Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Brown Bounce continues, but is still not long lasting!

The Guardian has just published its monthly ICM poll which shows Labour at 38% (-1), Conservatives on 32%(-3) and the Liberal Democrats at 20% (+2).

However some of the other numbers are a bit worrying, showing some discontent amongst Conservative voters about David Cameron.

That said we are at fairly early stages in the Brown premiership, Gordon Brown having been Prime minister for just under a month (it is one month tomorrow).

What is clear is that the Conservatives need to recapture the agenda, which was always going to be hard during the transition and doubly so during the flooding.

Hat tip to Frank on PoliticalBetting.com for the link, whilst political betting has this.


Anonymous said...

How do you know the Brown Bounce isn't lasting, do you have a crystal ball. Seeing as you predicted a Tory win at ES, iI think we can honestly say, your crap at predicitions.

Benedict White said...

Anonymous, The title of the article refers to the fact that the bounce is only at most a month old, which is not long.

The BBC keep describing it as long lasting which is tosh. See here:


However, that does not mean that it won't last, just that as yet we are in the early days.

Anonymous said...

Benedict, I am not sure that what we are seeing is Brown controlling the agenda. He is trying too and the media are certainly trying to spin an angle on it, but watch Brown swing in the wind faster than a windmill in reaction to the mood or criticism in the blogsphere?
I see the old spinning tactics are back in use looking at the Sun headline today.
That is sign that he is reacting to rather than setting the agenda.

Benedict White said...

ChrisD. Yes Brown is a spinner, and I take your point about him reacting rather than being proactive.

That does not get good policy.