Monday, March 19, 2007

Conservatives build massive poll lead

The Guardian ICM poll for the month is out, giving the following poll breakdown:

Conservatives 41
Labour 31
Liberal Democrats 18,

In terms of seats, these numbers give the Conservatives 329, Labour 251, and the Liberal democrats 39 with others at 31 an overall majority of 8, according to the election predictor from the UK Polling report website and the seats work out like this Conservatives 362, Labour 239, and the Liberal democrats 18 with others at 31 an overall majority of 74, according to Martin Baxter's election predictor here.

However when asked who you would vote for with David Cameron leading the Conservatives, Brown Labour and Ming Campbell the Liberal Democrats, it comes out as:

Conservatives 43
Labour 28
Liberal Democrats 18

In terms of seats, these numbers give the Conservatives 374, Labour 213, and the Liberal democrats 35 with others at 28 an overall majority of 98 according to the election predictor from the UK Polling report website and the seats work out like this Conservatives 415, Labour 183, and the Liberal democrats 21 with others at 31 an overall majority of 180 according to Martin Baxter's election predictor here.


That is a fantastic lead. It has taken David Cameron a while, but now we are consistently either around or above 40% whilst Labour seem to drift between the low 30's to high 20's.
Hat tips all round to those on Politicalbetting.com, especially Ted and Andrea!

Update 21:04

The Guardian report on the Poll is here.

3 comments:

Marquee Mark said...

Cue the big bloke in the dinner jacket:

Wun 'undred and AYYYYYTTTTTEEEEEEE!

kingbongo said...

Benedict here's another exclusive for you

the average poll movement in ICM polls since Dec 06 is

CON +0.33
LAB -0.33
LD 0

this suggests there is evidence of a possible straight switch LAB to CON going on. If that's the case then May is going to be great!

Benedict White said...

Marquee Mark, Yes! :)

Kingbongo, just seems to be the way its going :)

I suspect May will be very good indeed!