Monday, August 27, 2007

Labour's Lead cut in New ICM Poll

The latest ICM poll is out in today's Guardian. It shows Labour at 39% (+1) Conservatives at 34% (+2) and the Liberal Democrats at 18% (-2).

The Guardian chooses the the headline "Poll warning to Brown over October election gamble" and then goes on about regional variations and trends on particular issues.

The problem with the regional variations is that the sample sizes are just too small to make them worth looking at seriously though they do show Labour strong up north, down in Scotland and Wales, doing well in other regions but not in the south. Crucially however the Liberal Democrats are doing very badly in the South where their voters are going Conservative.

As I said though, the sample sizes on a region by region basis are too small and so too volatile to be taken seriously.

The interesting thing though is the Conservatives leading Labour on health, crime and the economy.

I stand my prediction that the first poll to show the Brown bounce to go will be the Communicate Research at the beginning of October.

Apart from that the poll is fairly dull really.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Try this one for size

The security fears are fuelled further by the admission that information about the children of celebrities and politicians is likely to be excluded from the system.

Did we seriously expect anything else?
This is an admission on the Gov't part, that yes, we are fucking useless at data security, so we'll
a)move our brats out of the database.
b)cease worrying that our brats are so clinically/mentally defective, and our parenting skills so poor, that social workers and family courts will inevitably intervene.

anonymouse said...

Anonymous

Referring to your comment on the social workers and the family courts.
If the rights of the child are to be paramount, the social workers should be present at the birthing of every unmarried single mother, in order to seize the baby and immediately foster it to heterosexual married couples in stable relationships.

Following recovery, the young lady should then be re-housed with parents.

The public is pissed with having to fund rent whores and their future delinquent off-spring.

Sir James Robison said...

So we'll just have to wait for October then.

Benedict White said...

Re Anonymous at 1:59, Yes the childrens database is both a shocking and silly idea, for a whole host of reasons.

Re anonymous at 2:21, I am not sure that follows.

James, yes we will have to wait for a while yet for the Brown bounce to go, but still not that long.

Anonymous said...

"Re anonymous at 2:21, I am not sure that follows".

So you condone unmarried 16 yr olds getting up the duff to get a council flat to rear a future delinquent brat?
Using your money.
Hug a Hoodie.
Here's a gun, go and shoot an 11yr old.
Have a good smoke at this first, it'll improve your aim.
You're not really a conservative are you Benny, just another punk, bleeding heart, liberal wuzz.

Benedict White said...

Anonymous at 8.38, No it is not that I condone 16 year olds getting pregnant, it is just that it does not follow that it would always be in the best interests of the child to have it removed from its natural family.

Anonymous said...

it would always be in the best interests of the child to have it removed from its natural family.

ROFLMAO.

Natural family?
Gawd help us Benny, if your lot got in.

So it's best to stay with a 16 yr old rent whore, who really knows the world, to bring a bairn up on benefits, in a no hope sink estate, in a one bedroom flat?

No father figure, and probably another sibling, only half related, within a year, to bump up the benefits, and get another bedroom to turn into another cess-pit?

Grow a brain, break the habit of a lifetime, and take a stand on something, for gawd sake

flashgordonnz said...

Er? Anonomouse at 8.05: who is YOUR "lot" then? I'm sure even members and supporters of the BNP have relatives who could be described as being around 16, unmarried and pregnant.

Anonymous said...

Flashing-gordon.
I don't have "a lot".
They are all liars, with hidden agendas.
I'm free to judge the lot of'em.
And they stink.

Anonymous said...

Flesh-garden.
So BNP kids.....
So do labour kids....
So do lib-dam kids....
So do.....
You get the picture.
But WTF has that to do with politics?

I should not critique policies because you think I have "a lot", and your thoughts on "My lot" make my comments illogical?

I would say that your mind needs a refresher course in logic.

You can't impute error, and then make accusations of guilt.

Bollox, fleshy-stump.