Friday, May 30, 2008

Labour hits historic low in new poll!

A YouGov poll in today's Telegraph shows Labour have hit their lowest poll percentage since polling began in 1943, worse even than Michael Foot's worst showing.

The poll has the Conservatives on 47% (+3), Labour on 23% (-3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+1).

Anthony Wells election calculator gives:
Conservatives 450 (+252)
Labour 144 (-212)
Liberal Democrats 27 (-35)
Others 11 (-1)
Northern Ireland 18 (NC)

This of course would be devastating for Labour if these numbers were repeated at a general election. I don't think it would be quite that bad for Labour, but then I did not think we would be quite this far ahead in the polls either.

I must admit I may have to rethink my position on this. I had worked on the basis that Gordon Brown was safe as PM for a number of reasons: Labour MP's could not get rid of a second leader in one parliament and look credible (they would also face pressure to hold a general election) and that there are enough Brown acolytes around to hold the party together by fear. Accordingly I had been working on the basis of Gordon Brown being PM as we go into an election in 2010.

I may be changing my mind. Guido points out did say how much of a disaster Gordon Brown would be as PM. I think he is being that us right leaning bloggersdisingenuous. No one could have thought he would be quite this bad. Also I suspect that Gordon's band of trusted acolytes is actually dwindling fast. I also doubt they can cast as much fear in Labour MP's as the polls do. The net result is that Gordon Brown is now far from safe as PM.

Politicalbetting also has this and this.

No comments: