According to this poll in the Times today. It puts Labour on 29% (-1) Conservatives on 37% (Also -1) and the Liberal Democrats on 20% (+2).
According to Martin Baxter's election predictor here, that gives a seat break down of 321 seats for the Conservatives, 243 for Labour and 53 for the Liberal Democrats. That puts the Conservatives 5 short of an overall majority.
Last Tuesday, in this article I predicted that Labour would go below 30% and they have. They have hit their lowest poll rating ever and I still predict that they can fall from here. The only question is can the Conservatives capitalise on Labour's woes.
Mind you I am still waiting for my favourite pollsters ICM and YouGov to produce polls as they will make more interesting reading.
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3 comments:
If the suppressed poll done by the Herald, mentioned on Iain Dale's site then they've slipped even lower in Scotland - somewhere closer to 25%
Wow they are less popular than Celtic fans at Ibrox. Part of the issue is that the Tories have a toff as an alternative and that does not go down too well with much of the UK.
Richard Havers, I am aware of that poll, but it is not by a transparent pollster so I would not bet on it.
Colin, I hear what you are saying, but the fact is that Cameron is going down well in large parts of the country.
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