Tuesday, April 10, 2007

How low can Labour go?

What with all the bad news in the press around Labour, and indeed Yougov's brandindex ratings on Gordon Brown and Tony Blair falling like a stone (see here) you have to wonder what the next sensible poll is going to show?

By sensible poll I generally mean Yougov and ICM.

The bad news has been deafening over the last few weeks. Any poll carried out in the next few days has got to show serious damage to Labour. Personally I think they could go below 30%, and even as low as 28%.

I don't know how much the Conservatives will score, but if labour are below 30% and the Conservatives on or above 40% that will cause serious waves in Labour's ranks.

Bring on the next poll I say!

6 comments:

Maggie Thatcher Fan said...

Benedict, Is your hunch about the polls as a result of input from the doorstep whilst leafleting ?I am about to start leafleting myself, I'll let you know how I get on!

Benedict White said...

Maggie Thatcher Fan, It is more a hunch based on just how bad the news coverage has been and peoples reaction to it.

Maggie Thatcher Fan said...

You sent me trawling the web, 28% would be the lowest Labour rating since opinion polls began, not even Michael Foot sank that low(29%) (May 87 was 29% as was Oct 2006) according to my research. 28% would be about rock bottom, unless you think it could actually fall further.....

Benedict White said...

Maggie Thatcher Fan, Is that in opinion polls? they have not been below 29%?

I see. I think they are likely to hit 29%, and with all the flak may just go below that.

Maggie Thatcher Fan said...

Yes Benedict,in Opinion polls, I'm not sure about actual General Elections or Local elections, Time for you to pop over to PB.com and ask Andrea !!!!!. She seems to know pretty much everything one might want to know about voting and elections!!.

Benedict White said...

Maggie Thatcher Fan, *cough* Andrea is Italian and MALE.

No the lowest in a GE they have gone is with Michael Foot at 29%.

(locals worse but then they are never national)