Friday, July 27, 2007

Gordon Brown 's bounce continues

Gordon Brown 's bounce continues, causing much speculation about an October general Election.

A YouGov poll for today's Telegraph puts Labour on 41% (+1) the Conservatives on 32% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (+1).

Over on there is much speculation about an early general election. Whilst these poll numbers would ensure a Labour victory, there are a couple of caveats. Firstly I can't see the Liberal Democrats doing that badly in a general election, so there vote share will go up, the Conservative vote share is already about as low as it will go, so the increase will knock a couple of points of Labour.

The other caveat is the number of people who disapprove of the government's record to date (52%) or don't know (20%) compared to those who approve (27%). In fact if you look at this graphic the don't knows are quite large. It may well be that they just won't vote, but it certainly is all to play for.

Over July local by-elections have shown a consistent lead Conservative lead over Labour of about 8% according to the Press Association. (See here).

One other thing on polls and elections, I am fairly certain that turnout will be up on 2005, possibly as high as 70%. That means a lot of people who did not vote in 2005 (or indeed in 2001, or 1997) will be voting again. These voters look like the "don't knows" and are classic swing voters. They will ultimately decide the next election, quite possibly on how wealthy they feel compared to last year or the year before.

Then there is the economy. Where is that going? Well as I highlighted here, there are some potential problems ahead centered mainly around the reduction in cheap credit. That has also led to sharp falls in stock markets around the world, and so far today those falls continue though at a slower pace. (I doubt they will go much further than they have already gone though). Oil prices are also high nearly at record levels, which will add to inflation as energy prices may rise, having fallen back from last years high. if inflation picks up again then there is the potential for another rise in bank interest rates. this will further eat into disposable incomes and make people feel poorer than they did.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Why worry most people realise what's going on by the media ,I watched tv the other day and one channel had an American on talking about Brown ,I thought the Yank was going to have an orgasm talking about Brown ,even veneer gets chipped with age,the next GE will be as late as Brown can get away with ,all we have to do is keep our nerve and shut up about breakups in the Conservative party ,what's happening is democracy at work.