Sunday, September 23, 2007

Polls to the left of them, Polls to the right of them!

Volatility continues in the polls with the size of Labour's lead changing from poll to poll, in different directions.

The Latest poll in today's Sunday Mirror shows Labour on 39% (-1), the Conservatives on 33% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (-1). The poll was carried out by ICM and is directly comparable (changes shown compared to last Wednesday's Guardian poll) to a poll conducted only last week.

With this sort of volatility I can't see Gordon Brown calling a snap election, but then I never could. Further more I can't see him building a bigger lead either.

What is clear is that Brown is tactically trying to out manouver his opponents in the short term. Tactically this is working a bit, but what about the long term? Is it a strategic mistake? I think so. I can see his big tent blowing up in his face, with recriminations later on.

On Monday I listened to Lord Paddy Ashdown talk about Gordon Brown, and it is clear he does not care for him much. the clear implication was that he thinks Brown is a tactician not a strategist. I agree. However that may make him inclined to cut and run.

If Gordon Brown does go for an October election his majority will be cut.

Political betting also has this.

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