Friday, June 29, 2007

Gordon Brown gets a bounce in the polls

According to reports on Conservative home and Gordon Brown has a bounce.

Figures are not yet clear but an ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow will show Labour on 39% compared to the Conservatives on 35%. Other numbers are not yet available.

I expected some bounce for Brown, but this is a little bigger than expected. I don't think it will last past the conference season, nor is it as big as John Major's bounce in 1990, which took the Conservative party to 49% compared to 39% for Labour. (hat tip to Liberal Tory here for the numbers, but please note that a 17 year old poll is not that good a poll.)

So in essence Gordon Brown does not have the poll lead he needs to guarantee victory in 3 years time and it is touch and go now.

My take is this, Gordon's best chance of getting reelected is to call a general election sooner rather than later. The longer he leaves it the more the "it's time for a change" will count against him.
If he takes this chance and calls a general election for September or October he may get an overall majority, though my money would be on a hung parliament. If he leaves it Labour will lose.

I will add more when I have seen the online reports. There is also a Yougov poll with a Labour lead, Labour 38%, Conservatives 35%, from here.


Anonymous said...

though my money would be on a hung parliament.
A hung parliament, yippeeeeee!
Now form an orderly queue please. I'm first in line to administer the rope!!!

Benedict White said...

Erik, LOL! Now sir you are being unkind!

Anonymous said...

Blair's legacy is to leave a political system that is essentially Presidential. In a Presidential race of Brown v. Anyone-with-a-pulse, Brown comes second. He knows this - which is why he has tried to organise a cabinet of all the talents. Hah! I am reminded of the song "Is that all there is to a disco?" So much for Blinky-Balls "Thursday Surprise". Brown's ploy to surround himself with people of whom so much was expected (and who can therefore be blamed when thy don't deliver) has clearly already failed because these Titans could not be persuaded to go over to the dark side. So Brown will be a lonely target once the economy starts tanking, troops in Iraq keep being killed, the Euro-Constitution - sorry "Treaty" - needs ratifying etc etc etc.

There really was little point in Cameron investing much energy in beating up on Blair - Blair was going. I do hope, though, that Cameron starts slicing peices off Brown in the coming months - and justifies my faith (and vote) in him. He should have both the ammunition and the targets.

Plus there's Levy. When that case gets going (hurrah!) Gordon will keep facing the question two - as he spent all the money that came in, what did he know? And when did he know about how that money was procured? Watch him squirm on that one. It's "when did you stop beating your wife" territory for Brown. He either knew where the money was coming from - or didn't know. Both outcomes show he is not fit for the top job.

I strongly suspect that after the end of August, Brown's numbers are going to go only one way. Right up to the election.

PS I haven't met anyone yet who is remotely enthused about him. Many loathe him already. And today's FT piece about reducing funding for ENGLISH hospitals could be the first of many snipes about his Scottishness.

CityUnslicker said...

He will go early if he can I am sure. he only needs to be level in the polls for a majority of about 10 as far as I can see.

The lead may fade as events overtake him, but then who knows, after Grammar schools I don't have so much faith in DC leading the Tories, we still seem pretty divided and not hungry enough for power.

Anonymous said...

I think Browns bounce has been punctured ,bombs in London and now problems in Glasgow ,the media have gone away from him ,at least for the weekend and he can't do anything about it.

Anonymous said...

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Jack Harrison
Chicago, IL

loadofoldstodge said...

You'll not be surprised to hear I think your overall take on this is quite wrong, Benedict.

A few polls with a 3-5% lead are no more indicative of a Labour GE victory than all those polls with big Tory leads last year indicated a Conservative GE victory.

Mike doesn't know on and I don't either. I suspect the election will still be in 2010. Against the poll you quoted from Liberal Tory, Major waited until almost the last moment - I think Brown will do the same.

The acid test for DC is coming and coming fast. He's had an incredibly easy and lucky time since becoming leader and life is going to get much tougher.

If Brown is going to be "different" from Blair, the illusion of Governmental "change" will be as effective as when another Chancellor became Prime Minister in 1990. Cameron has to now be not only different from Blair but different from Brown too.