Wednesday, July 18, 2007

My Predictions for Ealing Southall

To be honest I think this is very hard to call. It could go either of 3 ways, but here is my prediction anyway.






Lib Dem


A Conservative win on a reduced turnout of 47%


Anonymous said...

and to think Gordon is about to recriminalise weed. or are you on crack?

Benedict White said...

Anonymous and your predictions are?

Chris Paul said...

In mine the Tories don't break 20%. On Political Betting. But Labour 35, LD 25, Tory 19 were the headlines as I recall.

Losing deposit and possibly even 5th in Sedgefield

Benedict White said...

Chris, given that you think someone who spent part of his secondary education rather than all of it was not fit to be a shadow minister for secondary schools, whilst someone entirely privately educated could (Ed Balls) I don't take you all that seriously.

Well, unless you are going to campaign to have Ed Balls removed from his post.

CityUnslicker said...

BW - I hope you are right, brave predictions none the less!

Colin Campbell said...

Your Sedgefield prediction was very accurate. Why do you think that this prediction was way off the mark. Did you predict too early. Just interested since you seem to have a finger on the pulse.

Benedict White said...

Colin, in Sedgefield, I got the shares and place of the LD's and Conservatives wrong. What I got right was the Labour share which was not that hard, just looking at the nature of the seat, low turnout of the incumbent party and so on.

I got Ealing and Southall so wrong by reading the runes the wrong way, the fact that it was more in play and harder to tell.

What I did not factor in was the effect of the Tony Lit picture and donation.

Anonymous said...

To easily overturn a majority of over 11,440 in Southall was only a dream.