Gordon Brown's Latest Gimmick

I have to say I am quite surprised by Gordon Brown's latest gimmick.

Apparently he has ordered that every hospital should be "deep cleaned" as in shut down ward by ward and effectively disinfected bit by bit.

The purpose is to rid hospitals of the so called "super bug" MRSA and other hospital acquired infections. This is of course a laudable aim, however if that was all that was required, both John Major's government and Tony Blair's would have as well.

It could make hospitals MRSA free, but only if you don't allow patients and staff back in afterwards, particularly ill ones.

What is needed is good solid discipline on things like hand cleaning.

The BBC has this.

PS
Sorry blogging has been light, I have been working on anti spam systems.

Sorry about the lack of blogging today and yesterday

I have been working on spam cleaning mail servers.

Just to give you an idea, one mail server I look after handles millions of emails a week.

Northern Rock Shares start the long haul back

Northern Rock shares, have risen 10% this morning, whilst Alliance and Leicester have risen 21% and the Bradford and Bingley have also made up for some of their losses as well.

That is a bit of good news. The Northern Rock is still worth a small fraction of what it was 12 months ago, but at least its shares have stopped falling like a stone. The other two have not made back all their losses of yesterday but at least the rot appears to have stopped for now.

The downside it that some people are still queuing to get their money out of Northern Rock. Trust in government is clearly at a very low ebb.

The BBC has this.

PS forgot to publish yesterday. Doh!

Labour increase poll lead to 8%, so I am off to the pub...

Mind you I was off there anyway to practice pool.

According to an ICM poll in tomorrow's Guardian Labour are on 40%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 20%.

More later.

Sky has this.

The Fed cuts rates by 1/2%!

The United States Federal Reserve has apparently cut interest rates by 0.5% to 4.75%.

Stunning really.

I wonder if the Bank of England will follow suit, after all the governments favoured method of measuring inflation is down to 1.8% even if real inflation is at 4.1%.

The worry is that the central banks are all being hemmed in by this huge debt mountain so can't really deal with things like money supply.

The BBC has this.

A Coppers Blog Goes Panorama

I have just watched A Coppers Blog on Panorama, in which Stuart Davidson has been outed as David Copperfield.

I'd like to say I was shocked, or surprised. With regret I am not. I will say something can be done.

For a start, a policeman will have to fill out a form when he arrests someone. This form is about one side of A4. Fair enough. He will then have to add about another half a side of A4 on top of that across anywhere between 30 and 50 forms. This is plainly stupid. Bonkers. Idiocy.

It is not that the information does not need to get to where it gets to, or that it needs to be verified as correct by the arresting officer. It is that we do not need to repeat the entry of the data so many times, with the obvious creation of mistakes by double entering the same data.

There are computer companies, like the one advertised on the right, that can build small and cheap systems to fill in all the forms necessary for any given crime, on the basis that the arresting officer tells it what class of offender and crime has been committed and then fills in all the fields. Alas government IT projects seem to have a much bigger and all encompassing scope, that fails to talk to the grass roots and so costs a bucket and falls on its face.

Panorama has this, whilst a Coppers Blog has this.

PS.

I note that Tony McNumpty rubbished A Coppers Blog in parliament, but has since in the face of reality at least partially withdrawn his attack.

McCann's Innocent Shocker!

In a remarkable turn a Judge in Portugal has found that the police there are in fact talking bollocks not in possession of a watertight case and can't demand that the McCann's return.

I must admit I am shocked, I thought they had them bang to rights with the theory that one of them nipped out with the body and hid it in a road works for 25 days of searing heat without people noticing the smell (does that town really smell that bad?) or that the local priest gave out keys to any passing holiday maker to hide bodies in the fridge at the Church which other members of the congregation were obviously to polite to query when they opened the fridge.

However, a judge does not give these theories credence. I wonder why?

The Sun has this, the Daily Dianna Express has this, whilst the Mirror has this.

Alliance and Leicester and the Bradford and Bingley shares under pressure!

Something I should have put in the last article really. However the Alliance and Leicester and the Bradford and Bingley are under severe pressure on the stock markets as well.

Lets just hope we don't get a run on these banks as well.

Dramatic guarantee of the Northern Rock

I have to say I am flabbergasted that the chancellor Alistair Darling has said that the government will guarantee the deposits in the Northern Rock.

This is a stunning change on the position of this morning where only the first £2,000 were guaranteed in full, and 90% of the next £30,000.

George Osbourne has backed the move, whilst rightly criticising the underlying issue of the unchecked growth in personal debt which both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have banging on about for ages.

However I am not sure that this bailout is a great idea. It may be, and it may stop the rot, but the problem I have is that the government has effectively underwritten the mortgage lending of the banking sector, and thereby house prices. If there is serious negative equity ahead then there is going to be a large hole in the banks assets which are not apparent today.

Also I note interview with people in the queues. There main reason for ignoring government assurances thus far is that they just do not believe the government. I wonder if this "unequivocal" guarantee will steady nerves. I suspect that Northern Rock employees are hoping it will.

Meanwhile the Bank of England has now the problem that it is hemmed in on interest rates. It surely can't raise them to combat inflation, yet prices will rise as the output of China grows in price. This could leave us in a bit of an ugly situation.

The BBC has this.

Northern Rock: Why was it saved?

Well, that is assuming it is saved. It seems there is plenty of doubt about that.

Mervin King said that the Bank of England would not be the lender of last resort except in very special circumstances, that being a systematic failure of the financial system.

To be fair to Northern Rock, Barclay's have also dipped into the Bank of England's fund, but only once, and not for a revolving line of credit.

As Guido notes here, the city has been aware that the Northern Rock was nothing like as solid as its share price suggested for some time before the USA sub prime crisis hit.

Guido then goes on to question whether the loan extended was not because of the traditional support for Labour that the Northern Rock has been. It seems they were generous to miners during the miners strike of 1984.

The bigger issue however is the wisdom of the loan.

The die has been cast. If a bank that has a book that looks good but no other bank wants to touch, apparently the tax payer has to bail them out.

Surely we should be asking why it is that the Northern Rock is in such a hard place, whilst other banks are not?

As the Financial Times says this damages the reputation of the Bank of England. We should remember that banks have failed before, like for example, Barrings. Their bond holders and shareholders lost their shirts but their depositors did not as the bank was taken over.

Why would Labour prop up one of its favourite bank?

Lord Owen to rejoin Labour?

Today's Sunday Telegraph reports that Lord Owen has been in talks with Gordon Brown. It also has this analysis and comment here.

I can see that going down like a bucket of cold sick in Labour's ranks, understandably so. I do not have much time for David Owen.

YouGov Poll Lead cut to 5% for Labour

Though to be fair it has drifted up by 2% since the last poll a couple of weeks ago.

The poll in today's Sunday Times has Labour on 39% (+1) the Conservatives on 34% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 15% (NC).

I still can't see an early election based on these numbers, and still think we will not see one until May 2010 by which time there will be a "time for a change" mood in the electorate.

Personally I am expecting continued poll turbulence over the next 3 months, though I expect the Conservatives to be ahead in at least one poll in early October.

PoliticalBetting has this, whilst Anthony Wells has this.

The Run on the Northern Rock

It looks like savers with the Northern Rock are panicking. Queues are forming that go around the corner.

This looks very bad. However the Northern Rock looks fairly solid.

What seems to be happening is that savers have lost enough confidence that they want their money out just in case the bank goes bust. Fair enough, but it does not look good.

Yesterday people withdrew £1 billion. That is a lot of money. I understand that the bank has net assets that mean that even if all their savers withdraw all their money then the bank can still trade, backed up by the Bank of England, so there is no need for people to panic. That said if I had a lot of money in the Northern Rock I would be moving some of it about.

The BBC has this.

Madeleine overdose anyone?

It seems the tabloids (apart from the Sun) will go with speculation that Madeleine McCann died of an overdose.

Hmm.

We have had no confession, and unremarkably no toxicology report as no body has been found. So where does this speculation come from? Apparently some rumour that bodily fluids were found in the boot of the hire car which prove it. Whose bodily fluids? Are we sure that cross contamination has not occurred?

Well, apparently our forensic service is more than skeptical about these claims and rightly so. I am not ruling it out, but that is just tosh to sell papers.

Meanwhile the Daily Mail does have this piece on diary entries which have been leaked by the evidently not that shy Portuguese police.

The upshot of the entries leaked is the Kate McCann found motherhood challenging.

Could any mothers who felt it was like falling of a log backwards please leave their comments?

Flash Gordon! Aha... No, its just Stalin

Thunder Dragon has this fantastic parody of the new Satchi and Satchi advet for Labour.


Says it all really.

Thunder Dragon's blog is here.

How the McCann's killed Madeleine!?

Now, I have been hearing a lot of tosh on the subject, but the collected gossip seems to run along these sorts of lines:

Kate McCann ended Madeleine's life by accident or design.

Well, OK, these things happen. Statistically speaking most murders are committed by someone known to the deceased, frequently a family member and trebly so in the case of a young child. As a theory it is plausible, which is why most UK police forces look to eliminate family from the inquiry as soon as possible, and as sensitively as possible. It seems Gerry McCann is excluded because he was at the dinner and never went up.

Right, Madeleine is now dead, Kate is on scene, and she has to do something.

At this point one of two things could have happened. Either she came up with her own plan, and hid the body, or she left things as they were and went down to the party to tell Gerry.

At this time of course Madeleine is "missing" so Kate is allowed to look distressed and unusual.

So either Kate tells Gerry and a conspiracy brews, or she has already hidden the body.

Here the crackpots diverge, but I will try to keep it together.

We assume, that plans to hide the body came shortly after death, and shortly before reports of Madeleine going missing. If not, then Kate and or Gerry would have been behaving strangely at their dinner engagement. You would hope that this would have been noticed.

You are in a foreign country for a holiday, just where do you hide a body albeit a small one?

Here I have heard some wild thoughts, and this is where things begin to fall apart.

At some point in time it seems the McCann's had a key to a local church, which may have had a fridge or freezer.

I doubt they had they keys on the night in question. I work well on holidays and can normally find a "local" in double quick time, but to be given that level of trust so quickly? The keys must have arrived later to allow private prayer after Madeleine went missing and can't have been available on the night.

Then I have heard the theory that they/she hid the body in a roadworks. I understand that there are a few in the area, though I do not know how close to the hotel. Just how is this supposed to have worked?

One or both of them nip out with a body? In what? The most obvious and thing would be a bin bag or possibly several. That said you don't normally find a surplus of them in hotels. Then there are suitcases. Is there one missing? Ideally you would double wrap in bin bags then put them in a suitcase.

The theory would then be that the bag or bags with Madeleine in it would be put in a hole at a road works.

The problems here are as follows:

• It is going to be hot, and the body will decompose and smell.
• If it is not in a solid animal proof bag, then the bag will get ripped apart and smell. People will notice.
  
• People will notice something dropped in a hole in the ground, particularly the people working in the hole.
• If it was disguised in the hole, by covering with dirt, then either Kate of Gerry would end up covered as well as looking very suspicious at 10 at night.

Then at some point this body is supposed to have been retrieved from the same hole in the ground, possibly after 25 days, whilst Kate and Gerry are under immense media scrutiny.

The other alternate theory is that at some point Madeleine was hidden in a fridge at the church complex to which they ended up with the key. Again, when did they get the keys? Also, surely someone would have noticed something that large in a fridge?

We now get on the the DNA in the boot. The theory calls for the body to be moved after 25 days, during which it has either been in a hot hole in the ground, or a fridge or possibly a combination, in the Renault Scenic. Again they were under a lot of media scrutiny. During this process some DNA got out of what ever Madeleine was being stored in, and into the boot. Now by this time the stench would have been unbearable. Also, if the body had been in a hole in the ground, surely there would have been traces of mud from the hole as well as the DNA?

Lastly, on the DNA, the technique used amplifies very small amounts of DNA, so a microscopic amount is all that is needed. Also there is nothing in Madeleine's DNA that is not also in her biological parents DNA. Consequently the DNA test does not actually tell us a great deal.

I'll go back to a point I made before. If either Kate or Gerry caused the death of Madeleine, and got the other to collude in hiding the body, at some point the relationship is going to break down. It shows no signs of doing so. If there was no collusion, how did one manage to hide and move the body without the other noticing?

The thing is that for a whole host of reasons I just can't see this stacking up.

New Foot and Mouth outbreak was Pirbright strain

This is not actually a surprise but the latest foot and mouth outbreak is the same strain as used at Pribright which means one of two things:

• The virus survived longer in the wild than was thought likely
• Pirbright is still leaking the virus.

Not good news at all either way really. I suspect the Institute of Animal Health will come under heavy scrutiny.

The BBC has this.

Lanarkshire sheep tests OK, as foot and mouth may be in Norfolk as well

Well, the Lanarkshire sheep at the market has tested negative for foot and mouth but there is a suspected outbreak in Norfolk.

It has to be said that we should expect a lot of suspected outbreaks, with a bit of luck we won't actually get any more becoming confirmed ones.

The BBC has this.

Is there foot and mouth at a Scottish market?

The foot and mouth outbreak has now been confirmed.

However of more concern is the possibility that foot and mouth has spread to a market in Lanarkshire. With a bit of luck this will be a false alarm. If it is not then foot and mouth could have already spread far and wide.

On the plus side, local foot paths have already been closed and animal movement restrictions put in place. So at least the right things seem to be happening.

The BBC has this.

New Foot and Mouth Outbreak near Pirbright!

There have been reports of a new outbreak of foot an mouth, this time, some 15 miles from Pirbright and a it further away from the original outbreaks in early August.

DEFRA have ordered a precautionary cull of the herd affected and immediately put in place a control zone. Reports indicate a national ban on the movement of animals will follow shortly.

This is the worst news for farmers, and needless to say Pirbright will be high on the list of suspects.

My understanding is that Merial's operation there halted production of foot and mouth based vaccines when the last out break happened whilst the Institute of Animal Health carried on its work. As yet I have not heard that Merial have re commenced production. That leaves a suspect list of one, and may raise questions over budget cuts at the Institute.

The BBC has this.

The McCann's, the backlash begins.

It is with a huge amount of regret that I see this story developing.

I noted that Gerry McCann asked for privacy and all the news outlets sat around talking about how that was what they asked for, looking for new comments rather than taking the hint.

The story moves on now, with leaks, allegedly from the forensic service in Birmingham, that the "DNA" from the hire car hired 25 days after her disappearance is definitely Madeleine's and must have been from her body.

Apparently there are two samples, one an exact match and one a partial match.

Surely someone has to stop this DNA train and ask to get off and ask what it is based on, where is it leading and what does it prove?

I hold no particular candle for the McCann's, but then I wish them no ill will either. I have watched this situation unfold with sympathy but little comment. However, I do have to wonder if they are not about to find out what happens if you appeal to the general publics better nature for too long which is that it will come back and bite like a rabid dog.

The Telegraph has this.

Is the surge working in Iraq?

The short answer is yes though it still has the feel of too little too late.

Sunni tribes are also coming on board but that is more to do with Al Qada being a better recruiting sergeant for the USA than the USA is currently being for them in Iraq. (Which is very much down to the change in tactics brought in by General Patraeus who clearly knows what he is doing and seems to have learned a lot from the British way of doing things whilst we have in part forgotten but have not been able to do because we don't have anything like enough troops to do the job.)

For more on Iraq see here.

I just love Matt in the Telegraph!

It really need no other explanation does it?

You can see more Matt here.

If the car is so important why are the McCann's still driving it?

Is broadly the headline and import of this article in today's Mail on Sunday.

God question I'd say. Either the car is vital evidence in which case it should have been impounded or it isn't in which case the latest allegations are a load of old twaddle. There is of course a third possibility, namely that the police investigating the crime are in fact the Key Stone Cops.

Meanwhile, the McCann's are heading home. I suspect that their other children really miss home, as well as their sister Madeleine.

The Strange Case of Madeleine McCann, Gerry and Kate suspects?

When this story originally broke i did not blog about it because I had not got much to say that was not being said elsewhere.

We now reach an odd stage in proceedings though. It appears that forensics has found traces of blood in a hire car the McCann's hired some 25 days after Madeleine went missing. I have also heard that this is supposed to be Madeleine's blood.

Here I have a mental problem. Let us assume, as it seems the police are, that Madeleine did indeed die by accident (or perhaps design) at one of her parents hands on the night of May the 3rd.

We are then asked to believe that the one responsible got the collusion of the other to cover it up. Reading between the lines, this would mean finding somewhere to hide the body for 25 days, with the police buzzing around presumably looking for it, in which time it was bound to start smelling a bit unless refrigerated.

So there you are n Portugal, with a child in the fridge or freezer whilst all the police are looking for her, for 25 days? Then you moved the body?

The logistics of both hiding and moving a body are difficult. Also it has to be noted that people who have just been responsible for someones death and then hide the body do not behave normally. Are the Portuguese police saying they just did not notice this?

If true, why did they hand around for so long and organise such a media storm to keep the Madeleine story in the papers. It just does not make sense. (Yes I know you can argue it was an attempt to cover things up).

It is just bizzare.

I wonder if they have looked at the complete hire history of the car from the day Madeleine went missing until they found the blood? That may turn up something somewhat more credible.

I also find it hard to believe that two people would be as close as Gerry and Kate McCann appear to be if one of them had been responsible for the death. It would cause much arguments between them surely?

The BBC has this.

Foot and Mouth report out and blames poor maintenance

The report into the foot and mouth outbreak is out and it blames poor maintenance on the pipes handling waste.

It should be noted that these are the responsibility of the Institute of Animal Health, not Merial.

Under funding is probably the cause because people knew the pipe was an issue.

So it's all Gordon Brown's fault!

The BBC has this.

Regrettably DEFRA have not emailed me a copy of both reports as promised. Hmm..

Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.75%

Which is hardly a surprise as there are still major concerns over a credit crunch and banks being unwilling to lend each other money over night.

There is still the occasional flurry in the stock markets which clearly have the jitters over banking stocks.

This does leave the Bank of England with a problem though. At the moment it appears to be boxed in between the possibility that raising interest rates may cause a large crisis and not being able to raise them to deal with inflation even if it wanted to.

These clearly are not the best of times, they are not the worst either but it feels a bit like driving along a cliff edge at speed. One mistake and you are over the edge.

The BBC has this.

Food Additives Bad for your Children Shocker!

News we will have an announcement on the Religious practices of the Pope.

All papers (Well, quite a few) carry the story on the front page. The Daily Mail has this, The Times has this and this, whilst the Guardian has this, this and this and er.. this.

Usefully though we do get a list of the dodgy E numbers, which are:

• Tartrazine E102 Lemon yellow dye
• Carmoisine E122 Red food dye
• Sodium benzoate E211
• Ponceau 4R E124 Synthetic red dye
• Quinoline yellow E104

What is scary is the things some of these additives turn up in. Obviously you would expect soft drinks and sweets, but also some smoked haddock and some meats you would assume were fresh.

What is clear is that sometimes you only observe effects when these additives are used in combination, though Quinoline yellow E104 is banned in the USA, Australia, Japan and Norway because of its effects on children.

The big issue which also comes out from these stories is why has this not been looked at before given that the first research into the issue was 30 years ago.

Foot and Mouth, It was a broken pipe says BBC!

And there I was working on the basis that DEFRA would get the report out to all media outlets at the same time.

It seems that the foot and mouth virus was found in a broken pipe which during flooding could have spread it above ground to be carried out on tyres. The virus itself should not have been live in the pipe which it is believed leads from the Merial laboratories initial chemical treatment plant to the Institute of Animal Health's secondary treatment plant.

Apparently though the BBC also learns that the tests to fully differentiate the versions of the strain between Merial and the Institute of Animal Health still has not finished. The cynic in me has to wonder why.

I await the full report with interest.

The BBC has this.

Is DEFRA sitting on the Foot and Mouth report?

One of the problems with dealing with government particularly when you are in an opposition party is that you get dreadfully cynical.

The Health and Safety Executive have completed their second report, which could well point the blame at either Merial Animal Health or the Institute for Animal Health, on Friday and handed it to the Department for Farming and Rural Affairs, (DEFRA).

They have not as yet published it. This sort of thing does tend to make me a little cynical. However they have promised to publish it by the end of the week with the "Sprat" report by Professor Sprat of Imperial College into bio security at Pirbright. That is not too long to wait so perhaps I should quieten my cynicism and just wait.

The Retreat From Basra. Is it a defeat?

Well, it does depend on how you look at it.

If the victory condition was clearing out Ba'athist forces and liberating Basra, then job done, but that was done in 2003.

If the victory condition was to leave the place in some sort of viable state then this is a abject failure. The Sun leads with the headline "The Lions of Basra" and rightly so, the failure was not of our troops making but our politicians, and indeed American ones. (Article not available online yet)

Our troops have been brave. Very brave. They have also fought well. The trouble is there has never been enough of them and they have not had the support they need.

We have never had the troops on the ground to do the job properly. We also don't have the troops on the ground in Afghanistan either, but that is a whole other disaster waiting to happen.

The Times report here highlights the mixed feelings of people on the ground. Some welcome the "end of the occupation" whilst others are in fear not knowing who will protect them from the militias.

Let us make no mistake here. We chose to go into both Afghanistan and Iraq. Practically we did have to go into Afghanistan, but we have resourced neither sufficiently to do the job.

Populus Poll puts Labour and Conservatives neck and neck

The Times reports a Populus poll conducted over the weekend which places Labour on 37% (-2) the Conservatives on 36% (+3) and the Liberal Democrats on 18% (+3). This, according to the report would give Gordon Brown a 20 seat majority. It is headlined "Voters end debate on snap election"

I can see him going for that, but then I have always thought that we would go the whole length of the Parliament and I have not seen anything to shift my view, not even the Brown bounce which I expected to end, and it almost has.

To be fair I do not expect a Conservative lead in the polls until October, and polls will fluctuate a little after that showing neck and necks and small leads for each until late November when I expect a steady but small Conservative lead, and if David Cameron and team do the job right, that lead will grow between now and the general election in May 2010.


In an effort to pad the result out there is comment on both marginal seats and the south. The problem here is that even over a number of polls the samples in these areas are small and not balanced and weighted in the way they are for the whole poll leading to all sorts of inaccuracies.

Citizens Juries?

Much has been made of Citizens Juries. Tony Blair talked about them and Gordon Brown is now.

The plan seems to be that there will be groups of "citizens" who sit on a group and chat about policy areas.

The questions are:

• Who picks the jury?
• Do they get paid?
• Isn't Parliament supposed to do this sort of thing?
  

The Unacceptable face of the Conservative Party..

Has been invited to advise the Labour government on terrorism.

Patrick Mercer was described by Labour as the unacceptable face of the Conservative party, after this storm hit him, in March this year costing him his job.

Now they want his advice!

Amazing.

How politics changes.

Brown Bounce evaporates!

Conservative home carries reports of two polls, one by ComRes (formerly the pollster known as Communicate Research) puts The Conservatives and Labour on 36% each whilst it has the Liberal Democrats on 15% (unbelievably low). Presumably this poll is or was to appear in the Independent but alas it is not there yet.

Also it carries news that GMTV commissioned a YouGov poll giving Labour on 38%, the Conservatives on 35% with the Liberal Democrats on 15% again (with the same caveat).

I always thought the brown bounce would disappear. That is just the way politics works. What has irritated me though is the number of people panicking. Shame on them.

Everyone wants a Referendum except Gordon Brown!

It seems that on the question of the EU Constitution or treaty if you prefer everyone wants a referendum. Pro Europeans want one, even the leader in today's Observer wants one running the headline:

This cowardly refusal to make the political case for Europe

The problem is this however. There is no case or desire for the Europe that Europe's political elites want to build. All over Europe people want an European union, but they don't want one that interferes quite so much and they certainly do not one with an overarching identity.

Want they do want is free-ish trade and co operation between governments where possible.

Someone needs to make the case for not driving headlong into a European super state, and in part that is what David Cameron is doing by leaving the EPP (European Peoples Party) grouping in the European parliament and forming a new group of right of center parties less keen on massive integration.

Gerry McCann close to breakdown due to press pressure, Express reports

It is hard to make this sort of story up, but according to the Sunday Express Gerry McCann is close to a nervous breakdown because of all the media speculation. So what do they do?

Speculate some more!

To be fair to the Daily and Sunday Diana though, the report does say that Gerry is close to breaking point over what is being reported in the Portuguese media.

Jackson's scathing criticism of the USA in Iraq

The Telegraph carries an article today about the forthcoming auto biography of General Sir Mike Jackson, called "Soldier" after 45 years in the army.

The article carries some of the criticisms in his book. Specific areas of complaint are:

• The pentagon was put in charge of post war Iraq.
• That there was no effective plan for post war Iraq, as Donald Rumsfeld had thrown the State departments one in the bin.
• There were not enough troops to bring order. General Jackson estimates we should have had 400,000 yet even in the surge it is proving difficult to reach half that number.
• Disbanding the Iraqi army was a bad idea.

It has to be said I agree with all those criticisms. It was clear that some things were mistakes as they happened and you did not need hind sight to do so. The problem is Donald Rumsfeld did not listen at the time and generals in the Pentagon who disagreed ended up retiring early.

I have my own take on the mess in Iraq which covers more areas, here.

You can read more about Iraq here.

Private Poll Puts Labour and Conservatives neck and neck!

There were reports that the Conservatives had private polling indicating they were doing much better than YouGov's latest poll suggested.

For example Ben Brogan had this, naming the pollster. As a result Anthony Wells asked Populus to release their report under the British Polling council rules which they have now done. Anthony carries this.

The headline figures are Labour 37% (-2), Conservatives 36% (+3) whilst the Liberal Democrats are on 16% (+1).

Interesting. We are due a Times commissioned Populus poll next week sometime.

Marriage, Telling it how it is

Yesterday on Newsnight there was an interview with David Cameron, my favourite economics correspondent and the daughter of one of my favourite musicians, Stephanie Flanders.

From my point of view it told me nothing new, but then as I am a Conservative, you would hope I had a clue about the thinking of the Conservative party.

Opinions have varied as to whether David Cameron came off well or not. Most say he did.

The one point in question is when Stephanie Flanders said that she had a child, and asked if David Cameron if he thought she should be married.

We do not know by whom she had this child, nor the relationship she has with the child's father.

David Cameron laid out in fluffy language what the Conservative party position is.

I would have been somewhat more direct.

My position would have been this:

The Conservative party believes that marriage is the best option.

If elected we will make it clear that marriage is the best option.

We will, if elected reduce the penalty of getting married.

What you, as an individual do with your own life, is your own choice.

End of discussion.

Newssnight's infuriatingly hard to link to what you want to web page is here. I would link direct to the show or any articles written about it there, but obviously the person who runs that website is a muppet.

GCSE Science to be dumbed down?

The Times yesterday carried this article on how GCSE science exams are being dumbed down.

I have read the example paper and some of the questions are good. Most are asinine whilst some are based on subjective criteria where the question setter does not understand the subject matter enough to be able to make a comment let alone set a question and some of the multiple choice question's have the potential for all answers to be correct.

Utter stupidity.

I will Fisk some of the government comments and the paper at a later date. It does however break my heart. It is clear that science in this country is not being dumbed down. Clearly it has been already.

A Clarification on the "Arms Dealer" Story

I Chris Paul has written up his comments on my story which cribbed from a report in the Sunday Times. I said that the times had reported that Imrand Khan had donated money to labour via a group called the "Muslim Friends of Labour" which is similar it seems to the Midland Industrial Council.

I note that, but frankly don't care, my gripe is that Labour really don't like the Midlands Industrial Council so should not be caught in similar circumstances.

I also note that said Imrand Khan has been linked in the report to an arms dealer/salesman. In these circumstances Labour folks seem to go off on one if it is a Conservative donor, but as yet appear not to have in this case. Again, I personally do not have a problem with this trade any more than I would have with a knife salesman. Guns and knives are tools that we make extensive use of, and it is only if someone is trading them irresponsibly that an issue arises and there is no such allegation here.

The point of my story is not that I find Imrand Khan has actually done anything wrong, because as far as I can see it, he hasn't. The point is that had he been a Conservative donor rather than a Labour one, then people like Chris Paul would have gone off the deep end.

Chris Paul hopes I have insurance. Presumably for libel. Well, in this case I would not need it, as even if my facts are wrong I am not accusing Mr Khan of doing anything that is either wrong*, or indeed should attract opprobrium from anyone, it certainly does not from me. In order for there to be an actionable libel you have to make an incorrect statement** about someone which would damage their reputation amongst right thinking people. I can't see that it would, and obviously I exclude Chris Paul from this, as he thinks many things that are legal are wrong.

So my story is not an attack on Mr Khan, but on Chris Paul who insists all sorts of things are bad, but when it is pointed out to him that his own side does it seems to be a tad silent.


* According to the Times report the Electoral Commission are investigating the Muslim Friends of Labour. That does not mean there is any wring doing there, though obviously they may find some.

**Technically you can say something about someone which is true, and still be found guilty of libel. For example you can bring up a criminal conviction which is spent under the provisions of the 1974 Rehabilitation of Offenders act. There is a defence that to raise such a conviction is in the public interest, and also if I remember correctly the claimant would have to show malice.

Gordon Brown to face massive rebellion over EU treaty

Apparently, according to today's Telegraph, which is not as yet available online, Gordon Brown may have up to 120 MP's rebelling against the EU constitution/treaty unless there is a referendum.

When the report comes online I will link to it.

Interesting. Gordon Brown has already had more rebellions in his first month as PM than all others put together since the war, and he has only had one month or parliament sitting.

Could make politics interesting, though I suspect that Gordon will twist the odd arm or two.

Labour's Lead cut in New ICM Poll

The latest ICM poll is out in today's Guardian. It shows Labour at 39% (+1) Conservatives at 34% (+2) and the Liberal Democrats at 18% (-2).

The Guardian chooses the the headline "Poll warning to Brown over October election gamble" and then goes on about regional variations and trends on particular issues.

The problem with the regional variations is that the sample sizes are just too small to make them worth looking at seriously though they do show Labour strong up north, down in Scotland and Wales, doing well in other regions but not in the south. Crucially however the Liberal Democrats are doing very badly in the South where their voters are going Conservative.

As I said though, the sample sizes on a region by region basis are too small and so too volatile to be taken seriously.

The interesting thing though is the Conservatives leading Labour on health, crime and the economy.

I stand my prediction that the first poll to show the Brown bounce to go will be the Communicate Research at the beginning of October.

Apart from that the poll is fairly dull really.

Labour getting money from arms dealers shocker!

Labour is potentially about to get involved in a new sleaze row involving money. The Sunday Times reports that Labour has its equivalent to the Midlands Industrial Council which Labour party supporters have complained about bitterly.

It gets worse, however, one of the key figures in their equivalent, the Muslim Friends of Labour, Imran Khand has set up businesses with a Pakistan based arms dealer.

What would Chris Paul say? Chris who? You know, the Labour blogger who thinks Michael Gove can't be our shadow Schools Minister because he happens to have spent some time in private education. Alas Chris "double standards" Paul has not as yet called for Ed Balls to be moved whose whole secondary education was private.

Well, Chris also wrote this article about someone who had donated money to the Conservative party, and has links to the arms trade. Obviously Chris Paul will be be getting on his high horse about Labour getting dirty money. Or perhaps not, as he does seem to have double standards.

Ministerial Cover up as gun crime quadruples under Labour

You often hear ministers trot out numbers that show that crime is failing. In fact according to the British Crime Survey it has been falling since 1994.

However that survey hides important factors such as crime against the under 16's, rapes and murders.

There is no doubt our streets are less safe than they used to be even 10 years ago.

The Sunday Times has this article, prompted by David Davis, the Conservative shadow Home Secretary highlighting a four fold increase in gun crime since 1998. In short 10 people a day are either killed of injured by guns. These guns are for the most part illegally held so all the gun control legislation in the world is not going to help. What is needed is some fresh thinking on the issue.

Labour clearly is not working.

A Standing Ovation for Rhys Jones

I must confess I get a bit depressed when I hear of a minutes silence for this or that. We have a silence for the millions who died in both world wars. That is appropriate. So much loss on such a massive scale.

I am impressed with the parents of Rhys Jones, Melanie and Steve, and indeed his primary school classmates. Rhys's parents asked not for a minutes silence for his death, but for applause for his for his life. Very moving and very right. Rhys's normal seat at Goodison park remained empty. (See the Sunday Times here)

Meanwhile his classmates have set up their own tribute site, here. It is also very moving.

It is good though to see a bit of British grit, the Dunkirk spirit showing through though.

This must be such a sad time for them all.

May Rhys Jones rest in peace whilst his killers are brought to justice.

Yet more youth crime

I was very saddened to hear that a 21 year old described as having learning difficulties, Brent Martin, was beaten so badly in Sunderland on Thursday that he died of his injuries today.

The police have arrested a number of people, a woman of 21 and three youths, two aged 17 and one 16.

There is no doubt that this is a horrible crime. Clearly for a small number of youths, something is going very very wrong.

As a society we need to do something, though passing more laws is probably not the answer.

The BBC has this on the attack and this on the death of Brent Martin.

Youth Crime, and the murder of Rhys Jones

You expect murders from time to time. You even expect children to be murdered (usually by family) from time to time. However we are going through the most awful spate of murders of children by children, with the 11 year old Rhys Jones being the latest victim. (See the BBC here)

It is truly sad to see so much young life thrown away, by children, who when (or perhaps if) caught will also spend years in prison.

As if to underline this shocking state of affairs, youths are also attacking and killing others too. Sophie Lancaster (21) and her boyfriend Robert Maltby were walking in a local park in Stubbylee park in Bacup, Rossendale when they were set on by a gang of youths between 15 and 17. Sophie died in hospital whilst Robert was seriously injured. (See BBC here).

Clearly something is going seriously wrong. Youth violence is on the rise, both on young people and on everyone else.

Foot and Mouth, Where is the updated HSE report?

Firstly I am pleased to see that the foot and mouth outbreak appears to be limited, I would not be surprised to hear of a few more scares, but would be shocked if there was another outbreak.

During the initial outbreak suspicion fell on the laboratories at Pirbright, there was a flurry of activity, an initial HSE report and spinning blaming it all on Merial.

Two things are relevant here. Firstly the HSE report clearly identified the strain as being from the Pirbright. The second is that the initial report promised further tests to say whether the sub strain was from the Animal Health Institute or Merial.

Where is it?

For more on foot and mouth, see here, and for the initial HSE report see here.

Are Gollywogs racist? or indeed racist?

There is a storm in Sussex about the sale of golliwogs, which some people complain are racist.

You can see the video report from South East today here.

You will note that one of the shopkeepers selling them is himself of Afro Caribbean origin.

Let us get this straight. A golly wog is a rag doll, that happens to be of Afro Caribbean appearance (well some parts of Africa any way as there are many racial groups there).

Is it wrong to sell a rag doll of Caucasian appearance? If not, what is wrong with one of Afro Caribbean appearance?

Offence is often in the eye of the beholder in much the same way as beauty is. I wonder who finds them offensive, and if you are going to give a view, could you please state your own ethnic origin?

Update 22:00

I should add that I can see how people may find the name offensive (golly wog as opposed to golly doll)

Longer trips to Accident and Emergency costs lives Shocker!

In a study reported on in Today's Grauniad, an unbelievable report says that longer trips to Accident and Emergency costs lives.

Government has denied this, and has also refuted claims that the Pope (Benedict XVI, a suspiciously Catholic name) is a Catholic as well as insisting that bears do not defecate in woodland.

What is bizarre is that this statement of the bl**ding obvious requires some sort of study. The study was in fact paid for by the Department of health and shows a direct correlation between distance to an A&E department and mortality rates, though to be fair I suspect the issue is more related to time to treatment.

The thing is that Labour are trying to convince everyone that centralising services is a good idea. Red Dawn Primarolo has been on the airwaves spewing propaganda that both the medical profession and patients want this. This is disingenuous in the extreme. It is true that some consultants favour it, and it is also true that there is a case for some types of treatments to be carried out at specialist centers such as cancer care, major heart surgery and so on, but crucially not emergency care in the case of either heart or stroke care (you need to stabilise a patient quickly). There is considerably less of a case for the centralisation of maternity units as it can be very hard to get maternity places in Sussex as it is. Clearly in this area there is a distinct lack of capacity and traveling long distance whilst in labour is problematic in any case.

In fact most GP's and patient groups are up in arms about service closures, with mass demonstrations for keeping services at many hospitals including the Princess Royal in Haywards Heath whilst of course Labour ministers have been out in protest as well.

The BBC has this.

Baby snatchers at work even where they believe there is no risk?

It appears that the baby snatchers are at work even where they do not believe there is an immediate risk.

A couple in Calderdale in Yorkshire taped a conversation with social services and published it on the internet (see below)



The thing is that they are talking about taking extreme action on nothing other than suspicion. No facts, just a suspicion. To take a new born baby away from its blood family at birth is wrong unless you are sure that the child will come to harm. In this case the council are certain there is no short term risk. So why do it?

However the reason the story came to light is that social services are in a bit of a tiz because they have been recorded and the recording has been made public.

Tough titty chaps, the data protection act does not cover you.

The Telegraph has this whilst Dizzy thinks has this and John Hemming has this and this.

Oil prices set to rise

It is with regret that I expect oil prices to rise, as hurricane Dean threatens oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rather oddly summer in the USA causes an increase in oil usage as Americans get in the cars with engines that are impracticably large and set off around the USA so pushing up prices anyway. However after hurricane Katrina disrupted oils supplies in 2005, expect worries about hurricane Dean to drive up oil prices as at this stage, Dean is stronger than Katrina was at a similar stage.

With a bit of luck it won't do too much damage, however as the sea in the gulf gets hotter year by year so the hurricanes get stronger.

NHS, Just where has all the money gone?

Today the Daily Mail carries a story of a woman, Catherine Brown who was advised to have a chemically induced abortion at 18 weeks, because otherwise she would have a severe risk of death. The procedure involves inducing labour early and results in a live, if short lived birth.

When she went in to labour in the brand spanking new Queen's Hospital Romford, opened at a cost of £238 million last December, there were no staff on hand to assist. Staff were found, who said they did not have the training to help and left here to it.

With her mothers help she gave birth to Edward in a toilet. No medical staff were in attendance. Edward died shortly afterwards. To make matters much worse the hospital almost disposed of Edward with medical waste.

The hospital has issued a statement expressing regret and saying they have now bolted that stable door. This is clearly not satisfactory.

There are many other instances of Labour cuts and overspend making a mess of the NHS.

In a hospital which has lost its Accident and Emergency department a patient fainted whilst having a blood sample taken. The member of staff carrying out the procedure called for help and was simply told to call an ambulance to taker the patient to an A and E elsewhere.

In central Sussex we have our local hospital, the Princess Royal is under threat. Both the maternity and accident and emergency (already downgraded) are facing closure. As it is women in labour sometimes have to travel many miles to other hospitals when there is no space at the Princess Royal also finding that there is no space at the Royal Sussex in Brighton either.

There is not the spare capacity in Sussex to cope with hospital services being cut, yet the local health trusts, having wasted pots of money wants to do it.

The NHS is breaking down in places, Labour having made a complete hash of running it. It would at least be understandable if vast sums of money were not being spent, but it is hard to fathom how this amount of money being spent could lead to these sorts of horror stories.

Normal Service to be resumed Saturday

Normal service will be resumed during Saturday evening.

Just thought I would let you know.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Financial Markets bounce back

Well at least there is some good news on the financial markets
tonight. Yesterday's losses have been wiped out.

It did take the US Federal Reserve to lower its inter bank interest
rates making it clear that it will not allow any good banks to go down
though.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Black Thursday! Exclusive to all papers!

There has been another day of losses on the stockmarket today, a bit
like last Friday which I called black Friday. The papers did not major
on it then, but they are now.

The markets are of course looking for any opportunity to over react.

There are issues in the markets which I will cover when I am back home
on Saturday, but nothing to panic about. However if the press sell the
bad news too hard they are in danger of causing a massive loss of
confidence, thereby causing a bigger problem.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Foot and Mouth suspected in Surrey as well

As well as the outbreak on the Romney Marshes, at Honeychild Manor
farm near St. Mary on the marsh there is also a suspected outbreak in
Surrey outside of the existing exclusion zones.

I do hope that these are just cases of over catious farmers otherwise
foot and mouth could turn up anywhere.

By the way, the reason for the odd formatting and signatur on the
bottom of articles is that they are sent in by email.

I also can't respond to comments from my phone.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Foot and Mouth in Kent?

DEFRA has confirmed that they have set up a tempory exclusion zone in
Kent. This is precautionary while test results come in.

What is odd is that they will not say where the farm is. Obviously the
public could do with knowing so they can avoid the area. Apparently
the reason is that they don't want lots of helicopters overhead
scarring cattle and potentially spreading disease.

Every time there is an outbreak the press get out their helicopters
and use them untill they are asked not to. Clearly the media are being
very irresponsible.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

De Regulation a lurch to the right?

So John Redwood's policy group on competitiveness has signaled some of
its findings and is looking to cut business costs by £14 billion by
reducing regulations. As John Redwood has said this is effectively a
tax cut, but one which does not harm the exchequer. The BBC has been
leading all day on either Labour's criticism or actually implying cuts
in services.

Even the Telegraph has picked up more on Labour's criticism than the
substance now, which is odd given that it was there story to start
with.

However the idea that this is some form of lurch to the right is
phooye (as Boris would say) because Labour are supposedly in the
deregulation game also trying to pass a bill aimed at reducing
regulations, but at the whim of government ministers signing executive
orders without the need for parliamentary scrutiny. (see the saving
parliament link on the right of my blog for more).

At least all our reductions in regulations will be subject to
parliamentary scrutiny. The truth is that it is Labour who are off on
the far right wing here not us, yet the media are happy to trot out
their spin.

How sad. The Conservative blogosphere needs to fight back.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Labour lead slashed by 4 points in as many hours!

At this rate there will be a Conservative government by the end of the week!

Actually no, I just bring news of another poll from ICM in the Sunday
Mirror that has Labour on 39, the Conservative's on 33 and the Liberal
Democrats on 18.

Poll junkies tend to take ICM and YouGov seriously but it is
interesting to see how far they diverge today. That said it is the
silly season and a silly time to do a poll. That does beg the question
though, why are all these polls going on in August when that normally
doesn't happen?

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

10 Point poll lead for Labour!

Apparently tomorrow's Sunday Times carries news of a YouGov poll
placing Labour on 42 (up 2) Conservative's on 32 (nc) and the Liberal
Democrats on 14 (down 2).

I'd say a lot more, but it is an August poll. Not good news for us
Conservative's but I'll start taking polls seriously from mid
September onwards.

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Rubber Necking Almost Causes pileup on the M20

Near, or possibly at Leeds Castle in Kent there is a tethered helium
ballon with a gondola underneath. Now that is something you do not see
every day. I noticed it miles away.

As we got closer. all of a sudden someone, many many cars in front
breaked. to have a better look. The car behind (or a car behind) was
caught by surpise and braked harder sending a ripple effect down th
line of traffic until several cars. including mine had to do emergency
stops.

I do wish people would be carefull when they rubber necked. Here's a
novell idea. if you want to slow down, don't do it in the over taking
lanes!

--
Kind regards

Benedict White

Blogging will be lite next week

As I will be on holiday.

Still, I can write the odd article from my phone.

Financial market Chaos: Dow shows its metal

Well, we have had another day of heavy losses on the financial markets, with various central banks piling in the overnight lending market to keep the banking sector afloat.

However, despite early heavy losses on the Dow Jones index it recovered to finish only 31.14 points down. However it did take 3 interventions from the US Federal Reserve and some heavy hints that it won't let banks go down that did it.

Ultimately what has happened is the bursting of a speculative boom based on takeover hopes that overvalued shares by up to 10%. Now there is unlikely to be the credit to fund that, shares have returned to the level they should have been at.

Good.

Now all we need is for the banks to behave sensibly, and we won't have a problem.

The BBC has this, whilst the FT has this.

Black Friday as Financial market chaos continues

Shares are still tumbling on the worldwide stock markets, the FTSE 100 having dropped 200 points in so far today, 10% down from July.

The reason for the current crisis seems to be that BNP Paribas bank in France suspended trading in 3 investment funds linked to sub prime lending in the USA housing market.

The knock on from this is general concern that there may be some kind of tightening of world wide credit reducing the amount of money available to fund takeovers.

It seems to follow from this that what is going on is the bursting of a speculative asset bubble, where traders had valued share stock on the basis that there may be a takeover bid rather than the intrinsic value of the company itself. Now the market thinks that takeovers are less likely they are readjusting their positions accordingly. However clearly the central banks are very concerned. The European Central bank has pumped in €156 billion in the last two days to prop up banks. The sums are vast.

Seems fair enough, and nothing to panic about. But there is another lurking concern that a credit crunch will reduce spending in other areas causing a recession. This sort of thing irritates me. What is happening is the heard mind of the financial markets running around like headless chickens either overvaluing certain types of assets or over correcting when they get their fingers burnt a bit.

One area which may be affected is the will of banks to lend money in mortgages at the sort of silly multipliers that they have been. That would cause a slow down in the housing market, which would be no bad thing if it is gentle.

Still, the fundamentals are still reasonably good, and if we can persuade the markets to calm down we will be alright. Given government and consumer debt and borrowing, we could be in real trouble if there is a hard crunch.

The BBC has this, whilst the FT has this.

New Foot and Mouth outbreak, farmer adamant that it is not foot and mouth

I reported that there was a new foot and mouth scare last night outside of the security zones. This morning the farmer of that farm was on Radio 4's the Today program, and was adamant that his cattle did not have foot and mouth.

Apparently as a precaution he called in a vet, in part as he has fields close to one of the other farms. The vet looked at his cattle, and took advice from DEFRA which led to the closure but was certain that the cattle did not have foot and mouth. The measures are a precaution only.

Phew!

The BBC has this.

Oh, and the government has now, a week late, agreed to close foot paths in the protection zone. I just hope it is not too late.

Tower Hamlets Shadwell By-election result

Apparently Professor Michael Keith's smears of racism did not help him out enough to win.

The result was:

Miah (Respect) 1512
Keith (Lab) 1415
Crossey (Con) 476
Clarke (LD) 98

Hmm..

Will have to look at last times numbers tomorrow to see how they really look.

Hat tip to Peter Golds for the result.

Foot and Mouth: Has it spread to Dorking?

Just as everyone thought it was safe to go back to the country side there is news of a suspected case near Dorking (On the Westcott side).

I could of course spew hours of nonsense speculation but I won't.

What I will say is that whilst the animal movement ban was good, the lack of restrictions on footpaths was bad.

I also think that we may have let our guard down so soon.

I do hope it was not the deer that spread it.

The BBC has this.

Equity Markets slump as credit crunch starts to bite

According to the Financial Times there are some concerns at the liquidity of certain funds held by some banks.

This is causing a bit of panic equity selling. The European Central Bank has stepped in with a massive 94 billion Euro intervention, the largest since the September the 11th 2001 terrorist attacks. There must be some concern there.

I suspect equities (shares) are going to fall a bit more. So you will see things like the FTSE 100, Dow and so on fall a bit.

The problem we have is that there is very little room for manouver at the treasury. It is already borrowing far too much considering we are in a period of economic growth, to fund public spending. If tax receipts go down too far whilst unemployment rises we will have a bigger problem.

The economy of the world has got the jitters. Lets hope it does not last.

Pirbirght, A legionaries outbreak?

According to reports there has been a case of legionaries disease linked to the Institute of Animal Health at Pirbright. This outbreak predates the foot an mouth outbreak. Although the person who caught the disease does work at Pirbright initial investigations show no link there. Other sites that the person visited are being investigated.

It is probably nothing, as it does not seem to be linked to the Pirbright site, yet. However if it dies end up being linked there then there will be questions to answer.

The BBC has this.

Foot and Mouth: Are Merial spinning back?

There is now no doubt in my mind that there is a blame game going on, between the government and Merial Animal Health who share the Pirbright site with the Institute of Animal Health, a government laboratory who's budget has been cut whilst been criticised for potential lapses in bio security.

The bottom line appears to be this:

It is now almost certain that the outbreak came from the Pirbright site, so it is either the public or private body that leaked it.

There is a subtle difference between the virus stock in both organisations, and after a while we will know who leaked.

There is no need to preempt a short investigation, we can just wait a week surely?

However, as can been seen from this Telegraph report (to be fair mostly compiled from things I already knew) Merial are starting to gear up their operation to deal with the preemptive smears of the government and in particular Gordon Brown.

A Strategic Defeat as we prepare to desert the good people of Basra

It is with great regret that I see the situation unfolding in Basra.

The British Army is preparing to leave it to the various militias, who have effective control of the situation on the ground. They have infiltrated the security services at all levels and get training, weaponry and funds from Iran, with, or without the consent of the central government there.

I have been concerned that the basic things not only were not done to secure Iraq in the first place, but have continued not to be done.

So now we have a situation where we are going to leave Basra, with a mission far from accomplished, to descend into chaos. Many people there want us to saty, because they fear the militias. All those people who helped us and hoped we would succeed are now in the firing line.

The problem is that this mission has been under resourced from the start. What is more we have not done anything like enough to control the borders.

Guido has this, Dizzy has this, The Washington Post has this, whilst the Times has this.

For more on Iraq see here.

Labour in racist smear shocker!

Apparently there is a by election in Tower Hamlets, and as it happens the former leader of the council one Professor Michael Keith (Labour smear mongers party) is trying to gain a seat on the council. He is a friend of Ruth Kelly.

He has said that David Davis, Shadow Home Secretary, called for a block of sheltered housing , allocated as Muslim only, should be burnt down.

David Davis said nothing of the kind, what he said was that an allocation policy of that sort entrenches segregation and was wrong.

Professor Michael Keith stands by his comments, though apparently he alleges he meant them "metaphorically", however Said Awarsi, shadow community cohesion minister has written to her counterpart, Hazel Blairs asking for an apology.

Frankly this is the lowest dirtiest kind of politics, Labour either needs to deal with it, or accept the consequences.

Iain Dale has this, whilst the Daily Mail has this.

Foot and Mouth: The Gardener did it!

News reports are now centering on an allotment and its tenant as a possible source of the outbreak.

(presumably for What seems to be the thinking is that said gardener works at PirbrightMerial as it is they who are being spun into the frame) may have walked some from the Pirbright site and then onto his (or indeed hers) allotment from where it spread.

From reports I have mentioned before in the Sun, it appears there are stories about of people ignoring bio security rules so arguably this is possible. However I still find it unlikely.

What is more interesting though is that the Labour government which was so upset about spinning and leaks in the Cash for Honours/Peerages investigation is clearly leaking as much advanced information as it can get its hands on despite the fact that this investigation is presumably going to be short and the results should be out soon.

Hmm... So it is alright to leak ongoing reports of investigations if you are laying the blame on someone else but not when Labour are in the frame?

For more on foot and mouth see here.

Jargon Busting Going Forward

Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council is pushing the envelope on enabling customer focused communication with its stakeholders.

The aim is apparently to remove meaningless twaddle from its Internet presence to enhance the customer experience. As this Google search shows they need to step up to the plate and give it one more heave, in order to ensure a truly satisfactory customer experience.

"Going forward" the council has done some "blue sky thinking" on how to "flag up" jargon in its "information architecture" using "joined up thinking". Alas as the links in the previous sentence indicate they may not have succeeded.

If you want a plain English explanation for this waffle, see Dizzy Thinks here.

Foot and Mouth: Its all Merial's fault!

I have read the Health and Safety Executive's interim report on the foot and mouth outbreak, and reported on it here. It is equivocal, because frankly we just do not at this stage know who is to blame, nor how it happened.

However, I note that all news broadcasts I have listened to from the BBC seem to be pointing in one direction and one direction only, namely Merial Animal Health.

This seems to me to be unnecessary pre conclusion spinning. I am aware that the odds are very much in favour of the Pirbright site being the start of the infection, however the investigation is very much ongoing. There is no need to say more, nor cast any blame, yet it seems the spinners are on the case.

It may well be that they are guilty as charged, but I would say two things:

• The jury is out.
• They will come out fighting.

What is more, if the initial spin turns out to be wrong, there will be trouble ahead.

HSE Pirbright report, initial findings

The Health and Safety Executives initial report is available here.

Firstly it says that the strain that caused the outbreak is the same as the one worked on at both Merial Animal Health and the Institute of Animal Health. What it fails to do, is to say which one was responsible. Further tests are being carried out to ascertain which one it was.

On potential airborne release, the report says:

• We found no evidence of any working practices or incidents such as laboratory spillages or leakages from plant or equipment which could have led to a release of the FMDV strain within the contained working environment at either organisation.
  We confirmed that all air being discharged to atmosphere from the contained working environments is first passed through a minimum of two high-efficiency particulate arrestance (HEPA) air filters.
• We confirmed that there is continuous monitoring of the pressures of the ventilation systems of the facility and that the HEPA filters are routinely integrity tested in line with regulatory requirements.
  

Well, that seems to fly in the face of what people at the site have been telling the Sun, here.

However the report initially doubts wind because it was in the wrong direction for most of the time frame. Further investigation is being carried out.

On waterborne release, the report is clear that this could not have happened in the animal isolation unit of the IoH, because they are in essence very happy with the effluent treatment plant.

The rest of the IoH and Merial share a system, which the HSE is unhappy with, however they doubt that the outbreak could have spread from the site to the farm because the flow of water was wrong.

So having ruled out all other possible causes they have only left human intervention, either accidental or deliberate, and reading one of the articles in the sun in my earlier post that is a possibility. They are investigating this angle as well.

In summary:

• It is highly likely that the outbreak started on the Pirbright site.
• We do not as yet know whether it was the IoH or Merial.
• We have indications it was not air or waterborne, but no firm answers.
• Humans are likely to get the blame.

So, we are not much further forward from what we knew already. However apparently the report may have been delayed while the political implications were considered (BBC Radio 4 reports). Hmm.. this has the makings of a good conspiracy theory.

Pirbright leaking like a sieve!

One of the interesting things about Pirbright right now, is not so much that it is physically leaking like a sieve, though according to previous reports it is not airtight, (See this here from the Sun and earlier foot an mouth posts for links to reports) but that its staff are leaking information to the press like a sieve.

According to this report in the Sun, lots of workers are telling them of all sorts of safety breaches that staff routinely get away with. If true this indicates a severe failure of management.

The journalists are out looking for a story, and you can bet they will find one.

Labour MP's fail to back Boris Johnson's mayoral bid shocker!

Two Labour MP's (Diane Abbott, MP for Hackney North, and Dawn Butler, mp for Brent South) have spurned Boris Johnson's London Mayoral bid.

In a statement I just made up, Boris said "Crikey! Cripes! I was hoping to get the backing of all Labour MP's but now these two have some out against me, all is lost! I shall have to think very carefully about my political future."

Editorial note. Boris Johnson is in the race to be nominated to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London.

The BBC had this ridiculous story, whilst Iain Dale has this, part of which is by Andrew Gilligan.

Pirbright Leak, it wasn't me gov!

Somewhat unsurprisingly both laboratories on the Pirbright site are confident that they followed procedures and it was not their facilities that leaked foot and mouth. I am not surprised because these people are not stupid or careless. Whilst there is a link to the site, due to the strain of the virus, I would still be surprised if it came from there.

However if it did not come from there, then where did it come from? The strain is the same one that was responsible for the 1967 foot and mouth outbreak and as far as I know has not been seen in the wild since. Once you have excluded the impossible, what ever remains, however improbable must be the answer. It will be interesting to see what the Health and Safety Executive makes of it.

The newspapers are going heavy on the Pirbright link with this from the Telegraph here, the Guardian here and the Daily Mail, never wishing to over dramatise a story goes with the headline "Plume of foot and mouth virus casts 30-mile shadow of fear" presumably in an effort to comfort its readers.

The interesting thing about the Daily Mail story is that Iain Dale has posted a theory that foot and mouth could have been spread by wild deer, here, which would be of far greater concern, because if wild deer had the disease and were spreading it about, we would need to be hunting with mass packs of dogs to eradicate it, which has of course been made illegal by a bunch of lefty class warriors in the commons who don't like toffs on horses even if they are not toffs.

If it does turn out to be from Pirbright then how it hits the fan will depend on whether it was the government lab, which has had funding cut and was (and still is) in need of major refurbishment to keep it safe, or the nice private facilities on the same site. (For funding and refurbmishment issues see here and here)

Politically, it could get interesting.

Result in Lebanon's by elections

Members of the Lebanese parliament who support the government, and are anti Syrian seem to have a higher death rate that those of the opposition.

3 have been assassinated so far, reducing the governments majority.

There have been 2 by elections today to replace Pierre Gemayel, a member of the cabinet, and member for Metn shot dead, and Walid Eido, member for Beirut's second district.

In the latter al-Amin Itani has won a landslide victory for the ruling coalition.

However in Metn the position is less clear. Michel Aoun of the Free patriotic movement claimed victory for his candidate Dr. Camille Khoury, however this is disputed by the Phalange party and its candidate ex-President Amin Gemayel, father of the murdered Pierre.

Until a few late ballot boxes were opened Gemayel was clearly in the lead.

The result is key, as the government needs to retain its majority and elect a new president in December. However whilst the pro western governing coalition has a simple majority in parliament, it does need two thirds of the MP's to turn up to make the vote corate. There will be more political trouble ahead.

For more see The Beirut Daily Star here for Metn and here for Beirut's second district, whilst the BBC has this.

Gordon Brown: Lucky, unlucky or just a Jonah?

In the five weeks since Gordon Brown became Prime minister we have had a failed terrorist attack, two floods and now a (hopefully minor) foot and mouth outbreak.

Some have it that Gordon Brown has been unlucky to face 3 (or 4 depending on how you count the floods) crisis in 5 weeks, while others say he is lucky because those events have shown him to be statesmanlike and will help him gain votes.

Interesting debate.

However perhaps he is just a Jonah, bringing us all bad luck? Anyone considered that?

I wonder what the odds are on a plague of frogs?

Foot and Mouth outbreak linked to government laboratory at Pirbright

When I first heard suspicions earlier in the day that as Pirbright Institute for Animal Health was close by and thought to be connected I thought no. No way. These people know what they are doing. this is just a wild eyed conspiracy theory. Go see a shrink!

However the strain of the virus has been confirmed as the one used on the site. It does not normally occur in animals naturally. It is unclear whether the Institute of Animal Health actually uses it itself, or if it is just used by the private company on the same site, to manufacture a foot and mouth vaccine. Manufacturing has now been suspended.

I do not as yet have the name of the private company, but have to wonder if they donate to Labour?

The good news is that if the Pirbright site was the source of the outbreak then it may well be very limited. There is much work to do though. As an initial precautionary measure the exclusion zones have been extended so as to center on both sites. Now all animal movements from farms in the area need to be traced, where they cross other cattle movements they need to be traced as well and all monitored.

There is plenty of work ahead.

On another note, I was very disappointed to see that several TV channels turned up over the farms with large wind generating machines (helicopters) presumably to do some rubber necking. They may well have spread the disease further and an air exclusion zone was set up. This is deeply irresponsible behavior.

Incidentally if the Pirbright site turns out to be the source, and foot and mouth has already spread, then there will be hell to pay.

The BBC has this.

Iain Dale has this.

Update 5th of August 00:05

Having checked, the company that runs a facility on the Pirbright site is Merial Animal Health, which is jointly owned by Merck and -Sanofi-Aventis.

There is no connection (that I can find) between these companies and any political party.

Foot and mouth outbreak. It is about to get worse

I have been trying to follow the news on the foot and mouth outbreak to find out what sort of farm the out break happened on.

It seems it is a beef fattening farm. this is not good news. It is the sort of business where cattle come and go on a regular basis. It does explain how the farm could have got the disease, and that is by movements of cattle to the farm.

The net result is that there may well be another farm out there with foot and mouth, and worse still, it could have sold cattle all over the country as well as having cross infecting cattle at market.

With a bit of luck though, it won't get that bad. The right actions appear to have been taken in the early stages. now what we need is the paper trail followed up, through to the markets from which this farms cattle came from, and all the farms that have been in contact with those animals.

It will be a lot of work.

Foot and Mouth: government over reacts whilst it does not do enough!

One of the interesting things about government is that there is always someone to say you should have done it another way.

According to reports there has been an outbreak of foot and mouth on a farm in Surrey.

The government has reacted by banning the movement of any cattle except those on its licensing scheme.

Whilst I have not looked in detail at the licensing scheme, this seems the right thing to do at this stage.

Gordon Brown and Hilary Benn have both canceled their holidays, which whilst politically a good move is a bot of an over reaction and very harsh on their families. I do not know the ages of Hilary's children, but Gordon's are young and these times are important.

However, this is either one hell of an over reaction, or it is a bit late. In the case of foot and mouth there probably is not much middle ground.

The outbreak is on a farm with 60 cows. With a bit of luck, it is a small dairy heard, which means that there is not much movement of animals to or from it. If that is the case, then come the end of next week, the "crisis" will be over. However if the farm has traded cattle a lot, then firstly it could have got the infection from somewhere else, and it is spreading elsewhere, or, it still could be spreading elsewhere.

Obviously DEFRA will be looking to see how this farm got foot and mouth as it is not native to this country. It came from somewhere. The same overseas source could well have infected several farms. We just don't know, though there is this story of fear from the Guardian in 2003, about bio terrorists and foot and mouth.

What needs to happen now is that the movement restrictions need to be kept in place. If the out break spreads then the army needs to be called in, sooner rather than later, even though we know they are over stretched. Mass culling needs to happen with infected cattle as soon as possible.

One thing is clear, that the government needs to act swiftly, and be prepared to do the unthinkable. (Vaccinate for example).

House repossessions up 30% - is there about to be a house price crash?

House repossessions are up 30% for the first half of this year compared to the same time last year. (The BBC has this).

This is still low compared to 1991, however it is still the highest since 2001.

Insolvencies are down 8% on the first quarter however they are still very high, even by the standards of 1991. (See my previous article here).

The big question is, will there be a house price crash?

The short answer is probably not because there is quite some pent up demand, due to a lot of first time buyers trying to get into the market and the pressure immigration is putting on the market combined with the relatively small number of houses built.

However there are some dark clouds on the horizon. Between now and Christmas there will be 300,000 mortgages where the fixed rate ends. In some cases repayments may jump by as much as 50%. Those buyers that either overextended themselves to buy, have since run up credit card debts
or have just got used to that level of disposable income there is going to be a lot of belt tightening. In short it is going to hurt.

The economy is in a difficult position. Disaster is not definite, but the economy needs to be handled with some care. One wrong turn to lead to an awful lot of pain.

How real is Gordon Brown's bounce?

One of my favorite sites is politicalbetting.com, mostly written by Mike Smithson.

Today Mike has this article delving deeper into the poll numbers that give us the Brown bounce.

Although once weighted, there is a bounce, there are some oddities in the unweighted numbers, in particular more people saying they voted Conservative in 2005 and less saying they voted Labour, which is causing the shift.

As Mark Senior points out in this comment here, we are also not seeing any bounce at all in real elections, that is council by elections.

In fact the local by-election results over the last month seem to still show a Conservative lead of something like 8%.Now that will not actually translate into a general election lead of 8% but you would expect it to have been dented by a Brown bounce if it is as big as some of the polls say.

Sorry about the lack of posts

hmm..

been busy at work.

Also need to write an article about an iritating zone alarm issue.

The rights of cohabiting couples

Well, the law commissions report on the rights of cohabiting couples is making the news again, so I will say what I said before:

The Law Commission has been sticking its nose where it does not belong in this area for some time.

The issue is that people think that if you live together for 3 months, 6, 12, 2 years or so many full moons you have the rights of a married couple.

You don't.

In fact you have no rights at all. The only place where complications arise is where property is in the names of more than one person, as either tenants in common or joint tenants.

In the former case the proportion owned by each party is a complex balance of who put in what whilst in the latter an equal split is assumed, regardless of the number of joint tenants.

In principle the fact that an intimate makes no legal difference to a case. So it does not matter if you share a bed or not, but rather obviously it does make a bit of an evidential difference.

According to this report in the Times, the Law commission proposes giving unmarried couples the same rights, dropping requirements for a time limit, but adding ones for financial disadvantage.

However the article at almost its last gasp says this:

"Research shows that few people are aware of their lack of rights and many wrongly believe that cohabitation makes them “common law” spouses with rights similar to those of married couples."

That is certainly true, but that only applies to some unmarried couples not all, so the ignorance of the many is being used as an excuse to change the relationship of the rest without dealing with the real problem which is that most people have got it wrong.

It only takes an afternoon to get married in a registry office and it need not cost a lot of money. The issue is that people don't know, and even if they did they would not always want to get married. Getting married carries obligations as well as rights. These proposals seem to confer rights where they did not exist before without adding the rights.

The rules the Law Commission want to bring in appear to be applied to same sex couples as well. What I found interesting is the hostility to these new rules from the gay community who fought for and got the right to have same sex relationships recognised in law who object to the changes because they can see that if you want those rights, you can go and sign up for them today with no change in the law.

All this happens against the backdrop of London becoming the divorce capital of the world. Ellee Seymour has this excellent article highlighting why.

And so it ends, Operation Banner is no more

Thirty eight years ago, Harold Wilson the Prime minister in 1969 sent in the British army, not to put down an insurgency, but to protect Roman Catholics from the Royal Ulster Constabulary.

Time moved on, and at a pace, leaving all confused.

The Provisional IRA took to arms, with their own aims, even going to the disgusting and depraved levels of kidnapping and murdering a mother of 10 who's only transgression was comforting a dying soldier.

There has been much that would revolt decent people from both sides, but at least there is now peace.

Long may it last.

May all the dead rest in peace, and may God watch over them wherever they be.

The BBC has this.