Friday, May 11, 2007

How big will the Brown bounce be?

So Gordon Brown will apparently launch his leadership campaign today, which I have to say is not the biggest political shock in history. He will win the Labour leadership, quite possibly unopposed.

When he gets the job of Prime minister, will he get a poll bounce?

The short answer is yes. The eulogies for Blair will have lifted the whole Labour party in the polls. What is more interesting is where he is picking up those votes, which I think are in Labour's heartlands, and how long will the bounce last?

My hunch is that Labour will get a bounce of about 3 or 4%, and that will last for about 3 months. However the votes will be in the wrong places to win an election.

4 comments:

Harry Haddock said...

How big will the bounce be? I guess it depends on how high we fly the aeroplane before pushing him out...

Innocent Abroad said...

I've had my Brown bounce already - my gas bill to-day was over £50 less than the corresponding one last year - oh, silly me, that's David Cameron's doing, isn't it? Of course it is.

Benedict White said...

Harry Haddock, LOL! I didn't know Charles Clarke had a pilots licence!

Innocent Abroad, I think you will find that is due to a combination of things, like the milder winter, and competition in the market place.

Nothing to do with Brown, Blair or Cameron.

ChrisD said...

Innocent abroad, not surprised your gas bill went down. That usually happens when Gordon Brown is not involved.
It's only the part of your personal finances where he has control that seem to be on an ever upward spiral.