Saturday, May 12, 2007

Is this why John Reid did not run?

The Daily Mail has this article on its website saying that John Reid may have chosen not to run for the Labour leadership, and indeed resigned, because he pestered Dawn Primarolo on more than one occasion, apparently when drunk.

This all happened a long time ago, and as a result Reid gave up alcohol all together. I do have to wonder if this is the real reason but nothing else has surfaced yet.

It does go to show that in politics, your enemies have long memories.

Dawn Primarolo is also known as Red Dawn, and works in the treasury, masterminding such brilliant successes as IR35 and Tax credits.

Hat tip to Andrea on politicalbetting.com for the link.

Poll shows Gordon Brown would hand victory to Cameron

There is a poll out in tomorrows Sunday Times showing that Labour have closed the gap on the Conservatives, giving the Conservatives 38% (-1) Labour 34% (+2) and the Liberal Democrats on 15% (-1). using Anthony wells swing calculator that leads to a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

However if asked who they would vote for if Gordon Brown was leader of Labour and David Cameron leader of the Conservatives then the numbers are Conservative 42%, Labour 32% and presumably the Liberal democrats unchanged. That gives the Conservatives a majority of 32 seats!

Oh happy days!

Mind you we will have to wait a while to see the actual trend under Brown.

hat tip to Iain Dale, who has this.

Gordon Brown and the new political landscape

Well, it looks like Gordon Brown is going to take over as Labour leader and soon. The political landscape is changing. There was that silly autocue gaffe yesterday during his launch speech. If it is a one off then it won't matter, but he has also been filmed picking his nose and with one trouser leg in his socks.

If things start to go slightly wrong then these images may come back to haunt him.

Gordon kicked off his campaign with many promises. His loyal ranks clearly loved it, and were delving into the meaning of it all. Quite amusing to watch really.

What is clear is that Gordon is bringing many of his own side with him, for now at least. That has got to be good for Labour, but we will have to see how long that lasts.

My impression is that your average voter does not warm to Gordon though. That might change. We will have to see. I suspect not but I may be wrong.

When I looked through some random local election results last week I did notice something of a trend though. It seems Labour are piling up votes in their safe seats. Given that we know how people voted nationally that means that they are also losing them in marginals which is where it counts.

Many think the current boundaries favour Labour because they need less votes to get an MP elected. The reason for this is in part that turnout in Labour's heartland safe seats is appalling. It would be richly ironic if at the next election the balance shifted, Labour got its safe vote out, but lost in all the marginals handing the Conservatives a victory. It may well work out that way because I suspect Gordon Brown is far better at appealing to his own party than the wider electorate.

Once Tony Blair is finally gone, it will be a lot easier for the Conservative party to win elections.

PFI Problems give Head Teachers headaches

Apparently the Association of School and College Leaders has issued statements highlighting the problems PFI deals are causing schools both in terms of management time resolving issues and cost.

I can't help but wonder how this all came about. When this government came to power it promised to provide new schools everywhere. Well that is fine as far as it goes, and some certainly needed work or replacing but not all did. I can't help but wonder if a headlong rush to build has caused some problems.

However there are other problems with the way PFI schools are working out. In some I have heard of the walls are made of plasterboard and the ceilings are suspended. Fine in an office block but not so good in a school where children will from time to time be a lot rougher with their surroundings.

The BBC has this.

Stop Whinging!

I have just had an interesting evening out at my local pub. I discussed politics with a few people, who are both interested, have a party view, and more importantly vote.

Good.

I also had a chat with someone who appeared to be passionate about what the problems were, but via a combination of not being on the electoral roll, thinking that multinationals controlled the world and other forms of general excuse finding was doing nothing about it.

Well all I can say is STOP WHINGING and get involved.

Politics is hard work. Very hard work. It took me two days to stop dropping off to sleep all the time, after the election campaign. I didn't do it for my health, and I certainly did not do it for the money. Neither did my opponents, who also worked very hard (much harder than they have had to in the past). I did it because I felt that the world and this country needed fixing so I got involved.

So don't whinge, get involved. There are so many ways you can do so now as well. For a start you can start a blog. You can read. You can talk to people. You can join a political party, or just help one in your area. If you get involved you can build influence.

Just don't come and tell me that it is all a done deal, you can't be bothered to vote, either on polling day or with your consumer power, but that you have an opinion.

You can make a difference.

Stop whinging.

Your country needs you.

Friday, May 11, 2007

Drinking at home good for children

Last month Alcohol concern issued a press release saying how underage drinking was on the rise, and went further calling for parents who give under 15's alcohol to be prosecuted.

This at the time seemed to me to be illiberal badly though out nonsense. If you look at a lot of European countries their children learn to drink responsibly at home, normally at the dinner table. Binge drinking in those cultures is not a big problem.

A lot of politicians asked about the proposal thought it was rubbish too. Good.

However Liverpool John Moore's University has just carried out a study, one of the findings of which was that drinking at home with parents tends to lead to more rather than less responsible drinking whilst drinking behind the bushes in the park leads to more irresponsible drinking. I can't say I am surprised. Dealing with underage drinking by becoming more authoritarian seems doomed to failure.

The BBC has this.

How big will the Brown bounce be?

So Gordon Brown will apparently launch his leadership campaign today, which I have to say is not the biggest political shock in history. He will win the Labour leadership, quite possibly unopposed.

When he gets the job of Prime minister, will he get a poll bounce?

The short answer is yes. The eulogies for Blair will have lifted the whole Labour party in the polls. What is more interesting is where he is picking up those votes, which I think are in Labour's heartlands, and how long will the bounce last?

My hunch is that Labour will get a bounce of about 3 or 4%, and that will last for about 3 months. However the votes will be in the wrong places to win an election.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

John Prescott to go!

I know it is not a surprise, but I have to say I am pleased! Not only do I think he has been bad for many things, like the Pathfinder initiative, demolishing peoples homes, frequently unnecessarily, or endless meddling in planning, the railways and local democracy.

The thing that really gets to me is that he is a buffoon. That is not a class thing either. Their are plenty of "working class" MP's from all sides, including Labour who are good representatives of the country. John Prescott just made me look silly.

Interest rates rise to 5.5%

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England has put up interest rates again to 5.5%, which I have to say is no surprise given that inflation reached 3.1% on the CPI measure and 4.8% (a 16 year high) on the RPI, which led to Mervin King, the Governor of the Bank writing a letter to Gordon Brown explaining why inflation was so far about target.

We should also remember that the last quarters repossession figures were the highest since 2000, at 17,000 per year. This interest rate rise is not going to help.

Still with a bit of luck it will halt the rise of inflation. We will see.

The BBC has this.

Tony Blair to stand down on the 27th of June

Which looks like a winner for all those who bet on Quarter 2!

Well, I have to say I am pleased in some ways, because whether you like or loath tony Blair, the one thing you have to admit is that he was a vote winner. I don't think Gordon Brown is. So our biggest mountain in terms of winning votes appears to be leaving the stage.

I will wait until he has actually gone to give my full view of Tony Blair.

The BBC has this.

Tony Blair is to go, but when?

OK, we all know that Tony Blair is going to go, but the question is when?

Or rather more specifically when will he actually cease to be Labour leader, and Prime Minister.

The question is important because today we are told he will lay out his timetable. Will me resign as Labour leader, or announce his intention to resign at some time in the future?

This is not an academic debate, because of the way the Betfair betting exchange has managed to phrase the bet on when Tony will go. In essence it is when Tony ceases to be Labour leader.

I suspect he will do no more than say when he is going.

Once he has actually gone, and I am sure he can't make any come backs I will comment on Tony Blair.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

The Government of the living dead!

Whilst I have not yet had a chance to watch all of today's Prime Ministers Questions I am amused by the clips shown on the news bulletins.

My favourite quote is David Cameron listing the potential outgoing ministers, citing how Gordon Brown's spin doctors have been wondering around handing out current ministers jobs, and going on to describe the cabinet as the "government of the living dead"

It has to be said that during the exchange, it was obvious that Tony Blair enjoys this sort of banter, as does David Cameron.

I wonder how Gordon Brown will fair? After all he normally hides away on bad news days, has lost his temper with George Osbourne and normally has a team of junior ministers to answer all the awkward questions?

Those in Labour (and the Liberal Democrats) who are looking for a saviour for Labour say he will do well.

The rest of us have our doubts!

Tax Credit Fiasco gets worse

According to a report issued by the Public Accounts committee of the House of Commons losses through fraud and overpayment. Apparently another £1.4 billion is likely to be written off.

What actually concerns me more though is the number of people who have no clue, because the system is opaque in the extreme, how much it is they are supposed to be getting. They could after all be getting more or less than their entitlement. If they are underpaid, then they have 3 months to claim the underpayment yet if they are overpaid the money can be claimed back for 6 years! That does not seem fair to me.

It does however get worse. When people have been overpaid, they get new payments stopped or worse still get money demanded with menaces. If you are on a tight budget the last thing you need is a debt collection firm on your back collecting money you did not know you had borrowed, who can effectively deduct money at source with out consulting you.

The net result is that many families are going through difficult times because of administrative errors, not knowing from one week to the next what their income is, whilst many on working tax credit are not claiming at all.

It is clear that at best the system needs a major shake up and simplification.

The BBC has this.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Cameron called on to resign!

Yes, senior figures in the Conservative party have called on David Cameron to resign immediately following dreadful local elections results.

One insider was quoted as saying "500 gains would have been fantastic, but 911 frankly is just not good enough! Cameron needs to go!"

Meanwhile the leadership of Ming Campbell has been praised, having led the Liberal Democrats to a much hailed victory losing 246 seats. Labour's council boost, losing 504 seats has shown that the incoming leader Gordon Brown is sure to lead Labour to a stunning 4th term!

(Ed.. Hold on, this is the sort of drivel that lefty journalists like Poly Toynbee write isn't it? It could have been on the BBC!)

911 seats gained by Conservatives in local elections!

After the declaration of Breckland district council and Warwick district council the Conservatives have gained 911 seats, and Labour have lost 504!

What a fantastic day!

Hat tip to Stewart Jackson MP for pointing out the Warwick count had finally finished, on politicalbetting.com.

Labour loses 500th seat!

Yes all wards have been counted in Breckland District council, where Labour had 8 councilors and now have 3, that is a net loss of 5 taking Labours total loss of councilors to 500 with Warwick still to finish!

Also Conservative gain at least 2 in Breckland so have gained 900 with one council left to count!

Hat tip to Andrea on Politicalbetting.com for watching the numbers as they came in!

Will the Breckland and Warwick counts push the Conservatives over 900 gains?

Counting has restarted in Breckland and Warwick district councils, having been suspended on Friday as the new electronic counting machines broke down.

These two councils look like swinging to the Conservatives and we only need a net gain of two to break the 900 barrier on the night!

The drama is a bit delayed, but it is still there, sort of!

Is it just me, or is the World Snooker final going on a bit?

I know that the snooker is good, particularly the safety play, but I am beginning to lose the will to live watching the John Higgins versus Mark Selby final.

Last night it looked like it would be wrapped up fairly quickly, as John Higgins was annihilating Mark Selby 12 to 4 but today Mark Selby started by pulling six frames back in succession. However the pace of the game has slowed to a crawl!

Update 00:54

Well, John Higgins won!

I have to say some fantastic play, but I was having trouble keeping my eyes open!

Still, Mark Selby looked like he was in free fall yesterday and he came back an awful long way!

Monday, May 07, 2007

So what future for the Liberal Democrats

It is interesting to observe the musings of the Liberal Democrats as they ponder what was a bit of a stuffing.

In Mid Sussex the Liberal Democrats seemed to have a plan, which someone may have communicated to Indigo Public Affairs, who predicted Mid Sussex would be taken by the said Yellow Peril.

The only problem with that of course is that we had one too, and ours worked oh so much better than theirs.

However if they are looking for someone to blame in their own ranks, and on the day of the count some clearly were, it seems that they will pin it on the people in their party, particularly in Burgess Hill, who went independent over "disagreements".

I have to say it helped, but we were not counting on it.

It seems though that elsewhere they are looking for bigger blood. Word reaches me that the leadership is being blamed both nationally and in Wales.

The Arsembly blog has a series of articles here on the ructions in the Welsh Liberal Democrats who have yet to make any progress since their first election of 6 AM's here, and here.

Meanwhile Ordovicius has this tale of blame here and coalition trouble for the Liberal Democrats here.

Then of course there is the slow bubling of noises about Ming Campbell's leadership. Iain Dale has round ups here and here.

I know that in Mid Sussex their PPC Serena Tierney (who rather ridiculously styles herself as Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Spokesman*) was surprised at some of our results, particularly in Lucastes because I heard her say so. That made me laugh!

That said they obviously had high hopes and were looking to improve their seat numbers in the council and went backwards instead.


So should they blame Ming, their own internal divisions, their campaigning technique or what?

Frankly I don't care as long as they rip themselves apart, but then again I might be biased!

* To be fair at least the English language has not been garbled here. Spokesman is correct and can apply to both men and women. Spokesperson would have caused a rant on my part!

Did I mention how exhausting elections were?

This was my first campaign. I have to say it was educational. It was also extremely hard work, particularly in the last days when the tempo really hots up.

What you see on the doorstep, in terms of leaflets delivered and canvassers knocking on doors is only a small part of a very large operation.

Leaflets need to be written, set into delivery routes.

Canvass sheets need to be produced, but after they have been filled in, what is on them needs to be entered back into a computer system to make the information useful.

It is a big organisation, and it ticks along all the way to polling day.

Surely that is when the campaign ends? Not a bit of it. Polling day is a day of unremitting hard work, running around getting the vote out. I was literally running at stages in the day! I thought I was so unfit that I could not run out of sight on a dark night, but the adrenaline of election day gives you energy.

So after having worked from well before the polls opened to when they closed some 15 hours later it had been a long and very hard day. Normally I would have gone straight on to the count, but this year that was not to be. We did the count the following day.

The problem is you don't want to sleep straight away! My running mate Katy Bourne, Peter Bradbury, now the newly elected County Councilor for Cuckfield and Lucastes decided to have a drink and a chat. That was good.

Then came the count. I was so tired I missed my alarm and ended getting to the count which started at 8.30 at 10 instead. The count went on and on and on. I still had energy left though, as it was exciting! We had some key battlegrounds we needed to win, as well as being aware we would be squeezed in areas where we did not want to be squeezed.

Since the end of he count and the loss of the adrenaline I have been completely exhausted! I have had an almost complete lack of energy.

That said I am just about feeling it coming back now as I return to normal.