bit of good news. The Northern Rock is still worth a small fraction of what it was 12 months ago, but at least its shares have stopped falling like a stone. The other two have not made back all their losses of yesterday but at least the rot appears to have stopped for now.
The downside it that some people are still queuing to get their money out of Northern Rock. Trust in government is clearly at a very low ebb.
The BBC has this.
PS forgot to publish yesterday. Doh!
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Labour increase poll lead to 8%, so I am off to the pub...
Mind you I was off there anyway to practice pool.
According to an ICM poll in tomorrow's Guardian Labour are on 40%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 20%.
More later.
Sky has this.
According to an ICM poll in tomorrow's Guardian Labour are on 40%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 20%.
More later.
Sky has this.
The Fed cuts rates by 1/2%!
The United States Federal Reserve has apparently cut interest rates by 0.5% to 4.75%.
Stunning really.
I wonder if the Bank of England will follow suit, after all the governments favoured method of measuring inflation is down to 1.8% even if real inflation is at 4.1%.
The worry is that the central banks are all being hemmed in by this huge debt mountain so can't really deal with things like money supply.
The BBC has this.
Stunning really.
I wonder if the Bank of England will follow suit, after all the governments favoured method of measuring inflation is down to 1.8% even if real inflation is at 4.1%.
The worry is that the central banks are all being hemmed in by this huge debt mountain so can't really deal with things like money supply.
The BBC has this.
A Coppers Blog Goes Panorama
I have just watched A Coppers Blog on Panorama, in which Stuart Davidson has been outed as David Copperfield.
I'd like to say I was shocked, or surprised. With regret I am not. I will say something can be done.
For a start, a policeman will have to fill out a form when he arrests someone. This form is about one side of A4. Fair enough. He will then have to add about another half a side of A4 on top of that across anywhere between 30 and 50 forms. This is plainly stupid. Bonkers. Idiocy.
It is not that the information does not need to get to where it gets to, or that it needs to be verified as correct by the arresting officer. It is that we do not need to repeat the entry of the data so many times, with the obvious creation of mistakes by double entering the same data.
There are computer companies, like the one advertised on the right, that can build small and cheap systems to fill in all the forms necessary for any given crime, on the basis that the arresting officer tells it what class of offender and crime has been committed and then fills in all the fields. Alas government IT projects seem to have a much bigger and all encompassing scope, that fails to talk to the grass roots and so costs a bucket and falls on its face.
Panorama has this, whilst a Coppers Blog has this.
PS.
I note that Tony McNumpty rubbished A Coppers Blog in parliament, but has since in the face of reality at least partially withdrawn his attack.
I'd like to say I was shocked, or surprised. With regret I am not. I will say something can be done.
For a start, a policeman will have to fill out a form when he arrests someone. This form is about one side of A4. Fair enough. He will then have to add about another half a side of A4 on top of that across anywhere between 30 and 50 forms. This is plainly stupid. Bonkers. Idiocy.
It is not that the information does not need to get to where it gets to, or that it needs to be verified as correct by the arresting officer. It is that we do not need to repeat the entry of the data so many times, with the obvious creation of mistakes by double entering the same data.
There are computer companies, like the one advertised on the right, that can build small and cheap systems to fill in all the forms necessary for any given crime, on the basis that the arresting officer tells it what class of offender and crime has been committed and then fills in all the fields. Alas government IT projects seem to have a much bigger and all encompassing scope, that fails to talk to the grass roots and so costs a bucket and falls on its face.
Panorama has this, whilst a Coppers Blog has this.
PS.
I note that Tony McNumpty rubbished A Coppers Blog in parliament, but has since in the face of reality at least partially withdrawn his attack.
McCann's Innocent Shocker!
In a remarkable turn a Judge in Portugal has found that the police there are in fact talking bollocks not in possession of a watertight case and can't demand that the McCann's return.
I must admit I am shocked, I thought they had them bang to rights with the theory that one of them nipped out with the body and hid it in a road works for 25 days of searing heat without people noticing the smell (does that town really smell that bad?) or that the local priest gave out keys to any passing holiday maker to hide bodies in the fridge at the Church which other members of the congregation were obviously to polite to query when they opened the fridge.
However, a judge does not give these theories credence. I wonder why?
The Sun has this, the Daily Dianna Express has this, whilst the Mirror has this.
I must admit I am shocked, I thought they had them bang to rights with the theory that one of them nipped out with the body and hid it in a road works for 25 days of searing heat without people noticing the smell (does that town really smell that bad?) or that the local priest gave out keys to any passing holiday maker to hide bodies in the fridge at the Church which other members of the congregation were obviously to polite to query when they opened the fridge.
However, a judge does not give these theories credence. I wonder why?
The Sun has this, the Daily Dianna Express has this, whilst the Mirror has this.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Alliance and Leicester and the Bradford and Bingley shares under pressure!
Something I should have put in the last article really. However the Alliance and Leicester and the Bradford and Bingley are under severe pressure on the stock markets as well.
Lets just hope we don't get a run on these banks as well.
Lets just hope we don't get a run on these banks as well.
Dramatic guarantee of the Northern Rock
I have to say I am flabbergasted that the chancellor Alistair Darling has said that the government will guarantee the deposits in the Northern Rock.
This is a stunning change on the position of this morning where only the first £2,000 were guaranteed in full, and 90% of the next £30,000.
George Osbourne has backed the move, whilst rightly criticising the underlying issue of the unchecked growth in personal debt which both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have banging on about for ages.
However I am not sure that this bailout is a great idea. It may be, and it may stop the rot, but the problem I have is that the government has effectively underwritten the mortgage lending of the banking sector, and thereby house prices. If there is serious negative equity ahead then there is going to be a large hole in the banks assets which are not apparent today.
Also I note interview with people in the queues. There main reason for ignoring government assurances thus far is that they just do not believe the government. I wonder if this "unequivocal" guarantee will steady nerves. I suspect that Northern Rock employees are hoping it will.
Meanwhile the Bank of England has now the problem that it is hemmed in on interest rates. It surely can't raise them to combat inflation, yet prices will rise as the output of China grows in price. This could leave us in a bit of an ugly situation.
The BBC has this.
This is a stunning change on the position of this morning where only the first £2,000 were guaranteed in full, and 90% of the next £30,000.
George Osbourne has backed the move, whilst rightly criticising the underlying issue of the unchecked growth in personal debt which both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have banging on about for ages.
However I am not sure that this bailout is a great idea. It may be, and it may stop the rot, but the problem I have is that the government has effectively underwritten the mortgage lending of the banking sector, and thereby house prices. If there is serious negative equity ahead then there is going to be a large hole in the banks assets which are not apparent today.
Also I note interview with people in the queues. There main reason for ignoring government assurances thus far is that they just do not believe the government. I wonder if this "unequivocal" guarantee will steady nerves. I suspect that Northern Rock employees are hoping it will.
Meanwhile the Bank of England has now the problem that it is hemmed in on interest rates. It surely can't raise them to combat inflation, yet prices will rise as the output of China grows in price. This could leave us in a bit of an ugly situation.
The BBC has this.
Northern Rock: Why was it saved?
Well, that is assuming it is saved. It seems there is plenty of doubt about that.
Mervin King said that the Bank of England would not be the lender of last resort except in very special circumstances, that being a systematic failure of the financial system.
To be fair to Northern Rock, Barclay's have also dipped into the Bank of England's fund, but only once, and not for a revolving line of credit.
As Guido notes here, the city has been aware that the Northern Rock was nothing like as solid as its share price suggested for some time before the USA sub prime crisis hit.
Guido then goes on to question whether the loan extended was not because of the traditional support for Labour that the Northern Rock has been. It seems they were generous to miners during the miners strike of 1984.
The bigger issue however is the wisdom of the loan.
The die has been cast. If a bank that has a book that looks good but no other bank wants to touch, apparently the tax payer has to bail them out.
Surely we should be asking why it is that the Northern Rock is in such a hard place, whilst other banks are not?
As the Financial Times says this damages the reputation of the Bank of England. We should remember that banks have failed before, like for example, Barrings. Their bond holders and shareholders lost their shirts but their depositors did not as the bank was taken over.
Why would Labour prop up one of its favourite bank?
Mervin King said that the Bank of England would not be the lender of last resort except in very special circumstances, that being a systematic failure of the financial system.
To be fair to Northern Rock, Barclay's have also dipped into the Bank of England's fund, but only once, and not for a revolving line of credit.
As Guido notes here, the city has been aware that the Northern Rock was nothing like as solid as its share price suggested for some time before the USA sub prime crisis hit.
Guido then goes on to question whether the loan extended was not because of the traditional support for Labour that the Northern Rock has been. It seems they were generous to miners during the miners strike of 1984.
The bigger issue however is the wisdom of the loan.
The die has been cast. If a bank that has a book that looks good but no other bank wants to touch, apparently the tax payer has to bail them out.
Surely we should be asking why it is that the Northern Rock is in such a hard place, whilst other banks are not?
As the Financial Times says this damages the reputation of the Bank of England. We should remember that banks have failed before, like for example, Barrings. Their bond holders and shareholders lost their shirts but their depositors did not as the bank was taken over.
Why would Labour prop up one of its favourite bank?
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Lord Owen to rejoin Labour?
Today's Sunday Telegraph reports that Lord Owen has been in talks with Gordon Brown. It also has this analysis and comment here.
I can see that going down like a bucket of cold sick in Labour's ranks, understandably so. I do not have much time for David Owen.
I can see that going down like a bucket of cold sick in Labour's ranks, understandably so. I do not have much time for David Owen.
YouGov Poll Lead cut to 5% for Labour
Though to be fair it has drifted up by 2% since the last poll a couple of weeks ago.
The poll in today's Sunday Times has Labour on 39% (+1) the Conservatives on 34% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 15% (NC).
I still can't see an early election based on these numbers, and still think we will not see one until May 2010 by which time there will be a "time for a change" mood in the electorate.
Personally I am expecting continued poll turbulence over the next 3 months, though I expect the Conservatives to be ahead in at least one poll in early October.
PoliticalBetting has this, whilst Anthony Wells has this.
The poll in today's Sunday Times has Labour on 39% (+1) the Conservatives on 34% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 15% (NC).
I still can't see an early election based on these numbers, and still think we will not see one until May 2010 by which time there will be a "time for a change" mood in the electorate.
Personally I am expecting continued poll turbulence over the next 3 months, though I expect the Conservatives to be ahead in at least one poll in early October.
PoliticalBetting has this, whilst Anthony Wells has this.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
The Run on the Northern Rock
It looks like savers with the Northern Rock are panicking. Queues are forming that go around the corner.
This looks very bad. However the Northern Rock looks fairly solid.
What seems to be happening is that savers have lost enough confidence that they want their money out just in case the bank goes bust. Fair enough, but it does not look good.
Yesterday people withdrew £1 billion. That is a lot of money. I understand that the bank has net assets that mean that even if all their savers withdraw all their money then the bank can still trade, backed up by the Bank of England, so there is no need for people to panic. That said if I had a lot of money in the Northern Rock I would be moving some of it about.
The BBC has this.
This looks very bad. However the Northern Rock looks fairly solid.
What seems to be happening is that savers have lost enough confidence that they want their money out just in case the bank goes bust. Fair enough, but it does not look good.
Yesterday people withdrew £1 billion. That is a lot of money. I understand that the bank has net assets that mean that even if all their savers withdraw all their money then the bank can still trade, backed up by the Bank of England, so there is no need for people to panic. That said if I had a lot of money in the Northern Rock I would be moving some of it about.
The BBC has this.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Madeleine overdose anyone?
It seems the tabloids (apart from the Sun) will go with speculation that Madeleine McCann died of an overdose.
Hmm.
We have had no confession, and unremarkably no toxicology report as no body has been found. So where does this speculation come from? Apparently some rumour that bodily fluids were found in the boot of the hire car which prove it. Whose bodily fluids? Are we sure that cross contamination has not occurred?
Well, apparently our forensic service is more than skeptical about these claims and rightly so. I am not ruling it out, but that is just tosh to sell papers.
Meanwhile the Daily Mail does have this piece on diary entries which have been leaked by the evidently not that shy Portuguese police.
The upshot of the entries leaked is the Kate McCann found motherhood challenging.
Could any mothers who felt it was like falling of a log backwards please leave their comments?
Hmm.
We have had no confession, and unremarkably no toxicology report as no body has been found. So where does this speculation come from? Apparently some rumour that bodily fluids were found in the boot of the hire car which prove it. Whose bodily fluids? Are we sure that cross contamination has not occurred?
Well, apparently our forensic service is more than skeptical about these claims and rightly so. I am not ruling it out, but that is just tosh to sell papers.
Meanwhile the Daily Mail does have this piece on diary entries which have been leaked by the evidently not that shy Portuguese police.
The upshot of the entries leaked is the Kate McCann found motherhood challenging.
Could any mothers who felt it was like falling of a log backwards please leave their comments?
Flash Gordon! Aha... No, its just Stalin
Thunder Dragon has this fantastic parody of the new Satchi and Satchi advet for Labour.
Says it all really.
Thunder Dragon's blog is here.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
How the McCann's killed Madeleine!?
Now, I have been hearing a lot of tosh on the subject, but the collected gossip seems to run along these sorts of lines:
Kate McCann ended Madeleine's life by accident or design.
Well, OK, these things happen. Statistically speaking most murders are committed by someone known to the deceased, frequently a family member and trebly so in the case of a young child. As a theory it is plausible, which is why most UK police forces look to eliminate family from the inquiry as soon as possible, and as sensitively as possible. It seems Gerry McCann is excluded because he was at the dinner and never went up.
Right, Madeleine is now dead, Kate is on scene, and she has to do something.
At this point one of two things could have happened. Either she came up with her own plan, and hid the body, or she left things as they were and went down to the party to tell Gerry.
At this time of course Madeleine is "missing" so Kate is allowed to look distressed and unusual.
So either Kate tells Gerry and a conspiracy brews, or she has already hidden the body.
Here the crackpots diverge, but I will try to keep it together.
We assume, that plans to hide the body came shortly after death, and shortly before reports of Madeleine going missing. If not, then Kate and or Gerry would have been behaving strangely at their dinner engagement. You would hope that this would have been noticed.
You are in a foreign country for a holiday, just where do you hide a body albeit a small one?
Here I have heard some wild thoughts, and this is where things begin to fall apart.
At some point in time it seems the McCann's had a key to a local church, which may have had a fridge or freezer.
I doubt they had they keys on the night in question. I work well on holidays and can normally find a "local" in double quick time, but to be given that level of trust so quickly? The keys must have arrived later to allow private prayer after Madeleine went missing and can't have been available on the night.
Then I have heard the theory that they/she hid the body in a roadworks. I understand that there are a few in the area, though I do not know how close to the hotel. Just how is this supposed to have worked?
One or both of them nip out with a body? In what? The most obvious and thing would be a bin bag or possibly several. That said you don't normally find a surplus of them in hotels. Then there are suitcases. Is there one missing? Ideally you would double wrap in bin bags then put them in a suitcase.
The theory would then be that the bag or bags with Madeleine in it would be put in a hole at a road works.
The problems here are as follows:
The other alternate theory is that at some point Madeleine was hidden in a fridge at the church complex to which they ended up with the key. Again, when did they get the keys? Also, surely someone would have noticed something that large in a fridge?
We now get on the the DNA in the boot. The theory calls for the body to be moved after 25 days, during which it has either been in a hot hole in the ground, or a fridge or possibly a combination, in the Renault Scenic. Again they were under a lot of media scrutiny. During this process some DNA got out of what ever Madeleine was being stored in, and into the boot. Now by this time the stench would have been unbearable. Also, if the body had been in a hole in the ground, surely there would have been traces of mud from the hole as well as the DNA?
Lastly, on the DNA, the technique used amplifies very small amounts of DNA, so a microscopic amount is all that is needed. Also there is nothing in Madeleine's DNA that is not also in her biological parents DNA. Consequently the DNA test does not actually tell us a great deal.
I'll go back to a point I made before. If either Kate or Gerry caused the death of Madeleine, and got the other to collude in hiding the body, at some point the relationship is going to break down. It shows no signs of doing so. If there was no collusion, how did one manage to hide and move the body without the other noticing?
The thing is that for a whole host of reasons I just can't see this stacking up.
Kate McCann ended Madeleine's life by accident or design.
Well, OK, these things happen. Statistically speaking most murders are committed by someone known to the deceased, frequently a family member and trebly so in the case of a young child. As a theory it is plausible, which is why most UK police forces look to eliminate family from the inquiry as soon as possible, and as sensitively as possible. It seems Gerry McCann is excluded because he was at the dinner and never went up.
Right, Madeleine is now dead, Kate is on scene, and she has to do something.
At this point one of two things could have happened. Either she came up with her own plan, and hid the body, or she left things as they were and went down to the party to tell Gerry.
At this time of course Madeleine is "missing" so Kate is allowed to look distressed and unusual.
So either Kate tells Gerry and a conspiracy brews, or she has already hidden the body.
Here the crackpots diverge, but I will try to keep it together.
We assume, that plans to hide the body came shortly after death, and shortly before reports of Madeleine going missing. If not, then Kate and or Gerry would have been behaving strangely at their dinner engagement. You would hope that this would have been noticed.
You are in a foreign country for a holiday, just where do you hide a body albeit a small one?
Here I have heard some wild thoughts, and this is where things begin to fall apart.
At some point in time it seems the McCann's had a key to a local church, which may have had a fridge or freezer.
I doubt they had they keys on the night in question. I work well on holidays and can normally find a "local" in double quick time, but to be given that level of trust so quickly? The keys must have arrived later to allow private prayer after Madeleine went missing and can't have been available on the night.
Then I have heard the theory that they/she hid the body in a roadworks. I understand that there are a few in the area, though I do not know how close to the hotel. Just how is this supposed to have worked?
One or both of them nip out with a body? In what? The most obvious and thing would be a bin bag or possibly several. That said you don't normally find a surplus of them in hotels. Then there are suitcases. Is there one missing? Ideally you would double wrap in bin bags then put them in a suitcase.
The theory would then be that the bag or bags with Madeleine in it would be put in a hole at a road works.
The problems here are as follows:
- It is going to be hot, and the body will decompose and smell.
- If it is not in a solid animal proof bag, then the bag will get ripped apart and smell. People will notice.
- People will notice something dropped in a hole in the ground, particularly the people working in the hole.
- If it was disguised in the hole, by covering with dirt, then either Kate of Gerry would end up covered as well as looking very suspicious at 10 at night.
The other alternate theory is that at some point Madeleine was hidden in a fridge at the church complex to which they ended up with the key. Again, when did they get the keys? Also, surely someone would have noticed something that large in a fridge?
We now get on the the DNA in the boot. The theory calls for the body to be moved after 25 days, during which it has either been in a hot hole in the ground, or a fridge or possibly a combination, in the Renault Scenic. Again they were under a lot of media scrutiny. During this process some DNA got out of what ever Madeleine was being stored in, and into the boot. Now by this time the stench would have been unbearable. Also, if the body had been in a hole in the ground, surely there would have been traces of mud from the hole as well as the DNA?
Lastly, on the DNA, the technique used amplifies very small amounts of DNA, so a microscopic amount is all that is needed. Also there is nothing in Madeleine's DNA that is not also in her biological parents DNA. Consequently the DNA test does not actually tell us a great deal.
I'll go back to a point I made before. If either Kate or Gerry caused the death of Madeleine, and got the other to collude in hiding the body, at some point the relationship is going to break down. It shows no signs of doing so. If there was no collusion, how did one manage to hide and move the body without the other noticing?
The thing is that for a whole host of reasons I just can't see this stacking up.
New Foot and Mouth outbreak was Pirbright strain
This is not actually a surprise but the latest foot and mouth outbreak is the same strain as used at Pribright which means one of two things:
The BBC has this.
- The virus survived longer in the wild than was thought likely
- Pirbright is still leaking the virus.
The BBC has this.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Lanarkshire sheep tests OK, as foot and mouth may be in Norfolk as well
Well, the Lanarkshire sheep at the market has tested negative for foot and mouth but there is a suspected outbreak in Norfolk.
It has to be said that we should expect a lot of suspected outbreaks, with a bit of luck we won't actually get any more becoming confirmed ones.
The BBC has this.
It has to be said that we should expect a lot of suspected outbreaks, with a bit of luck we won't actually get any more becoming confirmed ones.
The BBC has this.
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