MI5 stops leaking information, but continues to spread fear and terror

On Tuesday the 9th of January I wrote this article entitled MI5 and emailing the culture of Fear.

IanP kindly pointed out that there was another story here as well, in that MI5 were sending all the details of people subscribing to the email service unencrypted to a marketing company in the United States. It was also on spyblog.

Well according to this BBC article here the campaign by Spyblog worked and they are at least encrypting the data and don't appear to be sending it to a marketing company.

The issue I am concerned about remains. The fact that MI5 will send out terror alerts by email will be used by all sorts of people including terrorists who will send fake terror reports much like we already get lots of phishing attempts.

The possibilities are endless to those who wan to make mischief of such an ill conceived plan. Perhaps if spyblog drops by, they could point out this rather obvious and stupid flaw in the plan.

Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti execution botched

I note that the execution of Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti has been botched.

The trick with hanging is to get the length of the rope right, or else they either die of strangulation if the rope is to short (as used to be the case) or they get their heads ripped off as in this case, if the rope is too long.

The British developed manuals with tables of weights and rope lengths. I understand Malaya still uses them.

Errors were made executing Saddam, this one should have been handled better. The stability of Iraq depends on it.

You can read the BBC article here.

Came from the BBC website?

If you came here from Nick Robinson's blog on Social responsibility, you probably want this link on consumer action here.

We've had ASBO's, now Tony wants Super ASBO's!

According to this article in yesterday's Sunday Times, and reports I have seen on BBC News 24 the government want to introduce something called a violent offender order, or VOO.

This is aimed at violent offenders, apparently including those who have commit ed no offence. You do have to ask just how do you know someone is going to be violent if they have commit ed no offence, but there you go.

From the Sunday Times article we have this:

According to a Home Office document outlining the plan, to be published next month, the measures will ban potential trouble-makers from certain areas or mixing with certain people, alert police when they move house and possibly force them to live in a named hostel, give details of vehicles they own and impose a curfew on them.

Hmm.. Well, technically you have to give details of vehicles you own anyway, though failure to do so is unlikely to land you in jail, but the thing that worries me most is the term "potential trouble-makers".

Surely Hazel Blears is a potential trouble maker, as can be seen from this, Tom Watson certainly has been a trouble maker as he signed a letter saying Tony Blair should go, and now. Hazel Blears is a serial protester against her own governments health policy, whilst Tom Watson was key in the attempted coup against Tony Blair last year.

ASBO's have also been used and abused against protesters as can be seen from the statewatch website section on ASBO's for protesters. It is already a disgusting travesty of justice.

However the report goes on:

A report out today, by the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies in association with The Sunday Times, reveals that almost half of the offenders caught by police are getting away without a court punishment, robberies have risen and murders are up by a third. Street muggings remain stubbornly high.

Well, that is a problem, but surely you have to ask why? Half of the offenders? Is this guilt before any process, or is there some other problem like the police feeling a greater need to fill in paperwork or meeting other targets so they have not investigated these crimes correctly? Are the CPS working effectively with the police to bring cases to court?

Further on the article says:

The Voos are designed to be a “preventative measure”, according to the Home Office paper. “It would mean that, where an individual was known to be dangerous but had not committed a specific qualifying offence, restrictions could still be placed on their behaviour,” it says.

Known by whom? And rather more pertinently how? How can you tell someone is dangerous if they have not committed some offence? Also, breach of a VOO like an ASBO will be a criminal offence, and also like an ASBO all sorts of hearsay evidence will be taken into account, so look at some one in what they think is a dangerous way, and you could end up with a VOO.

The article goes on:

Unlike Asbos, which solely cover antisocial behaviour, Voos would be targeted at thugs who would be placed on the violent and sex offender register, a national database for intelligence on people deemed to be a serious risk to the public.

Well, actually ASBO frequently ban people from committing specific criminal acts for which the normal route could well have been taken had the Police and CPS been bothered in the first place, as well as legitimate protest such as this one.

Ministers are concerned that the Asbo regime has failed to give police and the authorities enough powers to tackle potentially violent offenders.

Again the word "potentially" scares me. The police have plenty of powers to lock up people who threaten violence, (affray) or cause alarm , harassment or distress (See the Protection from Harassment Act 1997) so why do ministers feel the need for more laws?

The paper identifies a series of “risk factors” that could lead to a person being targeted for the new order. These include a person’s formative years and upbringing, “cognitive deficiencies”, “entrenched pro-criminal or antisocial attitudes,” “a history of substance abuse or mental health issues”.

I see. Why not just lock up all the Jews, or do a DNA test for homosexuality, perhaps even find people with DNA that says they could be a criminal? Perhaps we could get teachers to inform on misfits, whilst children in the "youth movement" will of course alert the authorities to deviant activity by both parents an teachers?

I have to say this is the most bizarre thing I have heard in a long time. “cognitive deficiencies”? What? are we supposed to lock up thick people? Or just the people who can't quite see the inherent truth in the party line? Surely people with mental health issues should be cared for rather than criminalised?

The article goes on. I suggest you read it.

Needless to say Shami Chakrabarti, director of Liberty is against it, as I suspect would be most right thinking totalitarian dictators. This is after all a bonkers idea that further strips away what it is to be British.

Cash for Peerages, have they no shame?

Well it seems not.

Seasoned observers of the political scene will have noticed that Labour is a bot strapped for cash, particularly as many donors in the loans for peerages accusations are demanding that their loans are repaid on time. (See much Guido passim)

To the rescue comes Lakshmi Mittal, whom followers of the original cash for favours scandals will remember as the Indian steel magnate with world wide business interests who got Tony Blair to write a letter to the Romanian PM on his behalf.

Completely coincidentally the said Lakshmi Mittal had donated £125,000 to the Labour party a little bit before. (Most lawyers write letters for their clients for much much less)

Well apparently according to yesterdays Sunday Times, Lakshmi Mittal has just donated £2 million to Labour to help out. How nice. According to this article Lord Sleazy Levy and Tony Blair personally negotiated the deal. After all a Romanian steel business has to be worth more than £125,000.

I suspect Guido will be looking for other angles on this tomorrow.

Update 17:39 16/01/2007:

Well Guido has not covered it, but the BBC has this here by way of confirmation.

Home Office in meltdown, John Reid to resign?

Well, Dr John "Comrade" Reid said 8 months ago when he took over the home office, that it was unfit for purpose. A read of today's newspapers indicate that it still is, but ministers are in some bizarre game of buck passing and ducking responsibility. Dr john Reid, Tony McNulty and Joan Ryan all need to go, and soon.

We have of course the latest foreign criminal scandal, this time relating to mostly UK citizens who get a criminal record in the EU, and then return to have their files carefully piled up in boxes to be ignored. I wrote about it here.

Well, more news has surfaced since. The Observer has this about a criminal, Dale Miller, convicted in Switzerland and Germany for violent offences latter went onto commit manslaughter here. Were his record known he would of course have got a longer sentence.

The Sunday Telegraph has this on the buzz of activity around ACPO's criminal records office, or rather lack of it.

Micheal Howard also wrote this opinion piece which lays into John Reid over this scandal but as a foot note tells us that the Assets Recovery Agency is to close, having cost the tax payer £18 million to recover £4.3 million.

Could it possibly get any worse?

Apparently yes. Apparently funding issues will mean a cut in front line police numbers, which may well see crime start to rise again. Remember also that the police are burdened as never before with paperwork. It just makes you weep. The Sunday Telegraph has this whilst the Observer has this.

Update 18:00

According to the BBC a senior civil servant has been made a scapegoat suspended over the criminal records fiasco. You can read the BBC's article here.

it looks like the civil servant is also a member of the First Division Association which covers the arses of serial cock up merchants looks after the interests of the most senior civil servants.

Government Ministers pay to bury bad smell

Well, according to the Sunday Telegraph here and here, the government is looking to offset it's vast carbon emissions from flights by carbon offsetting. A process described by some as like paying the RSPCA and then beating your pet.

Tony Blair may be right that science may well have the answer to global warming, but that is not by mitigating ones sins through paying the pardoner it is by finding alternative ways of producing energy, of which there are many.

However what appears to be going on is that as part of the scheme the government's offsetting policy is to bury some vegetable waste in Thailand and then use the methane gas to provide electricity to the plant producing the vegetable waste. If they did not do this, it would stink. Methane is odourless (Must tick off ignorant Telegraph journalist, methane does not smell to such a huge extent that natural gas has a smell added to it to let you know when there is a leak) but the process of decomposition often produces other gasses such as the rotten egg smell of hydrogen sulphide. (You also get this smell in river estuary mud due to anaerobic bacteria)

Well good. The government is doing two good things. It is preventing methane getting into the atmosphere, and by turning into electricity, is also reducing carbon emissions. Double gin and tonics all round!

However I will make a couple of observations.

Firstly you don't have to go to Thailand to get roting vegetables (John Prescott anyone). I appreciate that many would like to throw them at Labour politicians, however we as a country dispose of vast quantities of organic material a year which can be turned into methane (after removal of hydrogen sulphide and carbon dioxide) that could be fed into the gas grid or used to generate electricity.


Secondly, if you produced the energy here, you could sell it here, and as you are saving land fill tax, get paid to take the waste away and paid for the energy and compost produced, so the carbon offset would be both cheaper, and more beneficial to our economy.

So nice try David Milliband, if you were doing a GCSE I would give you a C, if you were doing anything more, I would have to say "must try harder to think in a joined up coherent way"

Government discipline gone to pot over NHS

Well, according to today's Guardian 11 government ministers, and two current PPS's are protesting against various hospital closures. You can read the article here. You can also read my previous article on the subject here.

Two of them are even in the Department of Health. many back benchers are complaining as well. Clearly Patricia Hewitt's policy is not popular, inside or outside of Labour.

The Guardian article quotes Patricia Hewitt's position as follows:

Ms Hewitt has not asked her ministerial colleagues to refrain from dissent before opportunities for appeal against closures and downgradings have been exhausted. "But when decisions are decisions, there will come a point when colleagues need to get behind the solution," the source said.

This is however a massive breakdown in party discipline. At least a couple of PPS's had the decency to resign. Obviously Hazel Blears and John Reid have no such decency.

There is a feeling in the public at large that we face hospital closures whilst at the same time more money is being spent on it than ever before, in real terms and in terms of percentage of GDP.

So who is to blame? Patricia Hewitt?

No. The gibbering fool who caused so much of the cost over runs, for example the new GP contract costing £300 million more than expected and consultants £500 million was none other than the seagull minister John Reid, who dropped into the health department, did some very bad deals and flew off to perches new.

Why a seagull minister? Because he flies in, cr*ps all over the place then leaves.

What future for the NHS?

Remember how Patricia Hewitt said "This is the best year for the NHS ever!" last year?

I doubt she will be repeating that remark.

The question is what is going on in the NHS and will it survive? There was this article in the Daily Telegraph today where it was reported that BMA chairman James Johnson said there was only one year to save the NHS, as it was in financial crisis.

Well, in part the financial crisis is created by the vast wage bill of the NHS, and in particular the increases in pay for GP's and Consultants. You can read what the Independent has to say about it here and here. Then there is the hidden cost of PFI. Apparently spending on the NHS is about to be triple what it was in 1997. It seems clear to me that what ever else you may think might help the NHS, extra money is not it.

As an example a friend of mine works in the local hospital's mortuary. A Consultant from that hospital who used to do post mortems now no longer needs to, as she earns the extra £15,000 per year anyway, so at greater expense they have to get a consultant down from London to do them. So no money saved. As the Independent article says, GP's now get 63% more than they did 3 years ago, but now only need to work 9 to 5 Monday to Friday.

We have had Can Gerry Robinson fix the NHS? It was an interesting series of programs. The main issue is not funding but how things are done. I used to work as a domestic in my local hospital, when I was studying for A levels. I can confirm that the way some things are done in the NHS are bonkers. Gerry found entrenched practices that made no sense and did not help run the hospital. He managed to get waiting times down in the Children's unit from 8 weeks to 2 with out spending a penny.

It seems to me that a lot of the NHS is organised the way it has always been organised, or the way the person who barks the loudest wants it to be organised, rather than in the best way possible for patient and tax payer. Part of the reason for this is that the service is "free" that is that some of the people running the NHS think they are doing you a favour. Well, I have got news for people like that, it isn't. I pay tax, to pay for the NHS, and if people are being treated with MY money I expect them to be treated well.

It seems clear to me that hospitals can't be centrally run, they need good and effective management on the ground. I'll give an example. Missed appointments cost the NHS lots of money every year. Is this feckless patients or a feckless service? Well, it is a bit of both but in my view more of the latter than the former.

If you have an appointment for some clinic or other you get an appointment time. When you turn up you find that everyone else at the same clinic has the same appointment time, you you have to sit around waiting for ages to see this or that doctor, or nurse, then go and queue for a blood test, come back, see some one else and eventually go home. In the mean time you spend a lot of time waiting about. If you had to drive, (in rural areas you have to) your car is needlessly blocking a car parking space, and in any case your employer is wondering where on earth you are.

There is no need to organise things in this way at all. It seems to be organised for the convenience of the clinicians, though it does not seem that convenient for either the clinician or the patient.

Even modern hospitals are not designed to be cleaned. If they were then you would have as many floors clear of any obstruction you that larger cleaning machines could be used. Instead of which dirt traps are all over the floor.

It just takes a little communication, some common sense and will to do these things. Unfortunately there is little good feeling in the NHS which has had to face 9 reorganisations is as many years all parachuted in from the top.

Cure for Cancer!

I remember a time around 10 years ago or more when every 6 to 12 months you would hear about some promising break through that promised to beat X, Y or Z cancer.

Well, these days they come a lot more often, and in fact I have seen one yesterday and one today. However, the new ways of combating cancer are for all cancers, not just the fashionable ones.

Most ways of dealing with cancer relied on battering everything on the basis that healthy tissue would recover whilst cancer cells would not. Radio therapy certainly works this way. So no cure has been pleasant.

Drugs like Herceptin have been developed but are specific to one type of cancer, or rather one subset.

The problem with cancers is that they are of course quite a lot like normal human cells, so it has been hard to target them specifically.

Well, not so know, and more bizarrely the two things that can beat cancer are both naturally occurring. Odds are you have had at least one of them, and if you like hot food, both, so are fairly safe as well.

The BBC has this on Jalapeno peppers as a cure, or rather the chemical that makes them hot, capsaicin which does interesting things to a cancer cells mitochondria. Mitochondria are a cells boiler house, and almost all cells have them. Apparently they are different in cancer cells, and have different proteins in them. Capsaicin binds to the proteins and effectively shuts the mitochondria down leading to cell death. It does not affect normal cells because they don't have the protein. You can also read this on when the jalapeno pepper cure came to light for prostate cancer.

The Guardian has this on the Common cold. Another thing that is different about cancers is that in order to survive they shut down the immune system locally. If they didn't the immune system would wipe the cancer out and that would be that. What scientists have found is they can use this against the cancer by giving it the common cold.

The common cold is a virus, and like all viruses it gets into a cell, replicates until it fills the cell, which then bursts and then all the "children" go on to do the same to other cells. Whilst this is going on, and cells are dying the immune system gets it's act together and finds a way to kill off the virus. Except not in tumours, because the cancer cells have shut down the immune system so they are easy pray. What is more, out side this sphere of protection the immune system is waiting for any common cold viruses.

For me the exciting thing about both techniques is that the do not damage healthy tissue, or at least not significantly and so should have a lot less in the way of side effects.

Well, as a smoker I have to say I am pleased. Now all I have to worry about is whether the milk I have in my copious amounts of tea are negating all the good effects of having the tea in the first place!

Joining up the dots in Prison Policy

Prisons minister Gerry Sutcliffe has said prisoners will abscond, in a debate in Parliament, when question by Nick Herbert Conservative MP for Arundel and South Downs, in whose constituency Ford open Prison is.

Well, it is true, having made deliveries to both Lewis Prison and Ford Open Prison, I can tell you that you can simply walk out of Ford with no problem at all.

In principle this is not a huge problem, these people are supposedly low risk. However in the case of Ford Open Prison, they only discovered a prisoner was missing when the police dropped him back off. A tad embarrassing I would have thought.

You can read the BBC's article on the story here.

Then I read this in the BBC, about two murders absconding from an open prison, you have to wonder how exactly the risk assessment is done.

Open prisons have a place, but increasingly it seems to be somewhere to put prisoners because they have run out of space.

Mind you, if you want to look at some of the problems at some open prisons you can read this article from the BBC about two prisoners who escaped from Leyhill Open Prison and trekked their way back to Gloucester Prison and asked to be taken back in. You just could not make that story up!

Update 00:53

The prison from which two prisoners have just absconded is Sudberry Open Prison, which now has a total of 5 killers on the run. You will remember the scandal of Derbyshire Police not wanting to release photos of two escaped killers on "human rights grounds" which was rightly rubbished by Lord "Cheerful Chappie" Falconer as a load of tosh. You can of course release pictures of escaped convicts if you are looking for them.

Government spent £206 on IT per man, woman and child last year!

If you don't read Dizzy thinks, you should. He has this article on the subject, and got the £206 by reading carefully between the lines.

Just so as you know, you could have bought a laptop in the PC World* sales for £199 after Christmas, so that is a lot to spend on IT in ONE year!

*Please note, I in absolutely no way recommend any one ever use or buy any thing from PC World.

Dr. John Reid Scuppered by latest farce

You will no doubt have heard about the latest farce at the Home Office, where it appears that records from other EU countries about convictions for people coming back here have just been lying on some ones desk. That is details of 27,529 cases (That is one big desk!)

Well Comrade Reid is holding an "urgent" meeting this morning after which he may make a statement. Will that be his resignation? Probably not. What I think we can be certain of is that he won't be challenging Gordon Brown for the job of Prime minister, as he is losing credibility is fading very very fast.

You can read the BBC's article here.

Update 16:16

If you are looking for other reasons why John Reid won't make it you can also read this and this.

MI5 and emailing the culture of Fear

Apparently MI5 are going to begin emailing terror alerts to people to let them know if the terrorist threat changes. This is information already available on their website, but soon you will be able to subscribe and get terror in your email.

Sound like a good idea until you consider the real world.

In the real world all sorts of alerts purporting to be from the likes of Microsoft and AOL do the rounds causing endless worry for the ignorant who can't spot a hoax even if it has got email hoax written on it in ten foot high letters of flame.

It is nice to know that this government is showing of its technical knowledge by playing to the hoaxers. Something which Microsoft and AOL do not do incidentally.

So expect to see lots of hoax emails saying "terror alert raised" and possibly directing people to websites which look like MI5's with all sorts of malicious rubbish on them.

Well done to the once again incompetent government.

You can read the BBC's article here.

Update Wenesday 10th of January, 12:22

Just had a comment. I could not think of it getting worse but apparently it does. The email alerts are to be sent by a US based marketing company. So if you have subsribed MI5 send you data around the world in plain text. What is more, who knows who these people will sell your email address too.

What an incompetent bunch of losers.

You can read this on the PJC journal, and this on spyblog.

Rats join sinking ship!

In what has to be a somewhat unusual move two rats appear to have joined a rapidly sinking whip.

These would be two Conservative members of the House of Lords who have joined UKIP, namely Lord Pearson of Rannoch and Lord Willoughby de Broke. You can read the article in the Times here.

It will be remembered that Nigel Farrage was elected leader after the farce with Robert "The Tangerine Man" Kilroy Silk joined and left to form his own party VeritArse (Who he then left).

UKIP now seem to be in some sort of state of complete collapse with local associations collapsing all over the place like for example Southend, West Dorset and now Plymouth!

West Brom Blog has this, whilst Iain Dale has this and the BBC has this.

Of course the Times article has it as bad new for David Cameron, but you have to laugh don't you? If two people, clearly dafter than a brush rush to join a sinking ship you have to say good riddence, and *cough* good bye! (Or words to that effect)

A Mobile revolution in Africa!

I was frankly a bit sad to hear a few years ago that one f the fuels to the fire that is the civil strife in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was a mineral mines to make capacitors small enough for mobile phones. My luxury killing in Africa, plus la change.

However there is hope. There is something I did not think would ever happen, but it is. Africans are getting mobile phones, and not just the rich or the white, but lots of people.

I listened to a Radio 4 and now having just watched BBC two's Newsnight I am stunned to learn that in Kenya a third of the adult population have mobile phones. It is revolutionising peoples lives. They can where ever they are (Yes, pretty much where ever they are) pick up the phone and make a call. They can get text services and even surf the Internet.

The Newsnight reporter, Paul Mason, even tried to get off network by going to the bottom of the Rift Valley, and the the touristy bit with the Safari parks, but the bit with the Masai. These poor nomadic tribesmen wouldn't have a phone and probably no coverage.

Well, not so. The reporter could even surf the net their if he wanted to, and they had mobiles as well!

To give you some idea of the revolution, a farmer used to sell his goods to a middle man. he could pay what he liked as the farmer had no way of knowing what price was available elsewhere. Not so any more. He can get the price of tomatoes any where and any time, so he knows where to send his crops to market. This is already making a huge difference to people. No longer are they trapped with out contact with the outside world or the world in the next town.

Apparently most people in Africa's largest shanti town don't own mobile phones, but then 15 years ago you could have said the same about Kensington and Chelsea. The fact is some people in the slums DO have them! Some seem to use it for mutual political activism. Fantastic!

In fact Africa is the fastest growing mobile market in the world.

So how come Africa has mobile phones but otherwise crumbling infrastructure?

Straight answer is that all the mobile operator needs is a licence. The cleptocracy don't get their hands on the money so it grows. What is more, it is all private money. It is not yet revolutionising the poorest in Africa but it will as it is helping at all other levels.

You can read more here.

Hammersmith & Fulham to cut council tax

Hammersmith & Fulham council is cutting its council tax by 3%. This is good news for council tax payers as council tax accross London has gone up by 86% since 1997.

Council tax is set to rise across London again this year, so Hammersmith & Fulham are bucking this trend. What is more they are not cutting front line services to do it. Here is what they are cutting:

• £3 million saved from improved efficiency like contracting out some services and sharing others with other boroughs
• £5 million from reducing bureaucracy, staff and office costs including cutting political advisers and policy officers.
• Over £1million from increased income from expanded controlled parking, events and selling advertising space.
• £3million from getting better value for money from suppliers and from using new IT systems to cut costs.
• £0.5million from reduced debt payments.

What is impressive is that they are doing this whilst Ken Livingstone is increasing his share of the take.

Well, I suppose if Wandsworth can do it, so can Hammersmith & Fulham.

Of course all this has happened since May 2006 when Hammersmith & Fulham decisively changed hands from Labour to Conservative. We will have to see if central government reduces their grant now they are a Conservative council. Seems to be the way it works elsewhere.

You can also see this interview with Cllr Mark Loveday, Cabinet Member for Strategy on 18doughtystreet.com.

Update 12:36

I forgot to mention that Hammersmith and Fulham councils website is here, and their press release on the subject is here.

What Conservatism means to me

Is an article that I wrote for the Birmingham University Conservative Future blog here.

Please have a read.

The home Improvement Tax

This story seems to surface from time to time. You can read what the Sunday Telegraph had to say here.

Basically it seems that there is a trial in Northern Ireland (no Labour seats there) for a new way of doing what amounts to council tax.

They seem to want yearly valuations. Except these won't actually be proper valuations, because to send a qualified valuer around every year to asses the tax would have in 1997 have cost between 50 and 150% of the tax collected and would now still be a bit silly.

No they are talking about taking a base line valuation then adding for "home improvements". This would be various ways of finding out if you have done up your bathroom or put up a shed. Apparently Sir Michael Lyons who is leading an inquiry into local government finance is in favour of annual revaluations as we have the technology.

One of the problems we face is those who will not learn from history and those who have no idea how other people live. I can see two problems with this policy.

Firstly, there is the window tax case. When the window tax was introduced to raise money it was a great idea. You can now see houses built in this period because they have small windows and windows which would be there but for the tax. The ultimate result will be a cut in the home improvements business, as in DIY shops and builders. It will also mean that people who have struggled to get on the housing ladder will get penalised for fixing up their house. Not good for the economy or hard working families.

However there is the second and I suspect unintended consequence which is this: The effect on social housing.

The householder in a council or housing association house is responsible for the council tax, unless there is no adult in the house working. These houses are getting money spent on them albeit sporadically, on things like new bathrooms and double glazing. The tenant's do not get much of a say, but will be hit by an increased tax bill for some thing they have not done. Some of these people work in marginal jobs as it is, and this may push them over the edge.

You have to ask though what is the main motivation for the reform? The answer will look like a new way of raising tax, it will hit a sector of the economy and will also hit people in social housing with unexpected increases in tax. In short it will be a disaster.

Blair catches up, but after the dog

It appears that Tony Blair will say that the manner of Saddam's execution was a bit wrong. This is after Gordon Brown, John Prescott, and everyman, and their dog has already made comment on the issue.

Just goes to show that not only is he the lamest of ducks, but he is behind the times as well.


You can read the BBC on it here, and the Telegraph had this here.

I hear that other co defendants face execution during the week. If any one from the Iraqi government is reading this, the trick, people, is this: Make sure that there is only one official version, and make it look as good as possible.

Home Office Still unfit for purpose

It appears that the head of the prison service, Phil Wheatley has admitted that his service has no idea of how many escaped prisoners have been recaptured. Originally he said he did not need to know because they know who they are looking for on a local level. This has unsurprisingly drawn incredulous remarks from both the media and opposition parties who find this position a bit bonkers.

The story developed over the day, and now Phil Wheatley says there is an urgent need for a database. It seems that this is the case so hat he no longer has to face the incredulity he has faced today, rather than the more obvious reason that you need the feedback to know what is going on. We need to know how many people are left to catch, and of what class of criminal they are in order to know how big the problem is. The fact that he thinks he needs a database as some sort of PR exercise rather than the more obvious management feedback, indicates that he does not understand why he is doing what he is doing and goes to show just how bad things in the Home office really are. It is clearly still not fit for purpose, and as John Reid does not appear to have made it better I think it is safe to say that the Home office will have ended another ministerial career early. I wonder if the betting prices on John Reid becoming Leader if the Labour party will start to drift out now on the betting markets.

You can read the BBC's article here, and the Telegraphs here.

Israel's planned Nuclear attack on Iran

The Sunday Times carries this story claiming that Israel is planning a tactical nuclear strike on Iran if something is not done about Iran's nuclear program.

As the article suggests this may be a bit of brinkmanship or bluff on the part of Israel, however it is also seriously deranged.

I think most people would agree that Iran getting nuclear weapons would not be a good thing, but it is precisely this sort of threat that makes it politically justifiable in Iran to strive for a nuclear weapon. Further more nuclear weapons have not been used since World War two, and for good reason, they are an unacceptable escalation. lastly of course Israel does not admit to having nuclear weapons, and has rightly maintained "ambiguity" on the issue as a matter of policy for decades. Undoubtedly this was the right course as they could not be criticised for having something no one could prove they had, but would not be attacked as they might have it. The policy did have the issue of legitimising others in the area trying to go nuclear though. However recently Ehud Olmert in a casual slip of the tongue admitted having nuclear weapons. That clearly was a mistake.

A nuclear attack on Iran would also have much wider and more serious implications. There is already an Islamic bomb, in Pakistan, who's government would come under severe pressure in the event of a nuclear strike. It would also justify North Korea's position on nuclear weapons as well.

Interestingly Syria realised long ago that it could get away with building up chemical and biological weapons to threaten Israel with almost unnoticed until it was too late, thereby assuring that across the Golan Heights there is Mutually assured destruction. In some ways that looks positive.

Clearly what is needed is a comprehensive peace in the Middle East and a nuclear umbrella over it provided by the USA and UK. Unfortunately our record in stopping genocide since World War two probably means that won't be trusted.

Gordon Brown And Saddam Hussein

Interestingly after john Prescott condemned the nature of the hanging of Saddam Hussein as deplorable last Wednesday, Gordon Brown has joined in agreeing.

In an interview with Andrew Marr to be broadcast tomorrow, he will also describe the nature of the execution as deplorable. Good. Meanwhile Tony Blair remains silent on the issue whilst Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says he will review relations with any country which criticises the execution. Umm... Well, if there is nothing to criticise, then why hold an enquiry?

Gordon also admits that there have been some mistakes in Iraq policy. It is so jolly good of him to notice. I wonder how that will go down in Washington though. You can see AM with Andrew Marr at 9 AM Sunday the 7th of January, or read the BBC report here or you can do both!

However on the upside, the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki did announce a crack down on all militias no matter how they are connected politically or from what sectarian group they come from. Good I say, lets hope it works. You can read the BBC report here.

My other predictions for 2007

Politicalbetting.com is running a prediction competition for 2007, and here is my entry:

On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party None
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Douglas Alexander
6. President of France S Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Barak Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain

For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 280
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 125
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365

What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +3%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -5%

What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 24

Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +4
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -7
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -550
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -75

Which is also here.

Iain Dale has his here.

You can view the whole thread here.

John Prescott and Saddam Hussein

I seldom agree with John "Two Shags" Prescott, but here I do.

I do not agree with capitol punishment, but if you are going to execute someone it must be done with some sense of dignity. This clearly was not the case here.

If you are going to execute some one, then the last people the condemned man sees are his hangman and religious minister. Witnesses are kept separate. There is no record other than the official record. No one has a camera other than the official recorder.

The Iraqi government has launched an investigation. Well, it is too late. The horse has already bolted. The man has been hanged, the die has been cast.

Less haste more speed. More brains more success.

You can read the BBC article here.

Ellie Lawrenson and the pit bull terrier

I have to say I think every ones heart has to go out to the parents of Ellie Lawrenson. Her tragic and very violent death must be painful. They will live with this for the rest of their lives. Ellie's grandmother clearly fought bravely to save the girl and was badly injured. I am surprised she fared so well.

What is it about people? take the hint from the name. A pit bull terrier is a dog that is bred to fight a bull in a pit. hardly a cuddly family pet, more like a sworn off shotgun with a hair trigger.

I understand the police are looking at criminal charges for the owner, who may be an uncle. Good. Leaving a sworn off shot gun lying about with kids around would could be negligence amounting to either manslaughter or murder.

However people should note that children and dogs need to be supervised as children can do things to dogs that may cause them to bite. Provided the dog is good tempered and the child able to learn it is not a problem, but that is seldom the case.

You can read the BBC's article here.

Smoking age set to rise

As a smoker I feel heavily put upon these days. I can work in an environment where the air is not fit to breath but can't smoke. I won't go into the rights and wrongs of that now though.

I understand the government intends to raise the age at which it is legal to buy cigarettes from 16 to 18 in October.

The reasoning seems sound. Retailers say that it is difficult to tell a 16 and 1 day old from a 16 less one say old, as there is little valid ID. If they only had to serve people above 18, then it would be easier to tell and so sales to underage children would be reduced.

Fine, I can see the logic, and I agree with the aim. However I do take issue with how it is being done. What is going to happen is that people who could legally buy cigarettes on one day may have to wait up to 1 year and 364 days to buy their next pack. That is wrong. Those who are addicted will find ways to get their cigarettes and pass them on to younger children. It would be so much better to phase in the age rise over a couple of years so as not to end up with the anomaly.

You can read the BBC's article on the subject here.

My Predictions for 2007

Here are my predictions for 2007:

• 2007 will start on January the 1st.
• There will be charges in the Cash for Peerages/Honours scandal.
• The threat of charges will cause canaries to sing.
• Charges will be brought for obstructing the police investigation.
  
• Gordon Brown will end up with a coronation in about September.
• There will be no deputy leadership election either on grounds of cost.
• There won't be a snap election, or indeed any in 2007.
• Labour will lose 350 to 500 seats in the May locals.
• Labour will lose control of the Welsh and Scottish Assemblies.
• There will be no consensus on party funding so Labour will force something through which will be unpopular in the country and will be reversed when the government changes hands.

I could go on, but I think that covers it. I think the first prediction is a cert as well ;)

Update 22:14

I forgot to say Happy New Year to every one! I hope you all had a good Christmas!

Saddam Hussein and Gerald Ford still dead

I have not said anything much about Gerald Ford, who died at 93. Seemed like a good bloke and seemed to do a good job. I was only 8 at the time he lost the election in 1976 though so I won't go on and on. Good job well done, Gerald, you had a good innings, we wish you well and may you rest in peace.

Whilst I don't agree with capital punishment, but I give no eulogy for Saddam.

What bugs me though is the 24 hour news coverage which seems to ignore all other news.

Really chaps, we get the message, there dead, and barring a miracle they will stay that way. Any chance of any news?

Saddam Hussein Al Tikriti executed today

Saddam Hussein was executed today. I can't say I will mourn him. He was never nominated for the Novel Peace prize, or Humanitarian of the year. I doubt he will be missed.

However I don't agree with the death penalty. That said he was tried and executed under Iraqi law. Unfortunately he was executed on an Islamic holy day for Sunnis, when prisoners are normally released or pardoned. The timing was wrong.

He also managed to go to the gallows with dignity, in short some sot of propaganda victory for his cause. We do need to learn.

You can read the BBC's article here.

World War II debt repaid

You will no doubt have heard this on the news. You can read the BBC article here.

What interested me about the war debts we have is that we stopped paying of debts for the First World War in 1934. These debts are huge. However we are actually owed more than we owe. So the US could bankrupt us by ending the repayment moratorium, but then we could avoid that by bankrupting others, including I believe the French!

I was also staggered to hear we still owe for the Napoleonic wars, though who to, I have no idea.

Wars are very very expensive in terms of blood and treasure. They should only be entered into as a last resort, rather than because your mate the illiterate idiot across the pond thinks it is a good idea.

Interesting fact about World War one is that we finished it with 22,000 serviceable aircraft, most of which were sold off as surplus.

Hazel Blears opposes and supports government policy at the same time!

You could not make this up. Hazel "Chipmunk" Blears supports the reorganisation of the NHS which will result in the closure of hospital units, but not in her own constituency of Salford where she opposes it.

Well if she opposes government policy she should not be in government and certainly not the Party chairman responsible for discipline.

She says she has every right to fight for her constituency. Well fair enough behind the scenes in cabinet, but to take to the streets is bizarre. That said Dr John "Comrade" Reid has done the same.

Is Labours party discipline so shot to bits that cabinet ministers can protest against their own governments policies? (To be fair to Comrade Reid, he is not part of the Scottish executive that makes those decisions)

See this in the Guardian or this on the BBC.

Hat tip to Andrea on political betting for the links to the story.


Update: 11:50

Apparently Jacqui Smith has been at it too. See here. So what of cabinet government?

Megaphone conversation goes on, this time from Iraq

I wrote here about what I thought was the bizarre megaphone conversation between Tony Blair and our troops in Afghanistan here. He said they could have what ever they wanted, through the press and the answer came back through the press.

We now have the commander of British forces in Southern Iraq, Major General Richard Shirreff, adding his tuppence worth here.

It appears he feels the armed forces are under resourced. He puts it down to a generation of under funding and to be fair blames both this and past governments.

This all started with the peace dividend. This was the stupid idea that the end of the cold war would lead to a fluffy cuddly world where we did not need quite the military we had before. Of course the cold war was swiftly followed by the first Gulf war, chaos in Somalia and Afghanistan, the Balkan wars and lots of other conflicts.

You would have hoped that at some point in this obvious lack of peace politicians would have stopped taking the peace dividend and realised it was a folly from start to finish, but the fact is that our troops are now engaged in more places at one time than they have been since the Second World war. We just do not have the troop numbers and I don't care what the MOD say, the equipment to do the job at hand.

Not only do we need to look at defence spending again, but it is also clear that we need to un merge some regiments and rebuild our army.

Allergy Advice Contains peanuts

On what was this advice given you might ask?

A packet of dry roasted peanuts.

Funnier than any of the jokes in the Christmas crackers!

Merry Christmas everyone!

Just thought I'd say that. I hope you have a good Christmas and that those you love have a good one too.

Met Chief talks rubbish again

In Fridays Today program on Radio 4, reported in the Telegraph yesterday (Sorry can't find the article, the Telegraph's search engine does not seem up to much), Sir Ian "I really am the most ignorant pratt you will ever meet" Blair said the threat of terrorism was greater than the cold war and second world war.

Iain Dale here, argues that this is scare tactics. I disagree. It is merely proof that Sir Ian Blair is one of the most ignorant people in any position of power in the country. I called for his resignation here and I do so again. The man is an ignorant git.

For the avoidance of doubt, had the cold war kicked off as a nuclear war we could have lost millions in minutes, and in one raid on Coventry during the blitz 568 civilians died in one night, in one city.

The Insidiousness of Closed Courts

Family courts operate in secret. That is they are not open to the public, nor indeed reporting. That means that they get no, or rather very little scrutiny.

Social services seem to operate on the basis of being too scared of some parents or careers, or perhaps too chaotic and over worked, to save some children from what with hindsight becomes obvious abuse, to being too keen to take children away.

There is very little scrutiny of the system whilst no one is dying horrifically. This leads to cases like this one, highlighted in a leader in today's Times by Camilla Cavendish. Let us make no mistake here, she reports it from a misandrists stand point labouring the plight of the mother yada yada, without much care for the pain the father is going through, but the facts are there all the same. A child is being deprived of it's parents because there is a suspicion that the father may have done something to another of his children by a different woman 10 years ago. He still lived with his other children and they were not taken away. Bizarre.

The child has been put up for adoption by Social Services. The case is winging its way to the European Courts.

There are two things that are fundamentally flawed here. Firstly the way in which the courts operate in secrecy, and secondly the prospect that a child may end up being adopted and therefore both parents and child deprived of each other for life before the case is finally finished. When the death sentence was abolished, a successful appeal would mean something, you could get released. When a child is adopted, that is it. You can't get them back. That you can then win on appeal and not receive justice is horribly perverse.

There are many things wrong with the family courts, and this is certainly one.

Labour isn't Working!

According to figures from this article in the Times today.

Youth unemployment is higher than in 1997, as are inflation and interest rates.

Wow.

It looks like Ken Clarke's legacy is being wasted.

Mark Senior will no doubt be along to tell us how Gordon Brown has done any minute now.

That said consumer debt on credit cards seems to be dropping which is a good thing, as long as it does not happen to fast leading to an economic slow down.

The Domestic Violence that dare not speak its name

I listened to a piece on this mornings Today program on Radio 4. The plan is to build safe "panic rooms" for women so that they can be safe from domestic abuse should their male ex become a problem.

You can read the BBC's article on their website here.

Neither it, nor the government seem to mention domestic violence perpetrated by women on men. Not Once!

However I did note this article, prompted by Surrey Police which does make it clear that domestic violence is both man on woman and woman on man. You can read that article here. It is also the first time I have seen a domestic abuse poster featuring a battered male.

Whilst I am at it, in recent years I can only recall ONE NSPCC advert that did not feature a man as the abuser of his children, and that was recently. Most violence against children according to one study I heard about was a woman beating a child. (To be fair they get more contact time).

So let us stop this misandry, domestic violence is perpetrated by men and women against men women and children. It is clear that when a government has a Minister for Women who does not acknowledge women on men domestic violence in the language used, that government is dominated by misandrists.

Update 13:34

I forgot to mention also the women on women, and men on men domestic violence and sexual assault which also occurs in same sex households, which does not even get a look in to the point that even I forgot about it whilst writing the main article.

Nominations for Tony's last honours list!

Well, I wrote this article here, asking who would want to be on Tony Blair's resignation honours list and here are the nominations so far:

John Prescott (rumoured)
David Blunkett (Nominated by Ellee)
Stephen Hawking (By Ellee for *cough* genuine reasons)
Peter Mandelson ( Anonymous)
Alistair Campbell (ChrisD)

Any more nominations welcome.

Update: 11:54

Think of this as Tony Blair's disHonours List.

Family breakdown and government policy

Frankly there has not been enough discussion of Ian Duncan Smith's policy paper on Social Justice, entitled Breakdown Britain. You can find the website of the Center for Social Justice here, and the Breakdown Britain report here.

There is a huge amount government can do, for example as well as having a minister for women, or children why not have a minister for families?

Apparently according to this article in yesterdays Telegraph Gordon Brown is quoted thus:

"Gordon Brown said in his 1998 Budget that 'support should be based on family need – not family structure."

Which appears in part responsible for 200,000 families lying about their status to get more benefits. It seems to make sense to live apart, or at least to pretend to. What is more of a concern to me is how many of the 1.9 million families that do genuinely live apart do so in part because of crazy benefit or government related pressure?

There is no doubt, or at least there should not be that a stable family is the best place in which to bring up a child. We need to make it clear that stable families are supported.

People also equate living together with being married. After all, what bigger commitment is there than having children together?

Well, it has to be said that having children together is a big commitment, but it is a different commitment to being together in sickness and in health for richer or for poorer.

We do need to preach values.

Tony Blair's last honours list- Will anyone want to be on it?

Well, you have to ask. After all the scandal and rumour surrounding the cash for peerages affair, you do have to wonder if any one will want to be on his last list when he resigns.

Rumour has it that John "Two Jags, Three Shags, Three Houses" Prescott will be in it, but will any one else.

Nominations please!

The Liberal Democrats and the Politics of Envy

Thanks to Yellow Peril who pots on politicalbetting.com for a link to this article in today's Observer.

Apparently Vince Cable thinks the Goldman Sachs payouts are obscene. Well, lost of things are obscene like for example the cash for peerages affair and child pornography, but high bonuses are not on my list I am afraid.

What is even more of a concern is that Vince Cable is reported to be bleating about second home and share capital gains tax after 10 years. It drops to 10 percent. Presumably he would like to scrap that rule. However there is a reason why it is there, and that is to encourage people to hold on to investments for the long term rather than speculate in the short term. Changing the rule may well lead to a return to more short termism. It does help to think things through.

Meanwhile whilst our boys are dying in the field the Defence budget is cut

Yes, according to this story in today's Sunday Telegraph the MOD is looking to save £1 billion.


You just could not make this up.

It should be noted that is to keep the MOD on budget, with cuts already announced rather than a new cut, but it is clear that there is not enough cash being spent on these wars to win them.

Hat tip to Alex on politicalbetting.com for the link.

Cash for Peerages, Another Sunday morning update.

Well, I posted an article on Saturday about the cash for Peerages Saga. It seems it is on the front of Sundays Telegraph, Times and Independent. That won't make for happy reading in Labour circles.

Broadly the thrust of the stories I have seen is that Lord Levy's friends are still saying he won't be a fall guy, this time with knobs on. Blair is failing to endorse Levy in public or private (how do they know about all the private bits?) All in the Telegraph here. The peerage nominations in question were for public service according to the nomination papers from the Independent here. Of course some senior aids to be questioned again from the Sunday Times here.

The most interesting one is the Independent on Sunday revisiting the nomination papers because it indicates that Tony Blair *cough* told the Police something which later turned out to be incorrect.

The line that they were nominated for "party service" looks holed well below the water line, unless service means giving cash. Yates of the yard will be sending someone round for another chat with our Tony. Mark my words.

Update 10:46

Forgot to mention this article in the Observer. Sources say that Gordon was involved in attempts to honour Ronnie Cohen and Wilf Stevenson.

Labour is leaking against itself. Expect fireworks over Christmas as journalists look to fill their pages and people who are bitter about yesterdays leaks provide tomorrows.
(hat tip to Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com for the link to the Observer article)

Cash for Peerages, When will the Canaries Sing?

I said in this post here that as it looked like six people may end up being charged over the cash for honours affair, then some one will start singing. I thought it might be at the trial. I may have been wrong.

This article in the Times suggests that Lord Cashpoint Levy's and St. Tony Blair's accounts do not tally. That means that Yates of the Yard will want to have another word with Lord Levy, or rather get some more written statements from him, because that is what he seems to have been doing so far. I wonder how convenient he now finds his office fire of late last year?

If Yates pressures the right people, who it looks like Tony has dropped in it, then they may well have to give up more information to save their own skins. That will mean of course that Tony Blair may well be questioned again, and if so it may well end up being under caution.

In other news I was listening to the Today programme on Radio 4 yesterday morning when I heard Tony Wright, Chairman of the Public Administration Committee of the House of Commons say this:

"I have taken the view that this police investigation has been a kind of shock to the system and, on the whole, a good one, I am not sure that any further public benefit will be served by this going any further. I think the benefit from it has now been obtained."

To which I say:

"Bog off and stop trying to influence the Police in an important investigation!"

There is also more in today's Telegraph here.

What is also interesting is that Gordon Brown has issued a statement to the Telegraph on Saturday here denying the story raised by Channel 4 news on Wednesday which I commented on here. It seems Gordon and his cronies are worried that "elements" in the Labour party are trying to tie him into the sleaze. Depending on how that goes expect more infighting soon. It seems though that the statement issued by Number 11 was also approved by Number 10, so it may not be a direct fight between Gordon and Tony but a scrap amongst the acolytes. Should be fun all the same!

You can read more on the Cash for peerages saga here.

Mentioned in Dispatches!

Just thought I would mention that someone at ITN's Channel 4 news emailed me yesterday to say that I had been mentioned in their blog! See here.

Also of note, is that according to Dizzy, here, John Prescott's "website has received 2771 unique hits since August. This blog did that in 3 months! (And traffic is growing here) So this blog is more popular than John Prescott's website, fantastic! Mind you I suspect a lot of blogs are more popular.

Cash for Peerages, Tony Blair questioned

So much for pure than pure!

Had some one said that Tony Blair would be questioned as part of a police inquiry in to a criminal investigation of corruption a year ago, surely people would have laughed!

They are not laughing now, though they seem to be trying to spin this as some sort of result. Further more Chanel 4 reports that maybe as many 6 people will be charged. Expect them to sing like canaries at trial, hence Yates of the Yard making sure no one has any last minute recollections at trial (as happened in the Burrell Trial, see here)

Let us just be clear, no sitting Prime minister has ever been questioned by the Police before!

Guido seems to have got hold of No 10's media grid for the day, here and it seems they were hoping to have such a busy news day that no one would notice things like the 2500 Post Office closures, the cancelling of the Serious Farce Fraud Office investigation into BAE and corruption as well. It appears not to have worked. And it appears they wanted to bury bad news under the Diana inquiry. Hmm...

What seems worse for labour is that the Sun has for two weeks been very negative on Gordon Brown. I am no fan of the Murdoch press, but this is an interesting development.

The BBC has this here. I also recommend reading Guido above and here and Iain Dale here and here.

Cash for Peerages, Gordon Brown in the frame!

I just heard a story on Channel 4 news about a certain Ronnie Cohen being given an honour forced through by the Treasury against the advice of officials!

Strangely Guido covered Ronnie Cohen's links to Gordon Brown here in October, though his information did not seem quite so specific as Channel 4's.

Ronnie Cohen has provided Labour with quite a lot of funds as well as funding some of Gordon's pet projects. You would have to wonder if he contributed to Gordon Brown's blind trust now wouldn't you.

Alex Salmond was getting on his high horse about it as well. Well Alex, don't do that, just put in a complaint to Yates of the Yard!

I will update with more links to more news stories as they become available.

Bob Piper stops blogging - for now

Apparently according to this post on his blog he seems fed up with the storm over the racism row. So he has for now decided to give it a break.

I hope he changes his mind. There are some quite simple rules to blogging. If you try to offend some people expect to have them come and bite back. If that is a problem try not to offend.

That said some times offending people can and is justified, in which case you had better stick to your guns.

Still sometimes you can make points with out resorting to sound bites and being offensive. I'd rather hoped that is what the blogosphere could be. We get enough silly soundbite diatribes in the MSM with out doing it the same way here.

Still the row may have some upsides. Unity at Minitrue has come up with this explanation of why he posted the original which is really good and despite its length well worth the read.

Is Bob Piper Toast?

Many people will have noticed that a certain Labour councillor for Sandwell one Bob Piper who's blog is here has received much flak for a post on his blog using an image from the Ministry of Truth (Does he realise just how Orwellian that is?) here.

Bob has now taken it down.

However the storm looks set to continue. In many replies on his blog it seems clear he has offended people. Fair enough politics does, however what caused him to take down the article appears to have been his Labour group leaders comments as reported by the BBC here rather than him coming to his senses on his own. What also seems clear is that Councillor Bob will be reported to the Standards Board for England and possibly to the Commission for Racial Equality as well. An adverse finding by the SBE or CRE will finish him.

Could it possibly get any worse for Councillor Bob?

Councillor Bob Piper in racism row!

Dizzy has covered it here and here. Apparently he has been mentioned on the BBC. It is all over a picture he copied from the Ministry of Truth, (again covered by Dizzy)

There are many things to be irked about over this and many others have said it, but what is really getting my goat is that after having got to top spot for political blogs on rankingblogs.com (See here) then being quite some way ahead I have a quick peak and Bob's old blog has stolen my spot! (See here)

I'll sulk in a corner for a while ;)

Any one fancy getting me a mention on telly?

Update: 21:33

Bob Piper has taken his post down. You can visit Bob's blog here. Prague Tory originally started the outrage rolling here meanwhile the first pratt and originator was The Ministry of bollocks Truth here.

Is this why Gordon's tax figures are wrong?

As I have said in previous comments on the pre budget report Gordon Brown sets his own growth target and meets them when he marks the paper. Vince Cable said as much in his response to the pre budget report in the House of Commons. However where Gordon Brown tends to fall down and can't mark his own numbers is how much he has raised in tax compared to forecast. Many other commentators have noticed as well. He almost never gets as much tax in as he thought.

The question has to be why?

Well here are two situations where tax has been avoided. There is the often covered in Private Eye Mapely Steps PFI scandal where the Treasury buildings were sold off to a PFI firm in a tax haven who laughably have pleaded poverty and lack of profit to Select Committees in the House of Commons who are now not paying large amounts of tax.

Then there is this article in the Independent on Sunday which shows that even Labour want to avoid having stamp duty paid at the full rate on the sale of it's old head quarters!

So the government and the governing party are involved in tax avoidance. No wonder tax receipts are down!

Hat tip to Mystic Moon on Polliticalbetting.com for pointing out the Independent article.

Is Gordon to be coronated?

It is interesting that there seems to be some buzz around the story that some Labour MP's want to scrap the post of deputy leader of the Labour party. The reason? They seem to think that an election for deputy leader would be divisive and expensive. You can read the BBC story here.

but hold on a minute. If the deputy leader election is held at the same time as the leaders election then it won't cost much more. So what is going on? Do they want Gordon to have a coronation?

Frankly I can't see it as there are a number of members of the cabinet who would stand if they thought they could win. However if they don't run, and John McDonnell does not get his 44 signatures then perhaps the squeeze will be on to save money.

Only one question remains. Who has put them up to it? Answers on a postcard!

Pre Budget Report, early comments

It's going to take some time to come up with a considered opinion on this one. The news papers have done a lot of work on this and financial journalists will have done lots of work on this before hand. You can read the report yourself here.

Two things strike me. Firstly the language is so obviously partisan like Gordon howling his rubbish from the very pages you read, rather than the dry report report that I was expecting. The other is the ever increasing Public Sector borrowing requirement, which has risen above forecast and is rising as a percentage of GDP. According to the report it will continue to rise until 2010 when it seems that they claim it will level off at 38.4% of GDP.

Gordon Brown has made much of his so called prudence. I can't see it here. If you still need to increase borrowing after 57 continuous quarters of growth you are either not collecting enough tax or you are spending too much.

The amusing this is why the hole in the public finances is getting bigger though. It is because of lower than expected tax revenues. Gordon always seems to get his growth forecasts right (though he sets the estimate and as Vince Cable said yesterday, marks the paper) he always seems to over estimate the tax take. Perhaps the growth figures are just wrong?

Also oil companies investment in the North Sea seems to be down since they had a massive windfall tax slapped on them. Never mind the years of risk taking to get the oil or the times when oil has been only just profitable to produce in the North Sea, make a healthy profit for the risk then you get slapped with a tax. Shame Gordon can't do that to the PFI firm who owns the treasury buildings, they are in a tax haven!

Of course green taxes as a percentage of the tax take are still way less under the Conservatives, but then what did you expect.

Iraq a mess Official - The Iraq Study Group report

You can read the report for your self here. It looks like some real Conservatives are taking on the situation and looking to work out a solution.

In many ways of course it is far too late as we need not have got in this mess in the first place. You can read my article on why we are in this mess here, and other articles on Iraq here.

What I was most interested in though was the recognition by the presidential nominee for Secretary of Defence Robert Gates admitting that America was not winning the war in Iraq. Amusingly Tony Blair when asked if he agreed said yes of course. I doubt he would have said that last week

You do have to wonder why it was that Rumsfeld decided to use the minimum number of troops possible to take Iraq. I have a theory that Donald what a pratt Rumsfeld thought that if he could take Iraq on a shoestring in terms of troops the Neo Cons could make the case for effectively building an empire.

What Rumsfeld missed though was that firstly the age of empires is in essence passed and secondly the worlds greatest empire, ours was built on a lot more than force and mouth. It was built on guile, cunning, statecraft, bribery and things that were Machiavelli still alive at the time would have caused him to rewrite his famous work, "The Prince". Of course all Rumsfeld brought to the table was the sort of stupidity that can only be born out of a high intellect and breath taking arrogance.

When I have read the report fully I will comment further.

That pre Budget Report in full

Ukrainian tractor production up 137.5%, better in fact than Ukraine which only managed 122%!

Prudence!

Golden bollocks Rule!

We will only borrow to invest over the economic cycle!

(Ed, hold on, we have had 57 straight quarters of economic growth so why do we need to borrow? Just how long is this economic cycle?)

We have invested more (Ed, surely spent?) than the Conservatives on Education and the NHS (Ed, hold on didn't Gordon say that spending wasn't the answer in 1997?) to build a better future for everyone in the country (Ed, apart from the people in the bottom 2 percentiles who are worse off then they were under the Conservatives)

We build on economic growth (Ed. You what? you jest surely? The only growth we get is by bringing more people into the labour market, keeping wages low and generally making people feel naffed off) built on massive public spending, private borrowing and bringing in more immigrants sound economics. (Ed, ah I see.)

We have borrowed to invest, I'd rather not admit how much, but it would make any decent man cry and I have not even included my favorite wheeze, PFI, and next year we will exceed what was forecast last year. to build a better future! That I won't be around to pay for!

Editorial note: Gordon Brown forecast borrowing between 2001 and 2006 of £28 Billion despite a record stretch of economic growth, but managed to borrow £129 Billion. Current forecasts of Gordon "whats prudence?" Brown indicate borrowing of £175 billion over the next 6 years. And you thought your mortgage was high? I expect that number to grow and be called "investment". However it does not include PFI.

Afghanistan. Have we got the tactics wrong?

I don't wish to bash our troops, they are doing a fine job with the troop numbers and equipment they have but I can only see problems in the tactics used.

Firstly I don't like the way platoon houses are being operated. This is where a number of troops hold a government compound in an important town or village.

These platoon houses get attacked on a regular basis as indeed such defensive positions have been attacked throughout the thousands of years of war. That would be OK if there were enough men and material to go out and meet the threat. There isn't so a firefight ensues between the waring parties catching much in the cross fire, until air support becomes available destroying where the enemy are.

This has two key problems. Firstly that which is caught in the cross fire and secondly which ever building the Taliban were holed up in gets destroyed possibly after they have left.

In short there is not enough military power about to prevent the Taliban taking up positions in towns as and when they like causing havoc for the civilians when fire fights start.

The second tactic used is long range patrols. In many ways these seem to work well in drawing out ambushes but the Taliban use the cover of other peoples houses to fight and they get destroyed. There is not a huge amount that can be done about this other than to bring each individual firefight to an end as soon as possible. They normally end with the dropping of a bomb. It looks like the Taliban know how long it takes to muster a plane with a bomb and frequently may be gone before it is dropped.

It both the platoon house and the long range patrol situation rapid air cover would be very useful. This will mean many more planes in the sky at all times on patrol, but it will help in both circumstances.

In short we lack men, armoured vehicles and aircraft. The government is trying to do Afghanistan on the cheap and if it continues on this path it may well fail.

It should of course be noted that attacks are down month on month, but the Taliban will use the winter to regroup and rearm. We need to cut off their cash and supply, which is a difficult job, as well.

Brown's promises from 1997

I read this interesting article in the Daily Telegraph today, by Ruth Lea. It goes through Brown's promises in 1997 and to some extent where we are now.

Here are some choice quotes:

More specifically, one of the key policy objectives of the Treasury is "increasing the productivity of the economy".

This has not happened. Productivity has disappointed, with an annual average growth of less than 2pc since 1997.

Growth from 1992 to 1997 was around 2.25pc, which was criticised at the time.

And then there is this:

Turning to the "tax 'n' spend" aspects of the Chancellor's record, the manifesto makes for interesting reading. May I quote some key passages? "The myth that the solution to every problem is increased spending has been comprehensively dispelled under the Conservatives."

"The level of public spending is no longer the best measure of the effectiveness of government action in the public interest. It is what money is actually spent on that counts more than how much money is spent."

"New Labour will be wise spenders, not big spenders."

Ah such promise dashed. In fact if you look at spending growth and productivity growth over time in the NHS spending seems to have little to do with productivity growth. It was much better between 1990 and 1999 then it has been since. That is an awful lot of money for little return spent since 1999.

A small apology

Readers of Political betting.com may have got the impression from this post of mine here that a Conservative government introduced universal primary education.

It appears from this article on wikipedia that this may not have in fact been the case.

I humbly beg forgiveness.

Brown plans to rearrange deck chairs on Titanic

Well, that's my take on this article in today's Observer by Will Hutton. Obviously Will Hutton seems impressed, I think that by this stage you can tell I am not.

Amongst Browns plans he wants to split the Treasury into two, one part responsible for economics but also taking trade and productivity from the DTI (DTI to go by the way) and finance, tacking the Inland Revenue, Customs and Excise (all in one now anyway) and government spending.

Allegedly this will allow him to control economic policy better and then he can blame low productivity growth in the last 10 years on the structures of government. Never mind the fact that previous governments have had better productivity growth with the very same structures, he would like to rearrange the deckchairs all the same.

I suspect there are two real motivations behind this proposal. The first must be obvious. Brown does not want to be hamstrung in the way Brown has hamstrung Blair over the last 9 years. Brown wants no Brown as Chancellor, so make sure there is no Chancellor and there is no possibility of that. Prime Ministers before Blair would have just sacked Brown for being a pain and not following orders and in fact they have. It seems that as chancellor Brown had a unique position. His long service in the job is more down to the loyalty of his own supporters and keeping Blair at bay then to how he has done the job.

The other motivation is that some politicians, particularly on the left love to think that what ever was there is wrong and must be changed and they will leave their mark on history by doing it.

There is of course a fundamental problem with separating economics from government finance, and that is this: Government spending at anything like its current rate (and no one is likely to change that) has an enormous effect on the economy and economics in general. There is a huge danger in separating the two off is that policy between the two will be less joined up then it currently is.

Will Hutton does note that Harold Wilson tried this game in 1964 and within 5 years the Treasury had sunk it. Hutton contends that Brown knows more about the Treasury than anyone else so can make it stick. The problem with this thesis is that it assumes Brown is around in 5 years.

He also wants to lock in economic stability, don't we all? What can he do that can't be changed and undone by another government and is this just some wheeze to pass the buck if the wheels fall off the economy whilst he is still PM?

Apparently he wants to move the Attorney General out of politics. I wonder if he has ever asked himself the question "why is the Attorney General in politics?" because if he had he would appreciate the political accountability it gives.

Also there is a bit of kite flying like making the NHS independent, presumably so the government can avoid the blame, and setting up a body to advise on fiscal policy, spending and tax, so he can shrug his shoulders if there are unpopular things to do.

You would of course have to wonder how this country has copped without Brown as PM.

You can of course read more on Gordon Brown's record here.

We of course wait with baited breath to see what Gordon Brown comes up with in his pre budget report next Wednessday.

Hat tip to Arb Seeker on politicalbetting.com for pointing the Observer article out.

Nightmare for Cam the cuddly! Allegedly.

There was rather silly and indeed stupid article in to days News of the world today. Shows that it is nothing like a news paper any way. Please note the article has no permanent link so will break after a week.

The articles talks of the woes of the Conservative party under David Cameron blah blah blah.

Rather amusingly the on line edition invites us to review the survey yourself, and then links to this ICM poll which was carried out in February (is that news now or are they just useless?)

What the article is trying its best to avoid leading on is that the Conservatives lead 39% to 30% over Labour which according to Martin Baxter's electoral calculus gives a predicted overall majority to the Conservatives of 18. If that's a nightmare I say bring it on. (The Liberal Democrats got 20%)

Needless to say the poll watchers and pundits over at polliticalbetting.com haven't taken any notice of the News of the World but a lot of notice of the poll which is taken as good news for the Conservatives.

How Polonium 210 kills you

I have noticed a few people seeming to wonder over here from google to find out, so I thought I would explain.

Polonium 210 is one of 25 isotopes of polonium all of which are radioactive. It is also a rare earth heavy metal. It is toxic as are metals like lead and mercury however you are unlikely to have enough polonium in your system to be greatly affected by the toxicity before the radiation gets you.

There are 3 sorts of radiation, alpha, beta and gamma. Imagine if you will that you are trying to shoot a target on one side of London from the other. Gamma radiation is like a fine laser beam, beta radiation is like a snipers bullet and alpha radiation is like firing a double decker bus out of a very large cannon. It won't get very far but is bound to damage something on the way.

Polonium 210 decays to lead 206 by emitting an alpha particle. Aplha particles are in essence a helium nuclei. That's 2 protons and two neutrons. It is the heaviest radiation some 7500 (approximately) times heavier than a beta particle and carries twice the electric charge.

It won't go far but on the way it will rip 2 electrons from other atoms and this is where the problem lies. When you do that to an atom in a stable compound like haemoglobin in blood or DNA that atom stops being a full part of the compound. In short ionising radiation (which is what it is) rips small bits of the body apart.

That is not a problem in itself as this happens in small numbers all the time. Cells repair and move on. However what happens with radiation is that more cells are damaged than would otherwise be the case so it makes recovery harder.

Polonium 210 is very radioactive, 1 gram gives off 166 trillion (yes that is a very big number) of alpha particles a second. Even a milligram gives off 166 billion alpha particles a second and frankly the body can't cope with that level of sustained damage every second. Bits of your body just break down and cease to function.

You can read more articles from this blog on polonium here.

Some Journalists are just plain stupid!

I have just had the misfortune of reading this article by Amanda Platell in today's Daily Fascist Mail.

She opines that Gordon Brown should not be PM because of his son Fraser's cystic fibrosis. She thinks it will be hard work and his family will need him more.

She thinks it is OK for David Cameron to be Leader of the opposition and Gordon Brown to be Chancellor, but not for Gordon to be PM. Hmm.. So presumably the same argument applies to David Cameron being PM?

No wonder she was so pants when working for William Hague.

Gold for National Anthem!

Apparently if you want to replace "God save the Queen" with Gold, by Spandau Ballet as the national Anthem there is a petition you can sign.

It's here, and it's priceless!


If you have your own silly petition you want to get publicised see No 10 Downing Streets E Petition website here.

Fantastic!

Hat tip to Jonathan on Politicalbetting.com.