Thursday, May 22, 2008

Crewe and Nantwich By Election:My prediction

Well, I predict a Conservative win, but then so does just about everyone else apart from Eric Pickles who is working on the basis that this is an uphill struggle. Fair enough, he is in charge of the campaign and complacency is the quickest way to lose an election.

The big question is what will the fall out be like. Well here is my view:

1. A Conservative win, even by one vote breaks a duck.

2. If the Conservatives achieve a swing of 15% then Labour are in trouble and set to lose the next election.

3. If the Conservatives get a swing of more than 20% Gordon Brown will be dragged out of number 10 by the men in grey suits and shot in the street.

You do have to wonder what place Labour and the Liberal Democrats will come though, and what percentage of the vote they will get.

I sense that die hards of either party will turn out regardless and so they must get at least 10% each, however they have both done immense damage to both their local activist base and core vote by the way they have run their campaign. We shall have to see how bad it gets.

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