Babies with MRSA Shocker!

Apparently 5 babies in a specialist unit in Glasgow have MRSA on their skin.

It would actually be shocking if 5 babies did not have MRSA somewhere as it is actually a remarkably common bug, and no the babies are not in any danger at all. They probably have it up their noses as well, as do the rest of us.

The trick is not to treat an open wound just after you have picked your nose, unless you have washed your hands first. Likewise there is no point in assuming that anyone else has washed their hands so if you have touched anyone else, wash your hands before you do anything important.

Or in short, don't deep clean hospitals, or get visitors to wash their hands, sack staff who do not wash their hands properly.

Meanwhile the BBC has this non story here.

Zimbabwe Elections: Will it backfire?

My understanding is that the presidential election run off is still going ahead despite the fact that Morgan Tsvangirai has stood down as a candidate to avoid further bloodshed.

However, Robert Mugabe is not only going ahead with the vote, but it seems that the voters have been told that if they do not vote they will be beaten.

I have to say that is a very dangerous tactic. I have to wonder if people will vote out of fear but vote for Morgan Tsvangirai.

Needless to say Mugabe is also saying that African leaders should mind their own business. So they should.. except that Zimbabwe is flooding the place with refugees. That causes them pain.

The Law Lords and Anonymous witnesses

The Law Lords have, in a well argued judgement ruled that Ian Davis had not received a fair trial because there was too much anonymous witness evidence. (See the BBC here)

The Police have expressed great concern about the ruling because they have many cases which rely on anonymous witness evidence.

So why the problem?

Obviously criminals, particularly those who have committed serious crimes such as murder have no respect for other peoples lives, and will not think twice about intimidating witnesses. There friends, family or gang members may do the actual intimidation so the fact that the accused is locked up is not enough.

However the right to a fair trial is a common law right, now in the Human Rights act as is the right to see and confront your accuser. This is vital to a fair trial.

Imagine the situation where you (and yes, I do mean YOU) are accused of a crime, say murder, and the only evidence against you is that of 2 anonymous witnesses. Neither you nor your defence team know who they are. You do not know what if any axes they have to grind against you.

Is there a precedent for anonymous witnesses? Yes, though not a happy one, the Spanish inquisition used them were on the list of , though I have heard that you had to have 3 accusers and got to write down a list of enemies. If your enemiesaccusers they were struck off.

If you think about it having anonymous witnesses is a very bad thing. Someone who feels you have done them down, or who has some axe to grind could be a witness against you, and you would never know.

So what is the real problem here? What is the ill we seek to cure?

It is fear. Remove the fear and then there is no need to have anonymous witnesses.

To remove the fear of witnesses we need to do two things. Firstly there needs to be a fully funded witness protection program, secondly there needs to be a specialist unit to investigate witness intimidation of any sort. We need to make sure that anyone who intimidates a witness serves a long prison sentence, say 10 years as a minimum, or longer if the crime that the intimidation is over has a longer sentence.

If people can't get away with witness intimidation they will stop doing it.

The BBC also has this article by Professor Jon Silverman, of the University of Bedfordshire.

New house Building hits 70 year low!

According to this article in the Evening Standard new house building in London is at its lowest level since the great depression 70 years ago.

New building targets are flying out of the window, redundancies in house building are on the way.

Grim news indeed.

Zimbabwe: Is it time for the Colonels to seek promotion?

Much spleen has been vented by Zimbabwe's generals about how they will never accept an MDC government, they say on the basis that it would be selling out to the former colonial power.

It is clear that Zimbabwe is going a bit pear shaped and has been for a while. The ultimate loyalty of the lower ranks of both the army and police has been drawn into question.

We know hear that the UN Security Council has condemned the violence and said there can not be a free and fair election. Bear in mind that this includes Russia, China and South Africa. Robert Mugabe and the Generals must feel very lonely.

This is the time when ambitious colonels can snatch a promotion and rid Zimbabwe of Mugabe and his clique. Go on, you know it makes sense!

The BBC has this.

Boris Johnson, James McGrath and The Shrill Cry of Racist!

And so we have our first casualty of the Boris Johnson mayoralty.

James McGrath was a senior aide to Boris Johnson who gave an interview to Marc Wadsworth, who is a member of the Labour party, alleged journalist and race campaigner.

Alas before doing so he appears (according to Marc Wadsworths article here) not to have bothered looking the man up. As refreshing as this is, after all it is good to know that those in government don't spin, it was also a mistake, because those in "journalism" certainly do.

James McGrath has stood down, over this exchange:

McGrath was far from politically correct, David-Cameron-new- cuddly-Conservative Party, when I pointed out to him a critical comment of Voice columnist Darcus Howe that the election of "Boris Johnson, a right-wing Conservative, might just trigger off a mass exodus of older Caribbean migrants back to our homelands".

He retorted: "Well, let them go if they don’t like it here." McGrath dismissed influential race commentator Howe as ‘shrill’.

Now it is clear to me who is saying "blacks go home", it is Darcus Howe, though why is unclear as I can't find the article in the Voice online.

The problem we have is that whilst someone like Ken Livingstone can tell Jews to "go back to Iran" and get away with all sorts of other comments some might view as racist, (as indeed can Labour with their "British Jobs for British Workers" slogan) we can't. That sort of mud sticks to us far more than it does to Labour. We can't change that perception over night.

So was Boris right to ask for his resignation? I fear he was. I have not met James McGrath, but hear he is a decent, kind and honourable man.

The problem is that our opponents aren't.

They will use any means to smear our party.

We need to be much more careful about playing the game.

People like Marc Wadsworth and Darcus Howe will use what ever means they can to both get at the Conservative party and to divide the Afro Caribbean community from the rest of society. After all, how else could Darcus claim to speak for older Caribbean migrants?

Iain Dale has this, Conservative home has this and the BBC has this.

Morgan Tsvangirai quits race to avoid resounding beating

Morgan Tsvangirai quits race to avoid resounding beating according to sources close to Zanu PF.

This is of course entirely accurate, though would have been more so if they had also used adjectives such as brutal, murderous and possibly fatal.

There is no doubt that Robert Mugabe and his regieme are doing anything to hang on to power whilst South Africa's Thabo Mbeki bestrides the stage like a paralised streak of piss.

At least some of the SADC nations are beginning to speak out, like Zambia's president Levy Mwanawasa. The BBC has this on what he has said:

But Levy Mwanawasa, president of neighbouring Zambia, said the run-off should be postponed "to avert a catastrophe in the region".

He said Zimbabwe's economic collapse was affecting the whole region, and he called on SADC to take a similar stance.

"It's scandalous for SADC to remain silent on Zimbabwe," he said.

"What is happening in Zimbabwe is embarrassing to all of us."

The BBC has this.

Is this the NHS we are paying double for?

We are now paying roughly twice what we were paying for the NHS than we were 11 years ago, yet according to this article in the Mail on Sunday a pregnant woman had to give birth in a hospital corridor after being turned away from two closer hospitals.

Emma Johnson of Brighton went into Labour, so called her local hospital the Royal Sussex county, who said they did not have enough beds. She called the next nearest at Worthing and got the same story. Then she called my local hospital in Haywards Heath, the Princess Royal. After a 40 minute car journey she ended up giving birth in the corridor. It is unclear why it was in a corridor, though presumably it was because the baby had to be delivered before she could be got into a birthing suite rather than a lack of one.

A spokesman for Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals trust said:

We do everything we can to ensure women are able to give birth in a hospital of their choice.

We are sorry that this was clearly not Miss Johnson's experience.

Occasionally if a site is very busy we have to ask mums to travel but we do this as infrequently as possible because we know it is not what mums want.

Well, the cutbacks in maternity services are due to the PCT structure more than the hospital trust so maybe they can be let off that one. That it is not what mums want is bizarre statement. I can't see anyone queuing up to be sent from pillar to post for an urgent visit to a hospital.

The sad thing about all this is that the maternity unit at the Princess Royal is still under threat with its services due to be downgraded to a maternity led unit. Had that been the case then what would have happened to Emma Johnson and her baby had she had complications? Just how far would she have had to have traveled? Could she have been half way through birth at the Princess Royal and then need an urgent surgical procedure like a cesarean?

All this of course despite the amount of money being spent on the NHS whilst there are over 10,000 less beds than 1997. Where has all the money gone.

You can support the Save the Princess Royal Hospital campaign here.

The Mail on Sunday has this.

Health and Safety madness!

Firstly when I first heard this story the other day I did not believe it.

Secondly it is not the Health and Safety executive who are behind the latest piece of lunacy but the private, and hopefully soon to be bankrupt, shutdown or laughed at so loudly that they disappear in shame, The British Standards Institute.

They are working on a new standard of tree inspection. That ought to raise some suspicion for a start. 6 people a year die due to falling trees or bits falling off them. I don't want to belittle those who have died but that is not a lot in the scale of things, 30 people die in a bath each year.

It seems that trees should be inspected once every 3 years.

Why? Which tress?

Do they include Bonsai trees, ones in parks or do they include ones on private land over which people have the right to roam.

At £70 per tree per inspection this is of course a good way for tree surgeons to make a killing but I can't see it saving lives. The number of trees that will be cut down will cause massive loss of carbon absorption, causing deaths and also there are the deaths caused in the process of cutting down a lot of trees.

The chilling quote I read was this one here in the Daily Mail:

'We are not suggesting that everyone goes out and buys the standard," he said. "But people who have a tree in their garden and want to understand what their duty of care is can at least get an idea of what the standard is.'

Just so that we understand what this means, they are trying to tie a standard that we as a country do not need to solve a problem we do not have to the term "duty of care".

The issue here is that if you owe someone a duty of care and your breach of that causes the death or injury of someone then you are liable under the laws of negligence.

In other words, if you have a tree, buy are standards to avoid being sued.

This is wrong, very wrong.

Catastrophic Slump for Gordon Brown in latest poll!

There is a poll in today's Mail on Sunday that carries some very bad news for Labour and Gordon Brown. It was carried out by BPIX.

Gordon Brown's personal ratings are so low that there seems to be no way back for him. On almost any measure David Cameron is held in much higher regard.

The main polling numbers are devastating as well. The Conservatives are on 49%, Labour on 26% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%.


The would give the Conservatives 455 seats to Labour's 150 seats and 17 for the Liberal Democrats according to Anthony Wells election calculator here.

BPIX are not currently a member of the British Polling Council so do not publish their data. This may change. Whilst that is the case though, polls like this need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

In reply to David Davis Critics

Much waffle has issued forth on this issue, so I will cut to the chase. A conversation on PoliticalBetting.com.

To this comment from Sea Shanty Irish here, I replied thus:

I could not agree less.

David Davis is so certain to retain his seat that the only question on the betting odds is whether you can beat the bank interest rates.

The real issue is how he changes the political weather on the issue.

Viscount Stansgate (My Lord Tony Benn for those not in the know) says there are two types of politician, the weathercock and the signpost.

What David Davis is trying to do is to change the weather so that he brings the weathercocks with him.

I think that is all that need be said on the matter.

Or at least I would, if Labour, led by Gordon "bottler" Brown could put up some kind of argument.

Cure for Cancer?

Some good news on a black day.

There is news of a new treatment for cancer. It seems that the body always has had a cure for cancer in its immune system but the problem is that the immune system does not see cancer as quite the threat that it is.

The treatment revolves around the idea of taking a blood sample, isolating the immune cells that attack the cancer that someone has then picking the most aggressive and cloning them until you have something like 5 billion of them. Then you inject them.

This therapy has been used on advanced skin cancer but there is no reason why it could not work on all cancers.

At the moment it looks expensive because of the large amount of work and expertise involved in each case but then things that needed that combination 20 years ago are so cheap now it is ridiculous.

There is hope!

The Telegraph has this.

Energy bills set to rise another 40% as economy is in the Brown stuff

Insiders in the energy business report that they expect to see 40% price rises before the winter.

That is going to hurt.

Meanwhile the economic outlook is very bad. Inflation is apparently 3.1%! That's a laugh. RPI is well over 4% and has been for ages. Peoples disposable income has been either static or going down for the past two years.

Its grim.

Quite a lot of this is not of the governments making, however the charge that they should have fixed the roof whilst the sun shone stands. The government built a healthy surplus in the years that it followed Conservative spending plans so that when the dot com bubble burst followed by September the 11th they had the cash to prevent a problem.

The problems were two fold. Firstly they over spent to prevent that crash, secondly they continued to spend to the point where they now have no room for maneuver at all.

It is too early to say how bad things will get, but it is clear that this government has squandered an opportunity to build in stability.

The BBC has this and the Telegraph has this.

Middle East Cease fire Number 9,994 Declared!

Diplomats hailed the declaration of a new ceasefire in the Israeli Arab conflict, between Israel and Hamas in Gaza brokered by the Egyptians.

This is potentially very good news as it lifts the overly harsh sanctions on Gaza that some regard as collective punishment whilst also lifting the rocket barrage on southern Israel, which whilst always ridiculous, almost always of no actual significance causes terror and death.

The question is, now it has just come into force, has it been broken yet.

The BBC has this.

Dead Lisbon Treaty Ratified in the Lords

The Lisbon treaty has been ratified in the House of Lords despite the fact that it is dead, after all Ireland voted no.

Fantastic. As David Cameron said at PMQ's, Gordon Brown has less spine than a bunch of jellyfish.

The BBC has this.

Gordon Brown bottles it again!

It seems Gordon Brown has bottled it again refusing to put up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by election against David Davis. It seems Rupert Murdoch has bottled it as well.

So he does not want to defend this governments erosion of liberties?

Fantastic.

Bottler.

The BBC has this.

Government lose yet more information shocker!

Well, OK, it is not shock at all is it?

This time the missing information was on a computer stolen from Hazel Blears constituency office in Salford. Thing is though that the information on terrorism and extremists should never have been on that computer in the first place as it should not have left her ministry.

So this ridiculously lax attitude to sensitive data goes right to the top. Fantastic. ID cards anyone?

The BBC has this.

The Sun backs David Davis again!

The Sun is backing David Davis again as one of its columists, Fergus Shanahan also writes a column in support of David Davis' stand.

He points out things like the 3 pensioners harrased by police for wearing protest t-shirts,

In one telling passage he says:

Davis has hit the nail on the head. We HAVE allowed ourselves to be browbeaten by fears of Islamic terror attacks into abandoning too many of our freedoms something I have said for months. Many Sun readers agree with me.

They aren’t soft on terror any more than I am.

But like me they worry that this is ceasing to be a country we feel at ease in, or the country we once knew.

A country of ID cards and databases, secret cameras, tax snoopers who can barge into your house and council spies who can fine you £200 just for dropping a crisp.

A country where any minor official can intercept your emails.

A country where any NHS manager can access your private medical records.

A country where you can be forced to give your DNA to police even though you are guilty of no offence.

And then goes on to bust the anti Davis myths:

Three myths are peddled by Davis’s opponents.

The first is that if you are against 42 days, you are soft on terror.

Rubbish. I have backed capital punishment for terrorist murderers while many of those kicking Davis are against it. How am I soft on terror?

The second myth is that weary old chestnut: "If you’ve nothing to hide, why worry?" That’s what German civilians told each other as they looked the other way while the concentration camps were being built.

The third myth is that there is massive public support for 42 days.

Yet I can find only one recent poll giving a clear majority for Brown. The internet is full of opposition to 42 days.

It seems David Davis has indeed changed the debate and hit a nerve.

Well done!

David Davis campaign website is here.

University Degrees dumbed down?

Professor Geoffrey Alderman will be giving a lecture later in which he will argue that university degrees are becoming easier as the marking schemes are becoming more lenient.

This article in the Independent broke the story last night, whilst the BBC carries this.

The allegations fall into several categories. Firstly plagiarism is not punished, secondly badly written answers are not penalised and thirdly there is a wild growth in the number of first class degrees that are being awarded.

Having spoken to university and other higher education lecturers over many years I can tell you that the standard of the input to university and higher education has been in decline. That is that A level students and their equivalent are less well versed in their subjects than they used to be. This trend started in the late 1980's but has accelerated. That the input should be declining whilst the output is rising in simply untenable.

The reason for the selling short of degrees? League tables. Brilliant.

David Davis website goes live!

David Davis for freedom website goes live, here.

Meanwhile he has written some articles on Conservative Home here, for The Evening Standard here, and of course there is his Telegraph article here.

Then of course there is Frank Fisher on Comment is Free here, about the rowback of the media.

Murdoch bottles it! He will not take on David Davis!

According to this article on the Spectator Coffee house blog Rupert Murdoch has bottled the fight as well. As noted earlier the Sun seems to be turning.

Apparently whilst Rupert Murdoch does not like David Cameron, he is fairly sure that Gordon Brown will lose the next general election.

So Gordon Brown does not have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions and neither does Rupert! Fantastic.

Is the Sun going to back David Davis?

Reports from Wapping yesterday indicate that there may have been a major traffic incident.

One bystander reported seeing a large re topped juggernaut driving at speed, saw it swerve and then all its wheels locked up, causing massive amounts of blue smoke as it did a complete U turn. The smoke from the tyres hung in the air for hours.

There was only one reported casualty, Kelvin Mackenzie, who appeared to be struck dumb. Not that anyone noticed.

Seriously there is this article in today's Sun by Trevor Kavanagh which says David Davis is right.

Choice quotes include:

Annoyingly, though, it is hard to disagree with the cause Davis has decided to embrace.

Britain IS now a nation of unaccountable snoopers with sweeping powers to pry into every nook and cranny of our daily lives.

Yet, thanks to their blundering incompetence, none of us feels safer in our bed, on the roads or walking the streets at night.

He goes on:

But along with many Sun readers, I don’t trust this Government, the police or the State bureaucracy to discriminate between keeping an eye out for our well-being and spying on us.

Information is power. And the authorities — national and local — have far too much of the stuff already.

The idea that thousands of anonymous, low-ranking town hall officials can use anti-terror laws to monitor our movements should make us sweat.

Good stuff. I wonder if this does signal a change of heart at Wapping. Not only does Gordon Brown have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions, Rupert appears not to either and he may even be changing his mind!

Hat tip to Gin on Politicalbetting.com for the Sun article.

David Davis: In his own words

David Davis wrote an article for the Telegraph on Friday explaining his actions. You can read the here.

He was also interviewed by Andrew Marr on Sunday and That interview is here.

I can understand why so many people, especially in the Westminster village are horrified. To some extent I agree. When I heard the news it felt like a kick in the guts.

However what you need to understand is the drip drip erosion of our liberties that mean that a student was arrested, charged and tried for suggesting a police horse could be gay, a 15 year old was held for accusing Scientology of being a "cult" and three pensioners were seized by police over their t shirts. All in the name of "making a safer society".

Do you feel safer? I don't. That is the point. This has gone on for the last 11 years, has grabbed great headlines in the Murdoch press, and has (previously) kept Labour's position in polls. The problem is that this has got to stop. The debate needs to be changed, and it needs to be changed now.

The Conservative party can't go into the next election being painted as soft on terror, nor can it do so advocating un British laws that are counter productive. The boil needs to be lanced, the battle joined and Murdoch defeated. (Lets face facts here, Gordon Brown appears to have no principles or courage, so the argument is not with Brown who will do what ever he thinks will get Murdoch's endorsement but with the man himself. After all, why talk to the monkey when you can skewer the organ grinder).

David Davis: Cynics to the left of him, Cynics to the right of him

And into the valley of scorn rode David Davis.

Then they joined him from the left of him from the right of him and the fight against this hideous law!

It is amazing that the Westminster bubble has been caught totally off guard by a principled politician, then even further off guard by the public response.

Needless to say I support David Davis 100%.

Government lose more papers shocker!

Well, I suppose I am not shocked.

There is something entirely useless and moribund in this government and it clearly is infecting the civil service also.

Two sets of important papers lost in a week? (Actually on the same day)

They should not have been out of the office let alone left on a train!

You could not make it up!

The BBC has this.

Zimbabwe Judge cites Habeas Corpus

The deputy leader of the MDC, Tendai Biti was arrested at Harare airport on Thursday, and has been held without access to his lawyers since.

Now a high court judge in Harare has demanded that Tendai Biti be brought before him and that the police explain why he is being held.

This is the principle of Habeas Corpus that started with Magna Carta. Makes you proud to be British doesn't it? Bit of a shame that this government is trying to get rid of it though.

The BBC has this.

Lisbon Treaty falls, as the Irish vote no!

Ireland has voted no, by 53.4% to 46.6%.

Fantastic.

Full results here.

Gordon Brown does not have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions!

It appears that Gordon Brown is not intending on fielding a candidate against David Davis. Clearly the man does not have the courage of Rupert Murdoch's convictions (for he has no convictions or indeed courage of his own).

It appears that Rupert Murdoch may have some courage and may put up Kelvin MacKenzie as a candidate instead, who has started off by calling Hull a shocking place! (See Iain Dale here)

The BBC has this.

Irish Vote No! to Lisbon Treaty!

According to Guido and Iain Dale sources at the count report the No's have it.

The question will be will this kill the constitution, or is there a plan C?

Oustanding.

The gut wrenchingly sad case of Kevin Tripp.

Today has been an emotional day for me.

I have been incandescent with rage over the current terrorism bill, both on the issue of secret inquests and 42 days. This deeply concerns me at the deepest level.

However i was smacked straight in the gut by the pointless murder of Kevin Tripp, aged 57.

It seems from reports that some 18 or 19 year old "yob" had insulted the other half of Tony Virsami so when she, Antoinette Richardson, pointed someone out in a queue he went and punched Kevin Tripp to the ground. he has now died.

There is now a 5 year old boy, who will have been waiting with much anticipation for his daddy to come home, and he will no longer. This young boy will never see his dad again.

I know how much my dad meant to me, and today I have shed many a tear for that 5 year old boy. I will pray for him.

The BBC has this.

Quentin Letts rips into Gordon Brown!

At Gordon Brown's press conference this morning Quentin Letts ripped into the prime minister!



Just look at the smirk on Gordon Brown's face!

Hat tip to the Crown Blog.

Guido also has this.

David Davis: A Man of serious courage!

David Davis has just resigned as an MP over the horrific erosion of our liberties that has gone on since this nasty Labour government got into power.

His aim is to force a by election in Haltemprice and Howden and return to the House of Commons with an increased mandate to fight against the 42 day detention without charge bill.

I must admit this came as a complete shock to me and many others in the Conservative party. David Davis is a man of serious courage.

Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats has said that they will not be fielding a candidate. Well done him.

The BBC has this, Iain Dale has this, PoliticalBetting has this.

Outstanding Mr Lee McQueen wins the Apprentice

I have to say that there have been some very good candidates for the apprentice this time around. I thought that in many ways the last 5 were outstanding.

Lee McQueen won. Well done him.

I simply do not buy the cheat rubbish that the Telegraph has put on its front page.

I will write more later. After I have calmed down a bit over 42 days.

DUP save Gordon Brown on 42 day terror vote!

The DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) saved Gordon Brown's skin today by backing the 42 day terror detention vote, which the government only won by 315 votes to 306. Had the DUP had any integrity and voted against the government would have lost by 9 votes. There were 37 Labour rebels.

I wonder why they did that? Do they seriously think Gordon Brown will be PM after the next General Election?

The BBC has this.

Update, Iain Dale has this, and is not that complimentary about the DUP.

42 Day Terror Vote close!

The vote on the terrorism part of the terrorism bill allowing detention without charge will be held tonight. Apparently it will be close. The governments latest wheeze to convince their own side is to offer compensation at the rate of £3,000 per day for any one held for over 28 days who is not charged. In total that could amount to £42,000.

How odd is that? 42 seems to be the governments answer to Life, The Universe and Everything.

What is worse however is the precedent sent. There is, as yet no compensation for anyone lawfully held, and neither should there be. People who have been unlawfully detained can get compensation but only for their losses which (shockingly in my view) have prison food and accommodation costs deducted. We are not only now bringing that concept in, but removing the loss part of the equation and instead bringing in a very high day rate.

You can just see many people up and down the land trying to figure out how long they could get locked up for, even if it is only in jest.

It seems this odd scheme has just about swung it for the government, though I hope not. In any case the measure is likely to get struck down in the Lords and then the ping pong will begin.

The BBC has this, whilst Iain Dale has this.

A Perfect Economic Storm?

Well, no economic storm is perfect, certainly not for those who suffer from it.

Economic times are looking bleak, though the hysteria of the press does not help. We have a very slow and collapsing housing market, the slowest since records began in 1978, high factory gate inflation and horrific factory input inflation.

In short we are boxed in. The slowdown in the housing market will impact on the construction and retail sectors, causing an economic slowdown, but inflationary pressures are so high that we are far more likely to get interest rate rises than cuts.

The New Statesman has this, The Telegraph this and the Guardian has this.

Gordon Brown less popular than Ian Duncan Smith?

According to that poll in the Times, Gordon Brown is also less popular than Ian Duncan Smith was at his worst in February of 2003. Ian reached 4 out of 10, whereas Gordon is now down to 3.9.

All other numbers are in sharp decline for Labour including on the economy.

Ouch, that has got to hurt!

Labour in yet another poll low!

Not really much of a story these days, as it seems to happen all the time!

Tomorrow's Times carries news of a Populus poll which has Labour at their lowest for that polster and the Conservatives with their biggest lead.

Conservatives are on 45% (+5), Labour on 25% (-4) and the Liberal Democrats on 20% (+1).

According to Anthony Wells election calculator here, that would give the Conservatives 409 seats, Labour 177 and the Liberal Democrats 35.

The question is how much pressure will this place on Gordon Brown?

Hat tip to Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting and Iain Dale also has this.

42 days: So who wants it?

Well, we heard the other day that Jacqui Smith admitted that MI5 had not asked for 42 days, and now several senior policemen have also come out and said they are against it, according to todays Guardian.

So, to recap, we have the former Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, the Director of Public prosecutions, the former Lord Chancellor, Cheerful Charlie Falconer and many other senior politicians who have actually dealt with a long term terror threat say this is a bad idea.

Yet Gordon ploughs on to the vote on Wednessday. Surely this is now holed below the water line, and crucially he seems to have made it an issue of confidence in private badgering.

Cool. Gordon to get another kicking!

100 dead in Afghanistan

We have now had 100 dead in Afghanistan. A grisly landmark.

Our soldiers are heroes.

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;

Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn

At the going down of the sun and in the morning

We will remember them.

For the Fallen, by Laurence Binyon

Labour hit new low in poll Shocker!

The latest poll for the Sunday Telegraph conducted by ICM, puts Labour at their lowest share of the vote since the polster started and also gives the Conservatives their largest lead since 1987.

The Conservatives are on 42 %, Labour are on 26% and the Liberal Democrats are on 21%. That is enough to give us Conservatives a 100 seat majority.

The article points out that the 42 day detention policy is popular with the public but the Conservatives are still considered tougher on terrorism.

In short, what ever Gordon Brown does, he loses. Cool!

Are high food prices a problem?

In the short term yes, especially for the poor, however in the long term it means that there will be money to invest in agriculture. The UN has a plan as reported on the BBC here.

For far too long various governments have interfered with food prices, subsidising here, imposing import or export duties there and we have a mess. Vast areas of agricultural land lye idle or underutilised. African farmers can't make enough of a living so move to the cities.

Higher food prices make it worthwhile to bring areas of land back into production and jobs for the rural poor in places like Africa. With a bit of luck we can also stop subsidising our farmers to grow things to dump in other peoples markets as well. This is good.

Labour losing out amongst all voters!

There is a poll in today's Independent. It is by ComRes, and shows the Conservatives on its highest share of the vote for ComRes at 44% (+4) with Labour on 30% (+4) and the Liberal Democrats on 16 (-4).

However the devil is in the detail. If you read the article, us Conservatives lead in all social groups, all ages and all areas except Scotland.

Impressive.

Much done, much still to do.

Is there anyone more vacuous than Yasmin Alibhai-Brown?

Well, apart from Polly Toynbee, obviously.

Iain Dale wrote this earlier today, highlighting an article by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown here.

Firstly I echo all of Iain's criticism of the article, its just that he does not go anything like far enough. For example, Yasmin Vacuous writes:

The sun now rises on the right and those of us on the other side are left despondent as we anticipate a prolonged winter of discontent.

Good. Your useless, and so for that matter is Labour.

We, who believe in fairness, equality, human rights and universal justice, are of no consequence.

What are you talking about? Us on the right believe in the same things, and the polls clearly do not show us Conservatives as of no consequence. We believe in those things, we just profoundly disagree about the lefts way of trying to bring them about.

Local election results show the country lurching right, in some parts even embracing the BNP. Instead of condemning the scum, Britons are instructed to "understand" why these voters are "driven" to vote for neo-Nazis. We are simultaneously warned to show no such understanding of young Muslims who are seduced by hate-filled Imams.

Sorry, is she saying that people who vote BNP are scum? I seldom find it helpful to call voters scum, besides which, most of those voters used to vote Labour. As for young Muslims being enticed my "hate preachers" and not "understanding them" I think Yasmin would be on a somewhat less sticky wicket if these hate preaching Imams were standing for election and all the young Muslims were voting for them, rather than being engaged in "other activities".

With regret however Yasmin does go on...

The coup was complete when Boris took over our London, world city, colourful home of mavericks, revolutionaries and monarchs, radicals and cultural conformists, money makers and penniless refugees, the hopeless and hopeful.

Coup? I thought it was an election, in which Ken Livingstone got more votes than he ever has in the past. Still, I stand corrected. When Conservatives win it's a coup and when Labour win its a democracy, at least on planet Yasmin.

And so power inexorably shifts towards authoritarianism, new imperial arrogance and design (bafflingly known as "liberal intervention"), fundamentalist Christian revivalism, enforced assimilation ("You WILL love and only ever praise this country"), racism and cultural protectionism, Anglo-Saxon privilege and unregulated capitalism which creates both appalling levels of wealth and poverty.

Authoritarianism? Where has Yasmin been these last 11 years? Has she not seen the constant erosion of our liberties in favour of the power of the state? What is this about a new imperial arrogance and fundamentalist Christian revival? Where is the problem with assimilation? We are not saying that we expect every immigrant family to start having Sunday roasts, but we and indeed the race relations industry have recognised that separate communities is bad for society.

And Yasmin goes on..

Banging up suspect terrorists for forty two days in detention without charge is exactly that kind of Big Boy gesture that reveals wobbly conviction, shaky commitment to those principles that make this nation a free and great democracy.

But is still incapable of working out who the authoritarians are!

Almost more depressing is the sight of black and Asian Britons following the wind blowing the Tories to victory. Boris has recruited Afro Caribbean "leaders" who believe in physical chastisement and smart young Asians who deny the existence of racism and want an end to political correctness. The more old-fashioned Uncle Toms and their female equivalents are now expediently making themselves known to the Tories and right-wing think tanks.

Anyone who disagrees with Yasmin the racist twit about politics and has colour in their skin is an uncle Tom? It is depressing to read such disgraceful nonsense.

To see such enthusiasm for a party whose members have always opposed our presence on these shores was a wake-up slap. All over now. The right has crushed the left.
By the time our time comes around again, I will be pushing up the daisies or dancing half naked in some home for sufferers of senile dementia, a blessing perhaps, to be lost in irreversible lunacy and never again to care about what happens to politics.

Well having read such rubbish as that, all I can say is fantastic.

Labour hits historic low in new poll!

A YouGov poll in today's Telegraph shows Labour have hit their lowest poll percentage since polling began in 1943, worse even than Michael Foot's worst showing.

The poll has the Conservatives on 47% (+3), Labour on 23% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1).

Anthony Wells election calculator gives:
Conservatives 450 (+252)
Labour 144 (-212)
Liberal Democrats 27 (-35)
Others 11 (-1)
Northern Ireland 18 (NC)

This of course would be devastating for Labour if these numbers were repeated at a general election. I don't think it would be quite that bad for Labour, but then I did not think we would be quite this far ahead in the polls either.

I must admit I may have to rethink my position on this. I had worked on the basis that Gordon Brown was safe as PM for a number of reasons: Labour MP's could not get rid of a second leader in one parliament and look credible (they would also face pressure to hold a general election) and that there are enough Brown acolytes around to hold the party together by fear. Accordingly I had been working on the basis of Gordon Brown being PM as we go into an election in 2010.

I may be changing my mind. Guido points out did say how much of a disaster Gordon Brown would be as PM. I think he is being that us right leaning bloggersdisingenuous. No one could have thought he would be quite this bad. Also I suspect that Gordon's band of trusted acolytes is actually dwindling fast. I also doubt they can cast as much fear in Labour MP's as the polls do. The net result is that Gordon Brown is now far from safe as PM.

Politicalbetting also has this and this.

Are house prices collapsing?

There is more doom and gloom about with the latest survey from the Nationwide about house prices. Apparently they have fallen for the 7th month in a row. (The BBC has this)

There is an interesting if gloomy article in the Guardian here which not only points out (as the BBC article does) that the rate of fall since this time last year is 4.4% the worst since 1992, but that over the last 3 months it has been falling at an annualised rated of 16%, worse than since the Nationwide started to collect this information.

Is this a good thing? Well, house prices are ridiculous, so in the long term a correction is good. In the short term however it is dire. It is going to cause people untold pain and will cause pain in the wider economy as well.

It has been obvious to me that housing had become and asset bubble for some years now, and we all know that these bubbles burst. We also know that causes pain, which is not good. The question is what can be done about it in advance? It is a hard one, but have to wonder what interest rates would have done to the housing market if they were tied to RPI not CPI. The former includes for housing costs the latter does not. Would that have curbed the excesses of the housing market, defusing the bubble before it burst?

Could Labour debt bankrupt Gordon Brown?

The Guardian has an interesting article today on the continuing financial woes of the Labour party and how it may well go bust next month. (Also see this discussion on Politicalbetting)

It goes on to point out that if it does so then members of the NEC would be liable for the debts, including the following MP's.

* Janet Anderson MP (Div. V - PLP/ELP)
* Gordon Brown MP (Leader)
* Angela Eagle MP (Government)
* Harriet Harman MP (Deputy Leader)
* Pat McFadden MP (Government)
* Dawn Primarolo MP (Government)
* Dennis Skinner MP (Div. V - PLP/EPLP)
* Keith Vaz MP (Black Socialist Society)

(Hat tip to Timothy's helpful post here on PoliticalBetting)

My understanding is that if you are an undischarged bankrupt you can't be an MP. So there could be some interesting by elections.

The other interesting point is that the GMB have indemnified their two members on the NEC. Depending on how they have done this, it could leave the GMB liable for all Labour's debt, if the indemnity is to cover all loses. If however the indemnity allows for its members to go bankrupt but then the GMB will, as their "friend" buy out their interest in their assets (such as houses and pensions) then obviously that will not be a problem.

The big question is, however, will Labour go bust?

No. I can't see it happening. No matter how much noise the creditors make something will turn up or some deal will be negotiated. What is clear though is that Labour is in no shape to fight any elections.

Prime Minister Canute orders back tide of oil price increases!

According to this article in the BBC, Prime Minister Canute (AKA Gordon Brown) has ordained that oil prices must go down.

As Guido noted, having formerly noted that oil prices had already dropped from $135 per barrel to $126, prices rose on Gordon Brown's request.

Oops.

Filth: The Mary Whitehouse story

I have just watched Filth: The Mary Whitehouse story, with Julie Walters playing Mary Whitehouse.

I have to say that it was both a very moving inspiring and funny programme.

I appreciate that Mary Whitehouse is not every ones cup of tea, neither was she mine, but I have now got a great deal of respect and admiration for her.

I had not realised how much of a campaign of personal vilification had been launched against her, and more shockingly her family.

It took a lot of courage to make the stand that she did, and organise the campaign that she did. She showed that people power can work.

She was also responsible for the concept of the watershed, which many parents are truly grateful for.

The mistake of Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes

I already highlighted Denis MacShane's opinion piece in yesterday's Telegraph .

Both Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes use that as some kind of argument to say that David Cameron should be saying that we will be cutting taxes as soon as we get in. They are both wrong for a number of reasons.

• There is a problem of political presentation. If we say we are going to cut spending then the vacuous left will equate that (wrongly) to a number of nurses or doctors. It is true that someone like Denis MacShane calling for tax cuts makes it easier and makes it harder for Labour to make the argument over nurses etc.
• Who carries out the cuts? This is important because if the management responsible for the waste are asked to make cuts then they tend to cut what is necessary over what is waste. They are only wasting money because they are incompetent anyway. As an example Margaret Thatcher tried to cut 15% from the NHS budget in the 1980's. I worked in the NHS at the time and you could see that could be done. The only problem is that the people doing the cuts were to stupid to see where to do it so cut services instead.
• We do not know how bad the public finances are going to be when we win the next general election. We already know that Labour will borrow money hand over fist to pay for their own mistakes like the 10p tax fiasco and hock the country to the eyeballs in a fascist finance scheme.

So, we need to be careful. We are promising sustainably lower taxes, which can only be achieved by being careful and thoughtful. As an example by looking to reduce family breakdowns and the associated costs to society and the tax payer that ensues. We do need to cut out waste but we need to find the right mechanisms for doing that, like fund holding GP's. The problem is that there will not necessarily be any immediate tax benefit to any of this on day one. Many policy changes will take 3 to 5 years to start having a positive effect. In the meantime we can "share the proceeds of growth".

Denis MacShane: A closet Conservative?

Denis MacShane has an interesting comment piece in today's Telegraph here. Below is a sample.

A government should be no different. Labour should not be frightened of being a party that leaves more money in the pockets of hard-working individuals, starting with those at the lower end of the income scale. A Labour government that got serious about weaning its bureaucracy and clients off dependency on the citizen's money would find itself popular again. David Cameron's only policy to curb public spending appears to be abolishing MPs' pension rights, which may be no problem when your household's net worth is in the millions. Today's Tories are not toffs in top hats, but most shadow cabinet members are very wealthy and do not experience the weekly worries of making ends meet.

Worth a read.

One thing that strikes me though is how much of it seems died in the wool Conservative thinking.

Another week, another rebellion?

This weeks rebellion on the Labour benches is over car tax, specifically the way in which tax increases for higher emitting vehicles will now be backdated to 2001.

According to this article in the Telegraph the change affects 18 million drivers, whilst the Daily Mail has this.

This seems to be causing some angst on the Labour benches, and not because a green tax is being raised, but because it is being done retrospectively.

There are a number of issues with the tax as proposed of course, like how it seems to hit quite a lot of what people think of as "family cars" and also the fact that it is more likely that a 7 year old family car is likely to be owned by someone on lower income than a new one.

I would pose the question "what will next weeks revolt be about?" but we still have the 42 days thing coming up.

Has a Prime minister ever looked so weak and inept?

£250,000 for hurt feelings, £57,000 for losing a leg?

Apparently according to this article in the Telegraph a paratrooper who was a man called Ian Hamilton who changed to a woman called Jan Hamilton has been given £250,000 in an out of court settlement by the MOD for "hurt feelings" after being required to turn up in "male uniform" to a medical.

Ah diddums.

Hurt feelings?

Paratroopers in Iraq and Afghanistan get a lot more than hurt feelings, they get injuries of all sorts, followed by the MOD doing its level best to hand out as little money as possible, despite a clear responsibility to do so yet it has caved in over "hurt feelings".

Has the world gone mad?

The Phoenix has landed!

I would just like to say well done to NASA for landing its Phoenix probe on Mars' North pole. It will be looking for water and other signs of life.

I wish the mission well.

The BBC has this.

Oil Price Crash imminent!

Oil is still continuing to rise relentlessly in price. Some fear it will hot £200 a barrel.

It might just do that but it will crash, make no mistake about that.

The reason why it will crash is that supply does in fact outstrip demand, though not by much and oil states are beginning to have trouble selling their oil. In fact according to this comment piece in the Times yesterday oil tankers are waiting in ports laden with oil awaiting a buyer whilst Iran can't sell enough so is pumping less. Prices are rising because oil speculators think it should and are buying and selling futures at inflated prices.

The oil market is yet another asset bubble. It will burst. When it does oil will return to $70 a barrel.

Conservatives gain Crewe and Nantwich with almost 50% of the vote!

The Conservative party has gained Crewe and Nantwich from Labour!

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Monster Raving Loony	The Flying Brick	236	0.57
Labour	Tamsin Dunwoody	12679	30.5
Independent	Gemma Garrett	113	0.27
UK Independence	Mike Nattrass	922	2.22
English Democrats	David Roberts	275	0.66
Liberal Democrat	Elizabeth Shenton	6040	14.53
Green	Robert Smith	359	0.86
Cut Tax on Diesel and Petrol	Paul Thorogood	118	0.28
Conservative	Edward Timpson	20539	49.41
Independent	Mark Walklate	217	0.52
Spoiled ballots		67
totals		41565

Crewe and Nantwich: Conservatives to get 50%?

this was raised as a possibility earlier but it seems that even Erick Pickles thinks we can get 50% of the vote.

If so, that is outstanding!

Crewe and Nantwich turnout 58.2%!

This is a staggering turnout for a by election.

If the turnout is 58.2% that is impressive.

Wow.

Crewe and Nantwich: Labour's dire predictions!

I have heard from a Labour MP that he thinks the Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be grim.

Ben Brogan has heard similar with some Labour people telling him that they expect the Conservatives to get over 50%.

This is of course slightly nuts as there are 10 candidates and that makes it almost impossible to get over 50%.

The other thing people are watching for is if the swing is higher than Eastbourne in 1990 (20%), because not only did the Conservatives win the seat back at the next general election but also won a majority in the House of Commons. The thinking seems to be that they would win the seat back at the next general election. That analysis misses the way that we got rid of Mrs Thatcher and a few hated policies.

Crewe and Nantwich By Election:My prediction

Well, I predict a Conservative win, but then so does just about everyone else apart from Eric Pickles who is working on the basis that this is an uphill struggle. Fair enough, he is in charge of the campaign and complacency is the quickest way to lose an election.

The big question is what will the fall out be like. Well here is my view:

1. A Conservative win, even by one vote breaks a duck.

2. If the Conservatives achieve a swing of 15% then Labour are in trouble and set to lose the next election.

3. If the Conservatives get a swing of more than 20% Gordon Brown will be dragged out of number 10 by the men in grey suits and shot in the street.

You do have to wonder what place Labour and the Liberal Democrats will come though, and what percentage of the vote they will get.

I sense that die hards of either party will turn out regardless and so they must get at least 10% each, however they have both done immense damage to both their local activist base and core vote by the way they have run their campaign. We shall have to see how bad it gets.

Paddy Power calls Crewe and Nantwich for the Conservatives!

The Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has, according to this article on politicalbetting called the Crewe and Nantwich by election for the Conservatives and paid out on those bets already.

Personally I think this is nuts and unhelpful but then if it is correct then the bookmaker gets a lot of kudos.

There has been a lot of money placed on this by election, pretty much all on the Conservatives. The bookmakers stand to lose a fortune if we win tomorrow.

Is Alan Milburn about to mount a leadership challenge?

Rumours reached me last night that Alan Milburn, the former health Secretary and strategist of Labour's 2005 general election campaign is to challenge Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership this weekend, presumably on the basis that Labour will get absolutely smashed in the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

My source for the rumour is a reliable Labour insider, who has dual sourced it himself. Furthermore this thread on Politicalbetting shows that other Labour insiders are talking about it as well.

I do not know how successful such a bid will be, but it really does look like ferrets will be fighting in a sack.

Obama the Messiah

Well, perhaps that is over egging it a bit but according to this post Barack Obama is pulling in massive crowds lined up on every available vantage point to hear the man speak.

He is a truly inspirational speaker, and more importantly, whilst of African decent is not a traditional "victim" black politician. He will have the ability to lead.

I still want Senator John McCain to win, and think he may well do so, but one thing is sure, Barack Obama will one day be President of the United states of America.

When Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will be involved in a presidential race like no other for decades which will reinvigorate American politics and will raise turnout. All very good for Democracy.

Labour poll position still dire

It looks like Labour's poll woes continue despite the £2.7 billion bribe and yet another relaunch.

The Sunday Times has news of a Yougov poll with the the Conservatives on 45% (+1), Labour on 25% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1). (Please note the changes are on the last Yougov Sunday Times poll, not the last Yougov poll which had the Conservatives 26% ahead)

The Independent on Sunday has news of a 17% lead in a Comres poll. It places the Conservatives on 43% (+3), Labour on 26% (NC) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (+1).

It should be noted this is the highest percentage that Comres has given the Conservative party. It in combination with other polls shows that Labour is drifting in the mid twenties which should come as a shock to them as that is lower than Michael Foot achieved in 1983, with a manifesto described as the longest suicide note in history.

Things do not look good for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich either with this poll in the News of the World indicating a decisive Conservative victory. It places the Conservatives on 45% compared to Labour on 37% with the Liberal Democrats on 14%.

Draft Queens Speech, my reaction:

Well, Gordon Brown's draft Queens speech was of course a rehash of broken promises and policies lifted from Conservative manifestos and policy documents.

The big question is however, what will be in next weeks relaunch?

The answer is of course, that there will not be one next week, because that will be when Labour lose the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The re-launch will be the following week.

So what will be in that relaunch?

I have no idea, but then, neither has Gordon Brown, he has enough trouble dealing with the panics of today.

The Sun says this whilst the BBC has this.

Tamsin Dunwoody denies Gordon Brown is an asset!

Tansin Dunwoody, Labour's PPC in the Crewe and Nantwich by election has been caught on film refusing to say whether Gordon Brown is an asset to the Labour party or not!



Hat tip to the Crown Blogspot here.

If Gordon is being deserted by candidates before they become MP's what hope has he got?

Is Darling's £120 bung enough?

In what is frankly outstanding news Alistair Darling the Chancellor has given all basic rate tax payers £120 per year by raising personal allowances by £600. Apparently this will not affect higher rate payers.

This does compensate all those who lost from the 10p tax issue, but it does not give all of them their maximum loss. However it does sort things out now. Where it does fall down though is compensating an a lot of people who actually gained by the abolition of the 10p tax band. Suits me though.

So is it enough?

The short answer is yes and no. If it was to buy of Labour rebels led by Frank Field then yes it appears it is. Frank Field even apologised to Gordon Brown in the house for getting personal over the weekend.

If it was in the hope of not losing Crewe and Nantwich, it has not got a hope. For a start the manner in which the concession was dragged out of the government speaks of a government that is aloof, slow and difficult. Secondly the electorate can bank this now and still give the government a good kicking. In short, the Crewe and Nantwich by election will still show a Conservative win.

The BBC has this.

Housing market worst for 30 years!

In fact, the worst it has been since the last time we had a Labour government in 1978, and this particular set of records began, according to the Independent.

The assertion comes from a regular survey of what members of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors are saying about rising or falling house prices. They have not seen a market as bad as this since Sunny Jim Callaghan was Prime ministers and we were the sick man of Europe.

If you were hoping for cheery news in your news papers this morning you will be disappointed.

On a more serious note, I do hope they are wrong. We do not need a major house price collapse, as that will cause major problems for many. What we could do with is a market that is flat.

Frank Field's latest attack on Gordon Brown

Frank Field gave an interview to the BBC's World Service last night, which was repeated on the Today program this morning.

Alan Johnson, Minister for Health was interviewed on it before they went on to discuss social care.

You can listen to it here.

I have to say Alan Johnson's reply sounds so plaintive. Please please stop attacking Gordon Brown!

Is this Gordon Brown's worst week since the last one?

Has Nasrallah played his last card?

Hezbollah are on the streets of Beirut, taking control of the whole of the western half, including Sunni areas.

Hezbollah's guns have been turned on Lebanese of all varieties who do not agree with them.

This is crucial because all militias were disarmed after the Taif accords of 1989 except Hezbollah who kept theirs as they were a resistance movement to Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon which only finished in 2000. The basis on which they kept their guns was that they were for resistance against Israel and would not be used against Lebanese. Even then of course the fact that they had the guns even if they were not to be used against Lebanese does not mean they are not able to intimidate.

Prior to the 2006 Israeli Hezbollah summer war pressure was growing
on Sheik Nasrallah to disarm, and the cynics* amongst you may wonder if that war was not engineered to maintain an excuse for keeping the guns.

After the war Hezbollah could sell themselves as being victorious and so ensure that they kept their guns. It worked. Ehud Olmert fell straight into Nasrallah's trap.

The thing is that Nasrallah has done what he said he would not do which is to use those guns which were held solely for resistance against his own people. (By that I mean Shia, Sunni Druse and Christian who are not on his side). he has broken his agreement and now the political pressure will grow to disarm Hezbollah. It will take a lot of time, but it will happen. Legitimate resistance is no longer an excuse as those guns have now been misused.

*Well, to be fair you don't need to be much of a cynic to think that.


The BBC has this.

Conservatives in 26% poll lead shocker!

According to PoliticalBetting Yougov have just released a poll showing the Conservatives having a poll lead of 26%.

Yougov is described as a controversial Internet pollster despite getting closer to actual results time and time again.

Any way, this article on PoliticalBetting has the following numbers:

Conservatives 49% or 462 seats
Labour 23% or 137 seats
Liberal Democrats 17% or 23 seats


Leading to a Conservative majority of 274, according to Anthony Wells swing calculator.

I have to say these are outstanding figures, and make Michael Foot's 1983 election defeat look like a stunning victory.

Police should harass young thugs says Home Secretary

I have to say I despair when I read of things like this in the Guardian and this on the BBC.

Jacqui Smith, the alleged Home Secretary has made a speech to an audience who work in the field of anti social behaviour.

It seems she wants the police to harass young thugs. This seems reminiscent of David Blunkett's threat to turn up outside a fireman's house who had been accused of football hooliganism in Portugal.

Harassment is a crime, made so by the Protection from Harassment act 1997. Presumably therefore this is not quite what she means though according to the BBC article persistent offenders will be targeted. Fair enough, if you think that person A keeps on breaking the law, watch him till he does and then arrest him. Keep doing so till learns.

The plan however seems to include for all sorts of other things as well. If there is someone in a household who is "persistently anti social" then they will check to see if you have paid your council tax, road tax have a car insured and even check if you have a TV licence. I do not which to defend people who break the law, but at least now we know what all those databases are for.

If you do not cooperate with the state, then they will dig and keep digging until they have something. Scary stuff. However you may feel that is fair enough as we are not talking about Mother Teresa here. It is not fair enough. If you happen to be the brother of a criminal it is not right that the police should single you out for special treatment. You have a right to be treated equally before the law.

Of course all this rampant populism fails to deal with the key issues which are that the police have far too much paperwork to do, even more if they arrest a youth and therefore not enough time to put feet on the ground to persistently arrest persistent offenders. Instead we now see the scary side of the database state, where if the state does not like you for one reason it will find many other ways of picking on you.

Democratic Primaries go on, and on, and on..

And on, and on, and on and on.....

It seems that Hillary Clinton just does not get it. She simply can't win the nomination.

So why has she vowed to carry on?

She will win the primaries next week, and even the week after, but so what. They will not be enough.

I have heard of one Democrat strategist on channel 4 outlining some sort of way she could win, reliant on super delegates coming to the conclusion that Barack Obama isn't winning the demographic that Hillary Clinton is, and hers is more important. In short, it seems they are saying that white working class voters have shown by voting for Hillary that they will not vote for a n.... n... gentleman of African extraction.

Lets take that load of tosh head on. Firstly it is quietly raising the race card, which is ridiculous, secondly it seems to me that they are saying that those who vote in Democratic nominations for Hillary Clinton are less likely to vote for Barack Obama at the general election.

Where is the evidence for this? Not only that, but if Hillary Clinton conceded and backed him, she would surely bring over all but the bigots?

I have to say Barack Obama is such a powerful speaker that if he gave a speech at a Klu Klux Klan meeting, I would expect him to have a 50/50 chance of getting a standing ovation. He is that good at it.

The reason she will not and has not therefore becomes questionable. Is she a racist? Or is she after something else, like guaranteeing the Vice President spot?

The idea that she is after that spot is odd to say the least. She will be 61 in October, and if Barack Obama wins the presidency and then gets a second term that means she will be 69 before she gets another crack at being the presidential nominee. Can you see the USA jumping back a generation? I can't. There will be another nominee making waves.

However a joint Omaba Clinton ticket could be the Republicans dream ticket because without having to utter a word they will get the support of both racists and misogynists whilst still having Hillary Clinton around to energise the Republican base like no other politician can which is fantastic for my betting position as I win biggest if Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination as president and John McCain wins as president.

The BBC has this.

Will Indiana and North Carolina settle the Democratic nomination?

The short answer is no.

Barack Obama has won North Carolina but it seems Indiana is still too close to call, according to this from the BBC.

I don't see Hilary Clinton conceding regardless.

However if Obama wins Indiana then the pressure on Hilary will grow. She has ignored it so far though.

Crewe and Nantwich by election: Who is going to win?

The short answer is I suspect not Labour.

The Conservatives clearly won the local elections there on the 1st of May pushing Labour into 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats. That in my view puts us as clear favourites though the Liberal Democrat by election machine is good.

However both Labour and The Liberal Democrats seem to have irritated their base. The former by undue haste in moving the writ for the by election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral then parachuting her daughter, a Brown loyalist, in the latter by talking rubbish about how our candidate is not local because he ran the New york Marathon.

More later, meanwhile the BBC has this.

Captain of the Titanic reassures crew

Gordon Brown, the captain of the Titanic has given several interviews today in which he sought to reassure his crew that despite hitting that massive iceberg on Thursday that he could steer the Labour party safely to another election victory. Others were a bit more sceptical.

Meanwhile Matt in the Telegraph a few days ago has this cartoon which really says it all.

Dogs in mangers to be humanely euthanised!

This is the big shock news from Boris Johnson's speech after signing his acceptance of office. If you keep any dogs in mangers, you have been warned.

You can view the whole speech here.

That said he does seem keen to build a government of all the talents. It will be interesting to see what next week brings.

Is it just me, or has the BBC been a pile of excrement?

Well is it just me?

From the ridiculous Stalin to Mr Bean stuff, the cold winter bit or the wild west show over the Liberal Democrat vote that Jeremy Vine did last night to the lack of rolling results as they came in for the London mayoral elections the BBC has been a large pile of fetid urine soaked manure of the most odious kind.

One person who texted me insisted that it was because they are all lefties. I say no, it is because they are all a complete bunch of merchant bankers. It has nothing to do with political bias, it has all to do with the sort of bankers in the news departments of the BBC.

In order to get up to date results I decamped to my local pub and watched it on Sky news. There was no sound, but then there was no Jeremy Vine making a spectacle of himself. What there was in the bottom right hand corner of the screen was up to date results which were missing from the BBC.

That Boris Speech: Echos of Thatcher.

in victory and it echoed I have to say I thought Boris' acceptance speech was fantastic. MagnanimousMargaret Thatcher's speech when she took office in 1979, echoing Saint Francis of Assisi's prayer.

Boris said:

Where there have been mistakes we will rectify them,
where there are achievements we will build on them
where there are neglected opportunities we will seize on them.

Outstanding speech. I should add that he started by thanking all those who voted against him many of whom he said he had met over the last month, not all of whom were entirely polite.

Ken Livingstone also delivered a gracious speech.

Well done all.

Can I just say this.

The voting is over. It is excruciatingly hard work to lose an election,
(well, it is if you are trying to win) let alone winning one, however the work for the winner has only just begun.

I am personally confident that Boris Johnson will be a fantastic Mayor of London and will deliver results even if Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh is his diplomatic adviser. He may say some things that will throw seasoned hacks in to spin, but that is just Boris.

Ken Livingstone wins more votes in London than he has ever done!

However, Boris Johnson won more and so is Mayor of London.

It is a fantastic result.

Brian Paddick also won more votes for the Liberal Democrats than they have in the past.

This is a win for the Conservative party, but a massive win for democracy as voters have turned out in much larger numbers than they have in the past.

Liberal Democrats lose Liverpool then regain it this afternoon?

Rather amusingly Labour took enough seats of the Liberal Democrats to put Liverpool into No Overall Control. Then this afternoon they signed up an independent Labour councilor and regained control.

Bizarre but true. See the BBC here.

Local Elections: Conservatives outstanding win!

The local elections have produced an outstanding victory for the Conservatives, gaining 256 seats.

The last time these elections were held was a very low ebb for Labour. In reality it would have been possible for Labour to claw back some net gains, certainly with the Brown bounce last summer. All that is now gone and labour have had a right kicking losing 331 seats.

The BBC have calculated the national share of the vote and that puts Labour in third place on 24% of the vote with the Conservatives on 44% and the Liberal Democrats on 25%. This is the worst Labour result for 40 years.

The BBC has this.

Conservatives gain Southampton!

Fantastic.

Also Nuneaton and Bedworth!

Looks like a good night for the Conservatives.

Turnout high in Conservative areas

Various reports on blogs are indicating that turnout is high in Conservative areas and low in Labour ones. See Iain Dales blog here and politicalbetting here.

The mood for a change in London also seems strong. Boris Johnson looks like he is going to win.

Boris to win London Mayoral Election!

Well, that is my prediction. Boris Johnson MP will beat Ken Livingston in the race to be the next mayor of London.

That said the question will be by how much. According to this thread on politicalbetting.com the last YouGov poll is much tighter than before.

To be honest I don't know what the margin will be but what I do know is that there seems to be a mood for a change. Labour voters are demotivated and we have the wind in our sails.

On the wider picture I suspect we will pick up over 100 seats in the council elections which will be a real bonus because 2004 when these seats were last contested was already a very low water mark for Labour. To give you some idea of how bad that was, if these elections were held with the same positive sentiment that existed for Gordon Brown between June and September last year then Labour would have gained at least 100 seats. No one thinks they will have any net gains now.

Voter Fraud to mar London and local elections

Those of us who follow politics know about voter fraud and how easy it now is. This will no doubt be a factor in some elections on Thursday.

The Labour government brought in universal postal votes in order to rig the voting system in their favour however at the expense of introducing much fraud.

Well there is a new report out by the Joseph Rowntree foundation that backs that up. Having said that I am not sure it tells us anything we did not already know. The Times has this article here.

Gene Therapy working! 18 year old has his sight fixed.

One of the interesting things about modern times is genetic testing.

In its early days this led to fears that if you had a genetic test which said you were very likely to get say cancer, you then would not be able to get life insurance.

However now we have the upside of the testing which is gene therapy. It is now being tried on a rare genetic condition that causes eyesight to generate over time until it is lost.

Well, the Independent has a headline "The blind man who was given the gift of sight by gene therapy" which may be over egging it a little as he still had some residual sight so was not blind though he would have become so in time.

What is now going to happen is the techniques and understanding of how to replace defective genes in situ will grow in leaps and bounds, which may well lead to curers for many diseases which are at there heart genetic, and where they don't lead to a full cure they may at least stop the progress of the diseases.

The BBC has this.

Humphrey Lyttelton dies at 86

I have to wonder if he would say it was not a moment too soon.

Humphrey Lyttelton was and I suppose still is a legendary jazz musician, but I remember him for "I am sorry, I haven't a clue" a Radio 4 show that I have been a fan of since I was knee high to a grasshopper.

I will miss this great talent on the one hand but celebrate his life on the other.

Alas, I can't think of any funny innuendo.

The BBC has this whilst wikipedia has this.

He will live in my heart forever, and will always be remembered with a chuckle.

Tory poll calamity!

The latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph places the Conservative party only 18% ahead of Labour.

Labour poll watchers insist this is a disaster for David Cameron, and he should be at least 250% ahead if he expects to win any kind of election.

One Labour insider described it as "only a flesh wound" and invited Cameron to come close so that he could bite his ankles.

Office of Government Commerce: Is this the funniest logo you have ever seen?

As noted by Dizzy, the Register and Daniel Finkelstein's blog on comment central the Office of Government Commerce has just conducted a major re branding exercise which will see a new logo appear soon.

Like the university that was for a time known as the Central University of Nottingham and Trent, it must have seemed like such a good idea at the time to the big wigs far away from reality.

Without further ado, here is the new logo, though tipped on its side.


Frankly I think it suits them!

Is Quentin Davies looking to jump ship again?

I have just watched PMQ's again, which was knockabout stuff today, and as noted by Guido, and Three line Whip, you can see Quentin Davies appearing on the Conservative side of the House of Commons again.

The best shot I saw was about 11 minutes in as the camera shows David Cameron and the Speakers chair in a long shot, just in the middle is Quentin Davies.

As Guido has noted before, you would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh!

10p tax U-turn: jam in October?

Apparently the government is going to review the effects of Gordon Brown's last budget which removed the 10p tax band, and do something about it in October, albeit backdated to the beginning of the tax year.

Brilliant.

So if you have no, or little money you can starve till October. Not only that but you get the impression that someone will have to apply for something where the take up will be less than 100%.

The BBC has this.

Hillary Clinton keeps in the race

Senator Hillary Clinton has won by enough in Pennsylvania to keep in the race for the Democratic party nomination.

The bottom line is that this is good for Senator John McCain who I personally hopes wins in the end.

The Democrat nominees are ripping their party apart. I have to say that Hillary Clinton is the most unattractive candidate I have seen in a long while. There is something about her that is so relentlessly unpleasant.

The BBC has this.

Will the 10p band be Gordon Brown's last stand?

Apparently there has been much comment on this. Politicalbetting has this which quotes from this article by former Brown cheerleader Jackie Ashley.

It is not looking good for Gordon Brown or Labour. Even if they do get rid of Brown there is no one in Labour who could recover their electoral position.

The BBC also has this.

How Much?

Apparently we are now all going to bail out the banks to the tune of £50 billion, or possibly double if this story from the Times is correct.

What is more the scheme as laid out gives a helping hand to the irresponsible banks whilst at the same time being about as popular as a bucket of cold sick.

Well done.

The BBC also has this.