Monday, September 10, 2007

Is the surge working in Iraq?

The short answer is yes though it still has the feel of too little too late.

Sunni tribes are also coming on board but that is more to do with Al Qada being a better recruiting sergeant for the USA than the USA is currently being for them in Iraq. (Which is very much down to the change in tactics brought in by General Patraeus who clearly knows what he is doing and seems to have learned a lot from the British way of doing things whilst we have in part forgotten but have not been able to do because we don't have anything like enough troops to do the job.)

For more on Iraq see here.

13 comments:

Letters From A Tory said...

Not sure I agree that it is working, and the Iraqi people certainly don't agree.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6983841.stm

Anonymous said...

Thirty-four warships and submarines from India, Japan, Singapore, Australia, and the United States have just concluded a naval training exercise. The six-day exercise, sponsored by the Indian Navy, is codenamed “Malabar” and is occurring about 100 nautical miles from India’s Andaman archipelago. The U.S. Navy’s contribution includes two aircraft carriers and an attack submarine. (See this report from the BBC for a few more details.)here

This naval exercise, which will receive virtually no coverage by the American media, is a glimpse into America’s future security strategy. America’s so-called “special relationship” is supposed to describe its diplomatic and military association with Great Britain. True enough, as far as it describes THE PAST.

But that book is now closed. The other “Malabar” countries, Japan, India, Singapore, and Australia, represent the cornerstone of America’s most important strategic imperative during the first half of the 21st century. The United States is not yet in a confrontation with China. But the U.S. still needs to establish an architecture to balance China’s future strategic position. These four countries, along with others in the Asia-Pacific area, share this interest with America.

The next president will soon see the need to promote Japan to “first among equals” with respect to America’s bilateral relationships. Unless and until Russia re-emerges as a hard belligerent, BRITAIN AND THE REST OF EUROPE WILL BE TOO OCCUPIED IN THE DECADES AHEAD WITH ISLAMIC INTERNAL SECURITY PROBLEMS AND OTHER SYMPTOMS OF SOCIAL DECAY TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO GLOBAL SECURITY ISSUES. China’s explosive rise by contrast is something the rest of Asia cannot ignore. Japan, India, Australia, Singapore, and others must mobilize and organize. The Malabar exercise is a demonstration of this.

By mid-century we should expect America’s “special relationship” to shift again, from Japan to India. India’s rapid economic and military expansion, combined with Japan’s languishing demographics, will make this necessary.

So look to the 34 warships near the Andaman islands and see America’s future security strategy.

From the third week of July, the only American strike force- carrier in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea region was the USS Enterprise. By the end of September, it will be joined by the USS Nimitz and the USS Truman Strike Groups. With their arrival, three American naval, air and marine forces will again confront Iranian shores at a time of crisis in the military and civilian leadership of Iran - signaled by the abrupt change of Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders, rising Israel-Syrian tensions and a troubled situation in Lebanon.

The Nimitz, part of the large-scale Malabar 2007 II exercise with five Asian nations, is termed by Indian military observers "the first step towards establishing Asian NATO". Since the maneuver ended Friday, Sept. 7, the Nimitz battle group has been on its way back to the Persian Gulf. The Truman group, made up of 12 warships and submarines, including a nuclear sub, with 7,600 sailors, air crew and marines aboard, has just completed a long series of training exercises and is preparing to set out for its new posting. It carries eight squadrons of fighters, bombers and spy planes.

The Truman force’s battle cry is: “Give ‘em hell”.

The combined naval strike groups include the Monterey-CG 61 guided missile cruiser, the USS Barry DDG 52 and USS Mason-DDG 87 guided missile destroyers, the USS Albuquerque-SSN 706 fast nuclear strike submarine and the combat logistical USNS Arctic T-AOE 8.

In the last week of August, the USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group took up position opposite the Lebanese coast to monitor the Lebanese September presidential election. Aboard the group’s vessels are members of the 22nd Marine special operations-capable Expeditionary Unit, who are ready to execute landings on Lebanese beaches if required.

Anonymous said...

So, under Gordon the Gorgon, our "special relationship" is going down the pan, whatever spin and lies he puts on it.
Jeez.
We surrender in Basra.
Under equipped and manned in Afghan.
Spend all the cash on data bases preparatory to what?
Banana republic is too good a description.
Did someone mention Cromwell?

Anonymous said...

Not sure I agree that it is working, and the Iraqi people certainly don't agree
Try looking at other authors, they contradict the al-beeb.

Try an Arab newspaper, for example

Anonymous said...

Aren't we looking for technology draw down/transfer, for the next Trident first/second strike capability?

Will that go down the pan too?

Will the yanks, or frogs, or Canadians, be building our nuclear reactors, that is, when we stop talking about them, and get off our fat civil servant arses?

Bet we haven't got the companies, or the knowledge.
Physics qualifications? You must be joking.
A star has a red shift, what does it mean? DDDUUUHHH!!!

Benedict White said...

letters from a Tory, I appreciate that an opinion poll in Iraq would not find it so, for the same reason that workers in a pits of a recession could not see the upturn.

The fact is though that Al Qada have lost the mind share in the Sunni community. If we had the troops on the ground in souther Iraq we could be making similar progress there, but we just do not have the troops at all.

Re Anonymous at 9.55. China is clearly a current threat and the US is right to build a PTO (Pacific Treaty Organisation) similar to NATO, and no as we are no longer an empire we have no local interests in the area and are not part of that (though arguably we should be).

China will be a threat for the next 30 years max, after that it will collapse under its own family planning rules.

Anonymous at 10PM our special relationship went down the pan when Tony Blair ...... (self censored)

Anonymous at 10.20, yes our knowledge base is collapsing in favour of media studies.

We are working on it.

Anonymous said...

"We are working on it".
Too little.
Too late.
Won't be effective.
Too many political interventions in schools/curriculum/spending patterns/reviews/ dilution of educational targeted funds by LEAs.
The Gorgons pledge to match private education funding per pupil is bollox, and he knows it.
Too many layers of civil servants between the coffers and the pupil.
Teachers salaries can't possibly match private education levels, inflexibility of unions.
When inspectorates OK obviously politically dangerous, educationally inept, "religious" schools, WTF do they expect?
When the entire nation is besotted by celebrity cult shows, and banal quiz shows, WTF do they expect?
When political commentary is of the level of andrew marr, orchestrated by left wing liars, WTF do they expect?

Naw, the political/social experiment of these stupid left wing twats has dam near killed a once fine country.

Anonymous said...

"China will be a threat for the next 30 years max, after that it will collapse under its own family planning rules."

You are correct, Benedict.
BUT
Confidentially speaking, before 30 years expires, our entire species will hit a brick wall, so profound, that I would hesitate to predict in even the broadest terms, the future shape of any currently existing nation state, or the broadest summary of our belief systems/economic models/social structures.
The basic knowledge of this brick wall is available for all to see. Those aware of it aren't discussing it per se, and 99.99% are blissfully unaware.

Anonymous said...

I am not referring to ununpentium, residing in the island of stability, predicted by bob lazar many years ago, and laughed out of court by physicists.
We did construct a few atoms of it a couple of years ago, but it was not stable.
Time will tell ;)
No, the wall is much more solid

Anonymous said...

The basic knowledge of this brick wall is available for all to see. Those aware of it aren't discussing it per se, and 99.99% are blissfully unaware.
The 0.01% who are aware, are liars in public, but, as is obvious, are making their own plans.


Go quietly into the night.

Lord Nazh© said...

too little - probably
too late - never too late til you quit :)

and no one should ever use the BBC as a 'valid' reference :)

Benedict White said...

Anonymous at 8:36. 11 September. I think you are talking about education in the UK rather than Iraq, and whilst I may agree with you, it is hardly on topic.

That said I do have to revisit education as a topic, keep your eyes peeled. I do not see any point in matching funding, when we are looking for value for money.

After all if we gave every council house tenant a Rolls Royce, they could not afford the petrol let alone the maintenance. What they would like to own is a car that is right for them.

Benedict White said...

Lord Nazh©, I agree with you. However if Colin Powel had been in charge at the Pentagon, the initial force would have been 500,000 and all bases would have been covered.

The fact is that in Northern Ireland we had 20,000 troops at the peak yet between Iraq and Afghanistan we have something like 10,000. Bonkers.

Neither the UK or the USA have resourced this enough in terms of boots on the ground.