The foot and mouth outbreak has now been confirmed.
However of more concern is the possibility that foot and mouth has spread to a market in Lanarkshire. With a bit of luck this will be a false alarm. If it is not then foot and mouth could have already spread far and wide.
On the plus side, local foot paths have already been closed and animal movement restrictions put in place. So at least the right things seem to be happening.
The BBC has this.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
New Foot and Mouth Outbreak near Pirbright!
There have been reports of a new outbreak of foot an mouth, this time, some 15 miles from Pirbright and a it further away from the original outbreaks in early August.
DEFRA have ordered a precautionary cull of the herd affected and immediately put in place a control zone. Reports indicate a national ban on the movement of animals will follow shortly.
This is the worst news for farmers, and needless to say Pirbright will be high on the list of suspects.
My understanding is that Merial's operation there halted production of foot and mouth based vaccines when the last out break happened whilst the Institute of Animal Health carried on its work. As yet I have not heard that Merial have re commenced production. That leaves a suspect list of one, and may raise questions over budget cuts at the Institute.
The BBC has this.
DEFRA have ordered a precautionary cull of the herd affected and immediately put in place a control zone. Reports indicate a national ban on the movement of animals will follow shortly.
This is the worst news for farmers, and needless to say Pirbright will be high on the list of suspects.
My understanding is that Merial's operation there halted production of foot and mouth based vaccines when the last out break happened whilst the Institute of Animal Health carried on its work. As yet I have not heard that Merial have re commenced production. That leaves a suspect list of one, and may raise questions over budget cuts at the Institute.
The BBC has this.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
The McCann's, the backlash begins.
It is with a huge amount of regret that I see this story developing.
I noted that Gerry McCann asked for privacy and all the news outlets sat around talking about how that was what they asked for, looking for new comments rather than taking the hint.
The story moves on now, with leaks, allegedly from the forensic service in Birmingham, that the "DNA" from the hire car hired 25 days after her disappearance is definitely Madeleine's and must have been from her body.
Apparently there are two samples, one an exact match and one a partial match.
Surely someone has to stop this DNA train and ask to get off and ask what it is based on, where is it leading and what does it prove?
I hold no particular candle for the McCann's, but then I wish them no ill will either. I have watched this situation unfold with sympathy but little comment. However, I do have to wonder if they are not about to find out what happens if you appeal to the general publics better nature for too long which is that it will come back and bite like a rabid dog.
The Telegraph has this.
I noted that Gerry McCann asked for privacy and all the news outlets sat around talking about how that was what they asked for, looking for new comments rather than taking the hint.
The story moves on now, with leaks, allegedly from the forensic service in Birmingham, that the "DNA" from the hire car hired 25 days after her disappearance is definitely Madeleine's and must have been from her body.
Apparently there are two samples, one an exact match and one a partial match.
Surely someone has to stop this DNA train and ask to get off and ask what it is based on, where is it leading and what does it prove?
I hold no particular candle for the McCann's, but then I wish them no ill will either. I have watched this situation unfold with sympathy but little comment. However, I do have to wonder if they are not about to find out what happens if you appeal to the general publics better nature for too long which is that it will come back and bite like a rabid dog.
The Telegraph has this.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Is the surge working in Iraq?
The short answer is yes though it still has the feel of too little too late.
Sunni tribes are also coming on board but that is more to do with Al Qada being a better recruiting sergeant for the USA than the USA is currently being for them in Iraq. (Which is very much down to the change in tactics brought in by General Patraeus who clearly knows what he is doing and seems to have learned a lot from the British way of doing things whilst we have in part forgotten but have not been able to do because we don't have anything like enough troops to do the job.)
For more on Iraq see here.
Sunni tribes are also coming on board but that is more to do with Al Qada being a better recruiting sergeant for the USA than the USA is currently being for them in Iraq. (Which is very much down to the change in tactics brought in by General Patraeus who clearly knows what he is doing and seems to have learned a lot from the British way of doing things whilst we have in part forgotten but have not been able to do because we don't have anything like enough troops to do the job.)
For more on Iraq see here.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
If the car is so important why are the McCann's still driving it?
Is broadly the headline and import of this article in today's Mail on Sunday.
God question I'd say. Either the car is vital evidence in which case it should have been impounded or it isn't in which case the latest allegations are a load of old twaddle. There is of course a third possibility, namely that the police investigating the crime are in fact the Key Stone Cops.
Meanwhile, the McCann's are heading home. I suspect that their other children really miss home, as well as their sister Madeleine.
God question I'd say. Either the car is vital evidence in which case it should have been impounded or it isn't in which case the latest allegations are a load of old twaddle. There is of course a third possibility, namely that the police investigating the crime are in fact the Key Stone Cops.
Meanwhile, the McCann's are heading home. I suspect that their other children really miss home, as well as their sister Madeleine.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
The Strange Case of Madeleine McCann, Gerry and Kate suspects?
When this story originally broke i did not blog about it because I had not got much to say that was not being said elsewhere.
We now reach an odd stage in proceedings though. It appears that forensics has found traces of blood in a hire car the McCann's hired some 25 days after Madeleine went missing. I have also heard that this is supposed to be Madeleine's blood.
Here I have a mental problem. Let us assume, as it seems the police are, that Madeleine did indeed die by accident (or perhaps design) at one of her parents hands on the night of May the 3rd.
We are then asked to believe that the one responsible got the collusion of the other to cover it up. Reading between the lines, this would mean finding somewhere to hide the body for 25 days, with the police buzzing around presumably looking for it, in which time it was bound to start smelling a bit unless refrigerated.
So there you are n Portugal, with a child in the fridge or freezer whilst all the police are looking for her, for 25 days? Then you moved the body?
The logistics of both hiding and moving a body are difficult. Also it has to be noted that people who have just been responsible for someones death and then hide the body do not behave normally. Are the Portuguese police saying they just did not notice this?
If true, why did they hand around for so long and organise such a media storm to keep the Madeleine story in the papers. It just does not make sense. (Yes I know you can argue it was an attempt to cover things up).
It is just bizzare.
I wonder if they have looked at the complete hire history of the car from the day Madeleine went missing until they found the blood? That may turn up something somewhat more credible.
I also find it hard to believe that two people would be as close as Gerry and Kate McCann appear to be if one of them had been responsible for the death. It would cause much arguments between them surely?
The BBC has this.
We now reach an odd stage in proceedings though. It appears that forensics has found traces of blood in a hire car the McCann's hired some 25 days after Madeleine went missing. I have also heard that this is supposed to be Madeleine's blood.
Here I have a mental problem. Let us assume, as it seems the police are, that Madeleine did indeed die by accident (or perhaps design) at one of her parents hands on the night of May the 3rd.
We are then asked to believe that the one responsible got the collusion of the other to cover it up. Reading between the lines, this would mean finding somewhere to hide the body for 25 days, with the police buzzing around presumably looking for it, in which time it was bound to start smelling a bit unless refrigerated.
So there you are n Portugal, with a child in the fridge or freezer whilst all the police are looking for her, for 25 days? Then you moved the body?
The logistics of both hiding and moving a body are difficult. Also it has to be noted that people who have just been responsible for someones death and then hide the body do not behave normally. Are the Portuguese police saying they just did not notice this?
If true, why did they hand around for so long and organise such a media storm to keep the Madeleine story in the papers. It just does not make sense. (Yes I know you can argue it was an attempt to cover things up).
It is just bizzare.
I wonder if they have looked at the complete hire history of the car from the day Madeleine went missing until they found the blood? That may turn up something somewhat more credible.
I also find it hard to believe that two people would be as close as Gerry and Kate McCann appear to be if one of them had been responsible for the death. It would cause much arguments between them surely?
The BBC has this.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Foot and Mouth report out and blames poor maintenance
The report into the foot and mouth outbreak is out and it blames poor maintenance on the pipes handling waste.
It should be noted that these are the responsibility of the Institute of Animal Health, not Merial.
Under funding is probably the cause because people knew the pipe was an issue.
So it's all Gordon Brown's fault!
The BBC has this.
Regrettably DEFRA have not emailed me a copy of both reports as promised. Hmm..
It should be noted that these are the responsibility of the Institute of Animal Health, not Merial.
Under funding is probably the cause because people knew the pipe was an issue.
So it's all Gordon Brown's fault!
The BBC has this.
Regrettably DEFRA have not emailed me a copy of both reports as promised. Hmm..
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.75%
Which is hardly a surprise as there are still major concerns over a credit crunch and banks being unwilling to lend each other money over night.
There is still the occasional flurry in the stock markets which clearly have the jitters over banking stocks.
This does leave the Bank of England with a problem though. At the moment it appears to be boxed in between the possibility that raising interest rates may cause a large crisis and not being able to raise them to deal with inflation even if it wanted to.
These clearly are not the best of times, they are not the worst either but it feels a bit like driving along a cliff edge at speed. One mistake and you are over the edge.
The BBC has this.
There is still the occasional flurry in the stock markets which clearly have the jitters over banking stocks.
This does leave the Bank of England with a problem though. At the moment it appears to be boxed in between the possibility that raising interest rates may cause a large crisis and not being able to raise them to deal with inflation even if it wanted to.
These clearly are not the best of times, they are not the worst either but it feels a bit like driving along a cliff edge at speed. One mistake and you are over the edge.
The BBC has this.
Food Additives Bad for your Children Shocker!
News we will have an announcement on the Religious practices of the Pope.
All papers (Well, quite a few) carry the story on the front page. The Daily Mail has this, The Times has this and this, whilst the Guardian has this, this and this and er.. this.
Usefully though we do get a list of the dodgy E numbers, which are:
What is clear is that sometimes you only observe effects when these additives are used in combination, though Quinoline yellow E104 is banned in the USA, Australia, Japan and Norway because of its effects on children.
The big issue which also comes out from these stories is why has this not been looked at before given that the first research into the issue was 30 years ago.
All papers (Well, quite a few) carry the story on the front page. The Daily Mail has this, The Times has this and this, whilst the Guardian has this, this and this and er.. this.
Usefully though we do get a list of the dodgy E numbers, which are:
- Tartrazine E102 Lemon yellow dye
- Carmoisine E122 Red food dye
- Sodium benzoate E211
- Ponceau 4R E124 Synthetic red dye
- Quinoline yellow E104
What is clear is that sometimes you only observe effects when these additives are used in combination, though Quinoline yellow E104 is banned in the USA, Australia, Japan and Norway because of its effects on children.
The big issue which also comes out from these stories is why has this not been looked at before given that the first research into the issue was 30 years ago.
Foot and Mouth, It was a broken pipe says BBC!
And there I was working on the basis that DEFRA would get the report out to all media outlets at the same time.
It seems that the foot and mouth virus was found in a broken pipe which during flooding could have spread it above ground to be carried out on tyres. The virus itself should not have been live in the pipe which it is believed leads from the Merial laboratories initial chemical treatment plant to the Institute of Animal Health's secondary treatment plant.
Apparently though the BBC also learns that the tests to fully differentiate the versions of the strain between Merial and the Institute of Animal Health still has not finished. The cynic in me has to wonder why.
I await the full report with interest.
The BBC has this.
It seems that the foot and mouth virus was found in a broken pipe which during flooding could have spread it above ground to be carried out on tyres. The virus itself should not have been live in the pipe which it is believed leads from the Merial laboratories initial chemical treatment plant to the Institute of Animal Health's secondary treatment plant.
Apparently though the BBC also learns that the tests to fully differentiate the versions of the strain between Merial and the Institute of Animal Health still has not finished. The cynic in me has to wonder why.
I await the full report with interest.
The BBC has this.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Is DEFRA sitting on the Foot and Mouth report?
One of the problems with dealing with government particularly when you are in an opposition party is that you get dreadfully cynical.
The Health and Safety Executive have completed their second report, which could well point the blame at either Merial Animal Health or the Institute for Animal Health, on Friday and handed it to the Department for Farming and Rural Affairs, (DEFRA).
They have not as yet published it. This sort of thing does tend to make me a little cynical. However they have promised to publish it by the end of the week with the "Sprat" report by Professor Sprat of Imperial College into bio security at Pirbright. That is not too long to wait so perhaps I should quieten my cynicism and just wait.
The Health and Safety Executive have completed their second report, which could well point the blame at either Merial Animal Health or the Institute for Animal Health, on Friday and handed it to the Department for Farming and Rural Affairs, (DEFRA).
They have not as yet published it. This sort of thing does tend to make me a little cynical. However they have promised to publish it by the end of the week with the "Sprat" report by Professor Sprat of Imperial College into bio security at Pirbright. That is not too long to wait so perhaps I should quieten my cynicism and just wait.
The Retreat From Basra. Is it a defeat?
Well, it does depend on how you look at it.
If the victory condition was clearing out Ba'athist forces and liberating Basra, then job done, but that was done in 2003.
If the victory condition was to leave the place in some sort of viable state then this is a abject failure. The Sun leads with the headline "The Lions of Basra" and rightly so, the failure was not of our troops making but our politicians, and indeed American ones. (Article not available online yet)
Our troops have been brave. Very brave. They have also fought well. The trouble is there has never been enough of them and they have not had the support they need.
We have never had the troops on the ground to do the job properly. We also don't have the troops on the ground in Afghanistan either, but that is a whole other disaster waiting to happen.
The Times report here highlights the mixed feelings of people on the ground. Some welcome the "end of the occupation" whilst others are in fear not knowing who will protect them from the militias.
Let us make no mistake here. We chose to go into both Afghanistan and Iraq. Practically we did have to go into Afghanistan, but we have resourced neither sufficiently to do the job.
If the victory condition was clearing out Ba'athist forces and liberating Basra, then job done, but that was done in 2003.
If the victory condition was to leave the place in some sort of viable state then this is a abject failure. The Sun leads with the headline "The Lions of Basra" and rightly so, the failure was not of our troops making but our politicians, and indeed American ones. (Article not available online yet)
Our troops have been brave. Very brave. They have also fought well. The trouble is there has never been enough of them and they have not had the support they need.
We have never had the troops on the ground to do the job properly. We also don't have the troops on the ground in Afghanistan either, but that is a whole other disaster waiting to happen.
The Times report here highlights the mixed feelings of people on the ground. Some welcome the "end of the occupation" whilst others are in fear not knowing who will protect them from the militias.
Let us make no mistake here. We chose to go into both Afghanistan and Iraq. Practically we did have to go into Afghanistan, but we have resourced neither sufficiently to do the job.
Populus Poll puts Labour and Conservatives neck and neck
The Times reports a Populus poll conducted over the weekend which places Labour on 37% (-2) the Conservatives on 36% (+3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+3). This, according to the report would give Gordon Brown a 20 seat majority. It is headlined "Voters end debate on snap election"
I can see him going for that, but then I have always thought that we would go the whole length of the Parliament and I have not seen anything to shift my view, not even the Brown bounce which I expected to end, and it almost has.
To be fair I do not expect a Conservative lead in the polls until October, and polls will fluctuate a little after that showing neck and necks and small leads for each until late November when I expect a steady but small Conservative lead, and if David Cameron and team do the job right, that lead will grow between now and the general election in May 2010.
In an effort to pad the result out there is comment on both marginal seats and the south. The problem here is that even over a number of polls the samples in these areas are small and not balanced and weighted in the way they are for the whole poll leading to all sorts of inaccuracies.
I can see him going for that, but then I have always thought that we would go the whole length of the Parliament and I have not seen anything to shift my view, not even the Brown bounce which I expected to end, and it almost has.
To be fair I do not expect a Conservative lead in the polls until October, and polls will fluctuate a little after that showing neck and necks and small leads for each until late November when I expect a steady but small Conservative lead, and if David Cameron and team do the job right, that lead will grow between now and the general election in May 2010.
In an effort to pad the result out there is comment on both marginal seats and the south. The problem here is that even over a number of polls the samples in these areas are small and not balanced and weighted in the way they are for the whole poll leading to all sorts of inaccuracies.
Monday, September 03, 2007
Citizens Juries?
Much has been made of Citizens Juries. Tony Blair talked about them and Gordon Brown is now.
The plan seems to be that there will be groups of "citizens" who sit on a group and chat about policy areas.
The questions are:
The plan seems to be that there will be groups of "citizens" who sit on a group and chat about policy areas.
The questions are:
- Who picks the jury?
- Do they get paid?
- Isn't Parliament supposed to do this sort of thing?
The Unacceptable face of the Conservative Party..
Has been invited to advise the Labour government on terrorism.
Patrick Mercer was described by Labour as the unacceptable face of the Conservative party, after this storm hit him, in March this year costing him his job.
Now they want his advice!
Amazing.
How politics changes.
Patrick Mercer was described by Labour as the unacceptable face of the Conservative party, after this storm hit him, in March this year costing him his job.
Now they want his advice!
Amazing.
How politics changes.
Brown Bounce evaporates!
Conservative home carries reports of two polls, one by ComRes (formerly the pollster known as Communicate Research) puts The Conservatives and Labour on 36% each whilst it has the Liberal Democrats on 15% (unbelievably low). Presumably this poll is or was to appear in the Independent but alas it is not there yet.
Also it carries news that GMTV commissioned a YouGov poll giving Labour on 38%, the Conservatives on 35% with the Liberal Democrats on 15% again (with the same caveat).
I always thought the brown bounce would disappear. That is just the way politics works. What has irritated me though is the number of people panicking. Shame on them.
Also it carries news that GMTV commissioned a YouGov poll giving Labour on 38%, the Conservatives on 35% with the Liberal Democrats on 15% again (with the same caveat).
I always thought the brown bounce would disappear. That is just the way politics works. What has irritated me though is the number of people panicking. Shame on them.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Everyone wants a Referendum except Gordon Brown!
It seems that on the question of the EU Constitution or treaty if you prefer everyone wants a referendum. Pro Europeans want one, even the leader in today's Observer wants one running the headline:
This cowardly refusal to make the political case for Europe
The problem is this however. There is no case or desire for the Europe that Europe's political elites want to build. All over Europe people want an European union, but they don't want one that interferes quite so much and they certainly do not one with an overarching identity.
Want they do want is free-ish trade and co operation between governments where possible.
Someone needs to make the case for not driving headlong into a European super state, and in part that is what David Cameron is doing by leaving the EPP (European Peoples Party) grouping in the European parliament and forming a new group of right of center parties less keen on massive integration.
This cowardly refusal to make the political case for Europe
The problem is this however. There is no case or desire for the Europe that Europe's political elites want to build. All over Europe people want an European union, but they don't want one that interferes quite so much and they certainly do not one with an overarching identity.
Want they do want is free-ish trade and co operation between governments where possible.
Someone needs to make the case for not driving headlong into a European super state, and in part that is what David Cameron is doing by leaving the EPP (European Peoples Party) grouping in the European parliament and forming a new group of right of center parties less keen on massive integration.
Gerry McCann close to breakdown due to press pressure, Express reports
It is hard to make this sort of story up, but according to the Sunday Express Gerry McCann is close to a nervous breakdown because of all the media speculation. So what do they do?
Speculate some more!
To be fair to the Daily and Sunday Diana though, the report does say that Gerry is close to breaking point over what is being reported in the Portuguese media.
Speculate some more!
To be fair to the Daily and Sunday Diana though, the report does say that Gerry is close to breaking point over what is being reported in the Portuguese media.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Jackson's scathing criticism of the USA in Iraq
The Telegraph carries an article today about the forthcoming auto biography of General Sir Mike Jackson, called "Soldier" after 45 years in the army.
The article carries some of the criticisms in his book. Specific areas of complaint are:
I have my own take on the mess in Iraq which covers more areas, here.
You can read more about Iraq here.
The article carries some of the criticisms in his book. Specific areas of complaint are:
- The pentagon was put in charge of post war Iraq.
- That there was no effective plan for post war Iraq, as Donald Rumsfeld had thrown the State departments one in the bin.
- There were not enough troops to bring order. General Jackson estimates we should have had 400,000 yet even in the surge it is proving difficult to reach half that number.
- Disbanding the Iraqi army was a bad idea.
I have my own take on the mess in Iraq which covers more areas, here.
You can read more about Iraq here.
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