Inheritance taxes cut for couples?

Apparently one of the chancellors wheezes in the pre budget report to announce a doubling of the inheritance tax threshold for couples,

Does he mean married couples who pay no inheritance tax when one spouse dies?

Wow.

How generous!

Unless of course he means couples who are neither married or in a civil partnership.

The BBC has this.

Spin is dead! Long Live Spin!

I have to say I was impressed with Gordon "bottler" Brown's promise to end spin when he came to power, and more crucially to announce to parliament before the press.

I thought it was brave.

And a hostage to fortune...

Because I knew he just could not keep to it.

And so it has come to pass. We had the Iraq announcement last week roundly rebuffed and derided in the media as it was both during another party's conference, and not to parliament as he had explicitly promised.

Well today we expect the Pre Budget Report. Well, we do now, it was going to be next week, but an election was going to be announced just afterwards, so it had to be brought forward, but Brown bottled it so could have moved it back but I digress.

This will of course be announced to parliament first, except of course that several papers have had some form of advance notice.

We have this in the FT, this in the Guardian on closing loopholes for private equity, and surprise surprise, a tax on non doms! (No I am not surprised either) whilst the Telegraph had this on Saturday about what may be in the small print on council tax going up lots to cover yet more spending on the NHS, despite the fact that Labour seem to have wasted much of what they have spent already.

There was of course a time when a Chancellor would have to resign if this sort of detail of a budget or report were leaked before hand, but not apparently in the spin free era of spin free spinning New Labour.

Gordon Brown trying to spin that he is not a spinner?

I have not been able to catch Gordon Brown's press conference, but have read Iain Dale here, Dizzy thinks here, and Guido here.

I have to laugh at the way Gordon is somehow trying to insist that he is not a spinner!

The fact is he has been caught out, and that is that!

Brown Bottles it whilst making the crassest excuses!

I have to say I am amused by Gordon Brown bottling an election, and the guff which is coming out of his camp as a result.

Gordon is, according to his interview with Labour patsy Andrew Marr, (To be aired in full at 9.00 AM this morning on the BBC) not going to call an election now because:

I want to do is show people the vision that we have for the future of this country in housing and health and education and I want the chance, in the next phase of my premiership, to develop and show people the policies that are going to make a huge difference and show the change in the country itself.

It was nothing to do with the polls, because Labour would have won!

Ed Milliband was out spinning a similar line as well.

Are they serious? Do they expect us to believe this? If that was the reason for not going now then it was the reason for ending speculation last week, the week before, or more likely never letting it start at all.

No, this has been political gamesmanship by team Brown, and it has massively blown up in their faces. It has to be said though, it is going to get worse. By giving an exclusive interview they have managed to alienate everyone else in the media.

The press are not king to Brown today either.

YouGov Poll shows Conservative lead of 3%

A YouGov poll in another paper tomorrow (The Sunday Times I believe) shows the Conservatives in the lead having destroyed Gordon Brown's bounce. Politicalbetting has the numbers here.

The figures are
Conservatives 41% (+5 on last poll +9 on a week ago)
Labour 38% (-2 on last poll -5 on a week ago)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-2 on last poll -4 on a week ago)

Now that is some volatility. From an 11 point deficit last week to a 3 point lead this week.

On Anthony Wells calculator that would give Conservatives 294 seats, Labour on 316 and the Liberal Democrats on 13.

New Poll shows that Gordon Brown bottled calling a GE because he knew he would lose!

Gordon Brown may say what he likes, but Gordon Brown bottled calling an election for one reason and one reason alone, and that is he would lose.

According to an ICM poll in tomorrow's News of the World Smith the Home carried out in key marginals Labour would have lost 49 seats to the Conservatives depriving them of a majority in parliament and losing many ministers including JacquiSecretary.

The poll puts the Conservatives 6 points ahead in the marginals, at 44% to 38%.

Hat tip to Iain Dale here, via Ted on politicalbetting.com.

Snap General Election ruled out!

Yes, Gordon "bottler" Brown has ruled out a snap general election according to Nick Robinson here, and will make a statement soon.

Nice to know that Gordon Brown can write about courage, because he certainly does not have any.

England beat Australia in Rugby World Cup Quarter finals!

A sensational result as England beat Australia 12-10.

The England pack showed both strength and resolve and they pushed the Australian pack all over the place. My understanding is that the Australians thought all they needed to do was turn up to win. Oh how wrong they were!

The BBC has this.

Election Speculation continues. Will it be November the 1st?

Well, election speculation continues despite Labour's lead in the polls being slashed. Fair enough, you would not want to make the decision on the basis of one or two polls.

The problem here is that the polls will not settle down for two weeks, when we will have a better idea of what they are doing. Right now it is all volatility and froth.

So what happens now?

Well, the Guardian and others report that the pre budget report has been brought forward to Tuesday when the Chancellor Alistair Darling will be in the house from 3.45. He will also cover the public sector borrowing requirement.

Some of the figures are going to be bleak. Growth figures are going to be scaled back, and we are going to get the usual admission that the tax take was not what Gordon thought it would be, so borrowing figures are going to be higher. Coupled with a lower growth rate that will make the next budget tight. If there are giveaways then they will taxes elsewhere to balance the books, as well as increased borrowing.

So will there be an election? The media are all convinced that Gordon will make a decision this weekend on the basis of private polls in marginals. In short, he will go if he thinks he can win it.

The interesting thing is what is the media narrative going to be. It seems to be that Gordon is seriously considering going now because of fears that the economy is about to go belly up. What is more, from April the 10p tax band goes, hitting lots of low income earners. That is not going to be good either. The higher income earners who would have benefited from the basic rate drop are probably paying higher council tax bills and mortgages so wont feel that in their pockets either.

If there is an election it will be tight, no matter what anyone says. If the public think Gordon is cutting and running before bad news they may well punish him now.

It always was monumentally daft to think of having an election around now, because we just will not know what public opinion truly is for a while, what is more that was always going to be the case. New leader honeymoon followed by conferences, did anyone seriously think the polls were going to be stable?

The Guardian has this, whilst Nick Robinson has this.

Oh, and the BBC has this on election pressure!

Tomorrow's Guardian ICM poll, Its Neck and Neck!

Well, there you have it. The polls are in (well some of them are) and the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck!

Conservatives 38% (+5), Labour 39% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats 16% (-4).

Anthony Wells predictor gives:
Labour 337
Conservatives 254
Liberal Democrats 32
Labour majority 27

On the Baxter predictor that gives:
Labour 346
Conservatives 269
Liberal Democrats 6
Labour majority 42
I can't see the Liberal Democrats dropping to 6 to be honest, so it will be interesting to see.


Ultimately I can't see an election now. If there was, it would be ll to play for.

Having said that, this is no shock to me, it is merely a repetition of events.

Guardian shows Labour Poll lead slashed!

Apparently tomorrow's Guardian's ICM poll will also show Labour's poll lead slashed to show similar numbers to the YouGov poll though figures are not yet available.

When they are (and I get back from playing pool) I will post an update.

Hat tip to Iain Dale who has this here.

Labour lead collapses to 4 points!

According to channel 4 the Labour lead has collapsed to just 4%.

Labour are on 40% (-4), Conservatives on 36% (+3), Liberal Democrats on 13% (NC).

It has to be said the 13% for the Liberal Democrats is not that credible, I expect them to take some of Labour, making this a very close run thing if there were an election now.

David Cameron's speech gets good headlines!

Well, there you have it. Gordon Brown reads out a rehash of speeches primarily from unsuccessful Democrat Presidential candidates by Bob Shrum, which goes down OK, but is later slamed for plagiarism, whereas David Cameron goes unscripted and gets great headlines.

I did not watch the speech, opinions vary, but I think it may have been a tad long, and did not move the world, but Gordon Brown is a naff speech maker, so Cameron looked good by comparison.

The important thing however is this, the media reception. The sound bites looked good on TV, and the papers in the morning look good as well.

The Times has this, The Telegraph has this, The Daily Mail this, the Guardian this and the Independent this.

Gordon Brown the Control freak trying to hide the plagiarist?

You will remember the story about Gordon Brown and the plagiarised speech by Bob Shrum the serial backer of all losers?

Well, according to Michael White of the Guardian the allegation has been made that Gordon Brown rang the editor of the Times 6 times that day over that headline. This has not been denied by Number 10, despite many opportunities to do so.

Does Gordon think we live in Burma?

Gordon Brown's cynical stunt backfires!

Gordon Brown's announcement of 1,000 troops home by Christmas was in fact in part a re announcement. 500 had been announced in July. Something like 250 are here already.

What is worse for him though is that the story is now one of cynical manipulation. That is what seems to be making the headlines, as is his lack of telling Parliament first as promised.

Good. It was a cynical stunt by a cynical #####

The BBC has this, Nick Robinson has this including a bit on the broken promise.

Gordon Brown breaks promise to Parliament

I note that Gordon Brown promised to make all important announcements to Parliament.

He has broken that promise by announcing a troop withdrawal from Basra to the press whilst Parliament was not sitting.

Gordon Brown = broken promises.

The BBC has this.

Support our Heroes!

Because the government certainly isn't.

The Armed services have a joint rehabilitation facility at Headley Court which helps severely injured personnel recover.

It now needs £5 million to improve facilities, and is asking for donations according to this article in the Daily Mail. General Sir Richard Dannatt is leading the appeal.

You can visit the appeal's website here or call 0845 673 1760 to make a donation.

So why are civil servants doing political work?

Well, you will no doubt have heard that George Osbourne has announced to planned tax cuts, by raising the threshold for the tax on death, otherwise known as inheritance tax to £1 million, whilst also eliminating stamp duty for first time buyers for houses up to £250,000.

These adjustments will cost around £3.5 billion, or 0.7% of the total size of the state. In terms of ordinary people, think of taking home say £20,000 in which case we are talking about a budget change of £140.

Now this is to be funded by changing the rules for non domiciled tax payers. These are people who mostly live here but are resident abroad for tax purposes. They have to go through quite a few hoops to get that status, so presumably it makes sense to do so.

The Conservative party will levy a fee for this status of £25,000 per year. We estimate that there are of the order of 150,000 such people, and if all paid that would raise £3.75 billion. You can read more, and indeed watch the speech here.

Labour has of course launched into attack mode on this. Benedict Brogan has been getting some interesting government press releases. Apparently civil servants at the treasury have been digging up the numbers to trash the Conservative claims:

What strikes me though is the scale of the Labour spin operation tonight, which is designed to turn a "Tories promise you tax cut" story into a "Tories rocked by funding row" tale. I have in my inbox a press release from the Labour Party Press Office, in which Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, claims: "Today George Osborne made a £3.5 billion tax commitment. Treasury analysis shows it is impossible for him to raise the money he needs to pay for this commitment from his proposals on residence and domicile. Initial costings by the Treasury show that George Osborne's proposal would raise a maximum of £650m, leaving George Osborne at least £2.9 billion short. So George Osborne cannot afford the promises he is making. He cannot afford to cut inheritance tax."

Benedict Brogan wants to know what civil servants are doing working on party work, and so do I.

The other thing of note is this:

The treasury have claimed to have no figures on how much non domiciled people earn abroad, yet when it becomes a political issue, within hours they claim they do.

Is this really the end of spin in government?

The Government is listening!

Apparently to your every phone call.

Yesterday's Mail on Sunday carried the story that the government has passed legislation that requires telephone companies and Internet service providers to keep records of when and where telephone conversations and emails were sent. This will include tracking data on where mobile phones are.

This information is to be made available to all and sundry in government from NHS trusts to local councils.

There will apparently be safeguards. These wont actually work, because the current ones certainly don't. As I highlighted in this article there is current concern over the way state databases are used to locate errant family members in to commit so called "honour killings". The same information can and is used by criminal gangs.

So to the asinine statement "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear" there are two responses. The first is that what ever the state monitoring that is brought in, the fear is what a different state would do with it, and then there is the query over what other people will use it for?

This can and does happen. Now. This is not some theoretical risk.

Madeleine McCann: Police clueless: Official!

Apparently according to this mornings Daily Mail, Portuguese police have come up with the theory that Madeleine McCann did not die of an overdose nor was she murdered by Kate McCann on one of here trips to check on the children but died because she fell down the stairs, presumably because she had not been sedated enough.

The police have said that all they need to work out now is how they disposed of the body.. Really? That surely has been the question all along. Just how do you hide a body under severe police and media scrutiny in a hot country foreign with which you are not familiar, in summer when bodies tend to start smelling fast if not refrigerated?

The short answer is that the Portuguese police have not got a clue, are not looking for one, and their only way out is to blame the parents.